Waiting for Boof

2005-01-27T23:53:00.000-08:00

Waiting for Boof has moved!

The new site is http://www.mccoveychronicles.com.

If you are not automatically redirected in five seconds, it's because I don't know how to do that.

Saying Goodbye

2005-01-21T07:31:00.000-08:00

Saying Goodbye to Waiting for Boof

This site has grown from around a hundred regular readers to about two hundred regular readers. I have you to thank. The second hundred, I mean. The first hundred obviously didn't promote my site enough. The first hundred can sit in the corner, and think about what they've done.

I started the site as a way to practice my writing. As it turns out, there are a good number of people who enjoy bathroom humor, throwaway pop culture, and making themselves feel better by casting value judgements on athletes they have never met. Some of those people found their way here. I hope I have delivered.

Now, however, it is time to end Waiting for Boof. The days of poor HTML, ugly formatting, and bi-weekly posts are over. Enter:

McCovey Chronicles

This is the new site. It will feature daily updates, a snazzy logo, and much more interactive features. Also, a snazzy logo. It's the exact same idea behind Waiting for Boof, with the following exceptions:

1. The name.

2. The daily post thing. Also, there will be an open thread posted for every game where we can cheer every Matheny triple and Rueter punchout in real time. Why just ignore your loved ones by watching the game on television? You can also be on the computer, discussing what you're watching on television with total strangers.

3. You will have an uncontrollable urge to click on the ads. It's okay. Run with that feeling. I'm sure (product or service offered by advertiser) will be of great use to you.

4. The format. There is a strong interactive element to the site now. The "diaries" section allows you your own ranting space. It has been described as a "blog within the blog", and that description fits. If you disagree with what I write, start a diary and title it, "This Guy is an Idiot". People can then comment on your writing. While the diaries will allow readers to share their opinions with others, the focus is still on me. Throughout the changes, let us not lose sight of what's important here¹.

More content and better interactivity are key in this new venture, and I'm very excited about it all. Thanks to everyone who has read Waiting for Boof, and I look forward to seeing you on McCovey Chronicles.

¹_Me.

2005-01-20T08:12:00.000-08:00

Check back late tonight or early tomorrow for a very important Waiting for Boof. Perhaps as important as your wedding and D-Day rolled into one. Maybe as important as that episode where Angela and Tony finally get together, despite Mona's salacious wisecracks. Or, perhaps as important as the Chronicle moving their crossword puzzle to the classified section, though even that still managed to bunch up some drawers.

You'll just have to come back and see, won't you? Wait! Don't take my coy take-it-or-leave-it attitude seriously. Please, please come back. I get so...lonely.

Ten

2005-01-06T01:18:00.000-08:00

(Baseball America's) credibility isn't worth a damn to me," he said. "I don't know what they use for a formula to decide what's a good organization and what isn't. Detroit was their No. 1 organization for three straight years, and obviously Detroit was getting an opportunity to draft at an excellent spot. However, none of those people have helped them win any games. So how do you feel about that organization being No. 1 now?

That was a quote from the director of player development for the Giants, Jack Hiatt, in response to a Chronicle article about the Giants minor-league system. Hoo. Must feel nice to get that off your chest, Jack. One little problem, though. Detroit was never the number one organization in any of Baseball America's rankings. They were never really close, much less at the top spot for three straight years.

Here's what the amatuer sleuth in me can piece together. Jack Hiatt is the director of player development for the Giants. He has heard of this magazine which employs professional writers to gather and distill opinions about minor leaguers. He doesn't read the magazine. He hears of the content second-hand, maybe from dirty limericks etched into urinal walls at minor league ballparks. This confirms his suspicions that other people's opinions are bad, and he quietly resumes his work of not producing any hitters.

Am I warm? Because the track record of the organization is so poor, at least with respect to hitters, the list of plausible explanations is thinning. No one has perfect scouts. The Yankees can't buy perfect scouts. Paul Depodesta can't make one with his computer, a la Weird Science, though it is easy to picture him wearing a bra on his head as he looks up his stats. The Giants haven't produced a good outfielder since the movie Weird Science was released, though. The last all-star position players produced by the organization have retired.

Someone in the organization can spot pitchers, though. Jerome Williams is poised to become more than the average starter he already is, and Noah Lowry's changeup allowed him an easy transition into the majors. Matt Cain one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, behind only Felix Hernandez of the Mariners in most rankings. Merkin Valdez was a throw-in to a trade, which makes everyone pay a bit more attention to subsequent throw-ins, like Alfredo Simon.

The recent strategy of politely declining draft picks is fodder for a column of its own.

The top ten prospects, in the uninformed opinion of a man who relies heavily on just a handful of internet sources:

1. Matt Cain

Baseball America had him as the number one prospect entering the season. It was somewhat of a bold call, as Cain was a teenage pitcher coming off an injury. Bold like a fox, it turns out, as Cain had a tremendous year. He was one of very few teenagers in the California League, and he dominated. Other general managers call each other on the phone, rolling around the bed in their pajamas, twirling the phone cord around their finger, and just giggling at the mere mention of Cain.

He has poise and superlative stuff, they say. Pitches beyond his years, they say. They absolutely love him, as they are wont to do. If he were to burst on the scene in a Dontrelle Willis-type fashion, it wouldn't be a complete shock. If his elbow were to melt into melted gruyere, that also wouldn't be a complete shock. So it goes with young pitchers, but you knew that.

Quote from the future:

"I would have loved to stay in San Francisco. I just couldn't turn down a chance to pitch for the Yankees. Also, a chance to make $100,000,0000. You see that extra zero, defying all laws of standard numerical notation? The Yankees can actually do that sort of thing."

2. Nate Schierholtz

The first of several irresponsible overrankings, Schierholtz is this high for a couple of reasons. The first is my tendency to overrate players who tear up a league full of older players. The difference between the strength of a 21-year old and a 23-year old is relevant though, and that's without taking into account the experience handicap they face.

The other factor with this slotting is the only reason scouts aren't uniformly wild about him is his defense. Yeah, the bat is there, it goes. But where is he going to play? The Giants will find a place, and that shouldn't dim the star of a kid who slugs over .550 before he can buy booze. Early returns on his play indicate he will not win a gold glove, but is also not in danger of causing the apocalypse with his play in rightfield.

Quote from the future:

"I was all set to start my first game as an outfield prospect on the Giants. Man, was I excited! Then, there was a bright, blinding light. I went towards the light, and found myself in a room with pure white walls. Calvin Murray was there. Adam Hyzdu was there. Jacob Cruz and Steve Hosey were playing cribbage. It was so peaceful and beautiful. The next thing I know, I'm 33 and out of organized baseball. That's what prompted the lawsuit."

3. Merkin Valdez

Merkin is carrying a heavy load, trying to make people forget about the one-sidedness of the Russ Ortiz trade to this point. The scouts love him, but there are a couple of strikes against him. He is now 22, and has yet to have much extended success above San Jose. The fastball is there, and the slider isn't far behind, though he didn't flash it much in his limited big-league action. That magical third pitch, reportedly required to enter the VIP room at Club Legit Starter, is still a work in progress.

His fastball has some serious life to it, though. If he locates his fastball decently and junks the other pitches, he could still have a Felix Rodriguez-type career. That's nothing to be ashamed of at all, but it would be much nicer if he could make it as a starter.

Quote from the future:

"It means what in english?"

4. David Aardsma

The best relievers are made, and not born. Very few of the elite college closers drafted, with Matt Anderson being the favorite horror story told around the campfire, have fufilled their promise at the major league level. It is an interesting trend to think of in general terms, but in individual terms it probably means nothing. Aardsma had a nice year in AAA, which was impressive considering he had only 18 innings of professional experience before the season started. He has a chance to start the year in the majors. If he gives the Giants 60 innings of sub-4.00 pitching this year, his acquisition would already be a success.

Quote from the future:

"As the last first-round pick taken by the Giants until the fiasco of '18, I felt a certain responsibility to be great. As a reliever for the Giants, though, I felt another -- stronger -- responsibility to completely fall apart in the playoffs. I stand by my choice."

5. Eddy Martinez-Esteve

A 2004 draftee, Martinez-Esteve is constantly being compared with Manny Ramirez. Can't field anywhere, but can flippin' hit. Or, as the scouts truncate it, CFABCFH. Scouts are worried Schierholtz might not find a position, but they are certain Martinez-Esteve doesn't have one. Again, that is not worth worrying about at this point. Anyone who claws their way out of the masoleum known as the Giants minor-league system with their ability to hit still intact is going to be a fan favorite, even if they can't catch a weak pop-up.

He'll likely start in AA, and slowly start to suck. Hey, it's not what I hope happens, but I've been following the Giants and their hitting prospects for a while now.

Quote from the future:

"Look, the important thing isn't that I caught the ball with my ass after swallowing my glove and falling down. The important thing is that I caught the ball. And hit three doubles."

6. Pat Misch

Misch resides in that shaded area of the Venn diagram where Brian Sabean and Billy Beane meet. He has had good balance with his strikeout and walk numbers through his college and pro careers, but some high ERAs allowed him to drop to the 7th round. The left-hander has mowed through his first two pro seasons, surviving a precipitous promotion from short season-A to AA. He will likely be on the Brad Hennessey path this year, filling in and spot starting when needed, and should be a nice, cheap fourth starter for the team in the future

Quote from the future:

"What is 'The Shed', and why do people keep asking me if they can hang out there?"

7. Travis Ishikawa

Another wild overranking, sure, but Ishikawa has potential. He still has three years until the word "potential" isn't mentioned within the first minute, but it'll do for now. He either strikes out, walks, or hits the spittle out of the ball; usually going for the first option, unfortunately. Still, he finished the season very strong in San Jose. His pretty swing, combined with a willingness to take a walk, makes a personal favorite.

Quote from the future:

"When I made the majors, the veterans made me wear a dress as part of a hazing ritual. I thought that would be my lowest point in the majors, even though it was in good fun. Then I was traded for Shawn Estes...."

8. Craig Whitaker

He makes the list only because you can see the ribs of the Giants farm system. That, and he's talented enough to regularly throw the ball by kids just out of college. Young, throws hard, no control, and has about a 13% chance of ever being an above-average major leaguer. If he does make it, though, it'll be fun.

Quote from the future:

"What's a VHS tape?"

9. Fred Lewis

He had a nice season in San Jose. There is no getting around that. However, he was 23, and struck out a lot in single-A. He has tools, and added a touch of power, a category where he was previously south of Neifi. If he can do the same thing in AAA, he'll rocket up this list. This is probably as low as you'll see him ranked.

Quote from the future:

"Baseball America ranked me where? Well, that's nice and all, but my career's probably ruined after Waiting for Boof's comments. I could taste the doubt. General managers rely on him pretty heavily, so I'm getting a bunch of applications together for law school."

10. (tie) Todd Linden

Dimensional Vortex Leading to Ethereal Graveyard of Failed Giants Outfield Prospects, Todd. Todd, Dimensional Vortex Leading to Ethereal Graveyard of Failed Giants Outfield Prospects. His strikeout numbers went through the roof, though his homerun power started to show up. There is still a chance Linden can put it together in his age-25 season. It's hard to believe how well he started his minor-league career right out of college. He's ranked this low to compensate for his top ranking last year.

If you have children, please keep them away from his winter-league stats. Not that they mean anything. The stats, that is, not your children.

Quote from the future:

"It turns out the Curse of the Giants Outfield is passed on with a traditional speech. When Armando Rios gave it, it reminded me of Christopher Walken in Pulp Fiction. Fascinating stuff, really."

10. (tie) Lance Niekro

Before the 2004 season, it seemed as if ol' Lance would have to perfect his knuckler if he ever wanted more than a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Then he added power. Sweet, sweet power. He needs to ditch the Body by Drew tapes, and stay healthy for a full season. And though his walk rate has climbed each pro season or so, he still has a long way to go. This ranking is probably too generous, but his last 200 at-bats were that promising. His upside is Pedro Feliz with more contact, less power.

Quote from the future:

"Son, I had a nice career as a utility player. I regret nothing. Well, except for the time I duct taped Hoyt Wilhelm's grandson to a flagpole and emptied a fire extinguisher on him. He shouldn't have mouthed off like that, but still...."

The one major exclusion from this list is Brad Hennessey. Not that this is a terrible thing, but I can't shake the Tim Worrell comparision stuck in my head since I first watched him. As such, he didn't make the cut. Hennessey has a nice slider and a decent fastball, but he just doesn't seem like a good bet to be a successful starter. He and Kevin Correia seem interchangable at this point, though Correia has had slightly better strikeout/walk ratios. The Giants seem to like Hennessey, and they do have some credibility when it comes to the evaluation of pitchers, so hopefully this snub turns out to be a huge mistake.

If the Giants had Lowry, Williams, and Jesse Foppert still in the system, the list would be a lot more pitcher-heavy, and a lot more impressive. It would be nice if the team had some in-house replacements in the event of an injury, but there isn't much of a chance of injury with the Giants team of 2005.

2) Comment starter of the week: Your top ten prospects. Or top five. Or Steve Decker memories. Go nuts.

Offseason, go away.

2004-12-22T23:37:00.000-08:00

Clever Pun Involving Mohr/More Homophone and Urine Joke

1) In Fellini's Ghostbusters, the protagonists are given an impossible task. They were faced with a phantom who could take the physical form of their worst fears, and so were asked to not think of anything at all. We, as Giants fans, have a duty here. It is imperative, absolutely necessary, that no one think of Glenallen Hill right now. There is a time and a pl...hey! No thinking about Glenallen Hill! Seriously.

Forget what it was like to watch someone play right field like they were Joe Cocker in a golf cart. Don't think about it, and maybe it won't happen. Moises Alou was signed to a two-year deal, or will sign soon according to ESPN Deportes and the AP. Mixed feelings, mixed feelings, mixed feelings.

Point

Alou had an excellent season last year.

Counterpoint

He was great at home, but was no better than Michael Tucker on the road.

Point

Yeah, but that was probably an anomaly. It isn't like Wrigley Field is a huge hitter's park anymore.

Counterpoint

Sure, but his road stats have been pretty static over the last few years. If anything was a fluke, it was his home stats last year.

Point
It is still more comforting to see his name in the lineup over Michael Tucker. And Tucker is back to the role which suits him best, as a super-sub.

Counterpoint

In the lineup it looks better, sure. But what of the loss on defense? Alou has no arm and no range.

Point

Mike Matheny and Omar Vizquel will not allow balls to drop.

Counterpoint

But they play different positions, hundreds of feet away from Alou. How...

Point

MIKE MATHENY AND OMAR VIZQUEL WILL NOT ALLOW BALLS TO DROP. They are the truth and light, quenching that which must be sated.

Counterpoint

Wait a sec. You aren't a legitimate viewpoint at all, are you? You're just a brainwashed optimist.

Point

No. Wait. Maybe. That isn't relevant. Alou will help this team.

Counterpoint

Wrong. He will hurt the team on the field, and with payroll constraints around the trade deadline. Also, the guy urinates on his hands to toughen them up. That just ain't right.

Point
I know a guy who drunkenly tried to urinate into the mouth of a stone gargoyle, thinking it was hollow. It was definitely solid, though, and the urine went everywhere, including all over the guy's hands. His hands didn't toughen up; not by a long shot. All it got him was a kink in his neck when he woke up in the bathtub, covered with a bathmat and his own vomit. It took quite a bit of cajoling to get my girlfriend to talk to me again. His girlfriend, I mean.

Wait, what were we talking about, again?

The heart says Alou has one more year in him, and his bat will compensate for his glove. The mind says Alou will be old, likely injured, ineffective with the bat, and terrible with the glove. Alou has been a plus hitter more often than not in his career, but he is going to be 39 next year. Worrying about a hitting decline isn't the top concern, however. That hand wringing is saved for Alou's ability to hunt down prospective triples in rightfield.

If Alou manages to be an acceptable fielder, which is somewhere past unlikely, there is still the ripple effect created by this move. Marquis Grissom will have to stay in center if no one else is acquired. That's three players with declining range in a huge outfield. That's a bold combination, in the gallon of bleach, gallon of ammonia, and sealed garden shed sense of bold.

There has to be a defensive-minded centerfielder on the way. Sabean can't spend his offseason trying to, correctly or not, rustle up vats of elixir for the Giants fielding woes, and then turn around to give a substantial contract to someone who might make us pine for the Benardian era of yore. The names of the centerfielders available are not attractive, however. Dave Roberts fetched a pretty good chunk of change in trade, and he is a good option only with some serious accounting tricks .

The Alou move makes the offense a bit more interesting. It makes the defense waaay more interesting. The money doesn't matter, really. Two years isn't a killer, and the millions weren't going to go to Carlos Beltran. The thumbs-up/down portion of this move is suspended until there is some personal observation of the guy actually playing some rightfield. Maybe he isn't Glenallen Hill.

Crap. Wasn't supposed to think of that guy....

2) Henry Schulman, intrepid Giants beatnik of the Chronicle, is one of the best in the business. Every so often, he'd poke his head in the sewing club known as alt.sports.baseball.sf-giants and shoot the breeze. The denizens of asbsf-g would harp about the importance of on-base percentage with almost every visit. Schulman would listen. He didn't run out and get Bill James' face tattooed on his inner thigh, but he listened. Slowly, he started to work on-base percentage into his daily recaps. This was before Barry Bonds made on-base percentage even a little sexy with his record-setting seasons, and well before "Moneyball".

So it comes as no surprise the way he wrote up the Dustan Mohr debacle. There is a tone of incredulity in the opening part of the article. The rest of the piece is a standard recounting of the move. The best part, however, was saved for last:

After a terrible start in 2004, Mohr finished with a .274 average. His .394 on-base percentage was third-best on the team among those with more than 200 at-bats.

What a twist of the knife. Schulman's job isn't to editorialize, but there might be some lines to read between at the end of the piece. Maybe that's reading too much into what was merely thorough reporting. It likely made Brian Sabean google the term, "on-base percentage", though. Here's hoping more came up than on-base percentage themed porn. Big in Japan, they say.

The first reaction was emotional. It's one thing to treat first-round draft picks like ridiculous luxuries; like 18-inch rims made out of caviar, or something. It's another thing to claim poverty when the team has a fat cable contract and outstanding attendance. But pretending to not be able to afford a bench player in his first year of arbitration is the kind of fraud which should lead to key conspirators being frog-marched out of 24 Willie Mays Plaza in handcuffs.

Then the interviews behind the move came out. It wasn't about the money. Sweet mercy, it wasn't about the money. It was the Giants taking a long look at a player. This player took walks. He hit for power. He threw his body all around the park, crashing into walls and diving into the stands. The fans loved him. His teammates loved him. He could play all three outfield positions. He was going to be cheap.

The Giants looked at this player, and said, no, that's just not what we're looking for. No thanks, we can do better. "E" for effort, young man, but we don't want any of those things. Maybe if you put on a fez and drove a little red car out to your position, like the rest of the Shriners we prefer to have on our team, we would have considered you. Now, scram.

After the rage subsided, there was an unwilling acceptance of what the Giants did. Tony Torcato has his faults, but it is also important to look at what he can bring to a bench. He's an extreme contact hitter who is exactly the right call off the bench with a runner on third, and less than two outs. He has experience at third and first in an emergency. As the last hitter on a bench, Torcato is a fine option, and even has a sliver of upside. Torcato is out of options, and would need to clear waivers if he didn't make the team.

Assuming the Giants are going to carry 12 pitchers again, after the eight starters there are five bench spots. Yorvit, Deivi, Marquis, and Tucker are guaranteed spots. That left a choice between Mohr and Torcato. Mohr wasn't left-handed, had no experience in the infield, and was already into his arbitration years. Those are some pretty serious strikes against him. Yet, and this is very important now, Torcato isn't especially good. If the stars were to align perfectly, we could see in our wildest dreams a Tony Torcato who hits .310/.330/.430 in the big leagues. It is more likely Torcato is going to be a poor-man's A.J. Pierzynski without the ability to catch, regardless of how well he's hitting in winter ball.

Mohr had exactly one good season under his belt since he was in AA, so there is no guarantee his last season was indicative of his talent level, but he was already one of my favorite Giants. This hurts. It is understandable where Sabean was coming from, but it doesn't get the taste out of my mouth. Grissom should have had his option declined. The team should have contemplated an 11-man pitching staff. The team should have figured out a way to keep Mohr. Something. Anything. Damn.

2004-12-14T22:56:00.000-08:00

Headline: Madalyn Murray 0'Hair Rises From Grave, Exclaims, "I Told You So"

I direct your attention to the flaming wreck in the ditch by the side of the road. People are running around, frantic. Babies are crying. A siren moans in the distance. This is what happened the last time the Giants experimented with the all-defense, absolutely-no-offense player in Neifi Perez. In six million years, Venutian anthropologists are going to uncover cave paintings of tiny stick figures recoiling in horror from a charcoal likeness of Neifi. Brian Sabean saw as much, and released Neifi with about 20% of his contract left.

Enter Mike Matheny. He is older, and more likely to break down than Neifi ever was. He is just as bad a hitter as Neifi ever was. The Giants had a better, cheaper option to Matheny already in the system. This is the worst move of Brian Sabean's career. This is Brian Sabean drinking rubbing alcohol and hitting on his brother's wife, because this is as low as our fearless general manager can get.

The lack of rational thought behind this move is staggering. After the deal was announced, countless Giants fans were refreshing CNN.com and Google News, hoping to see if authorities had arrested Yorvit Torrealba for planting that pipe bomb under a bus filled with nuns. Slowly, the unthinkable became obvious. Torrealba, in fact, did not plant a pipe bomb under a bus filled with nuns. There was officially no reason to panic and sign Matheny. For three years. And $10.5 million dollars. Good gravy.

The chatter coming from this organization is reminiscent of The Manchurian Candidate.

Reporter:
"Say, what prompted you to sign Matheny?"

Ned Colleti:
"Mike Matheny is the greatest, kindest, grittiest, most gifted defensive catcher I've ever known in my life."

Reporter:
"Great! How about you Mr. Sabean? Give us your thoughts on Matheny."

Brian Sabean:
"Mike Matheny is the greatest, kindest, grittiest, most gifted defensive catcher I've ever known in my life."

Just wait, everyone cries! Mike Matheny can block balls in the dirt like no one else! Mike Matheny calls the best game in the major leagues! Mike Matheny can catch stealing runners just by spitting the ball out, like Snoopy does! Whatever. If he were that much better than your garden variety catcher, it would be obvious. If he were $10M more of a defender than Torrealba, who is a fine defensive catcher in his own right, it would be provable in some capacity. Instead:

2004 Cardinals team ERA: 3.75
When Matheny was catching: 3.89

2003 Cardinals team ERA: 4.60
When Matheny was catching: 4.58

2002 Cardinals team ERA: 3.70
When Matheny was catching: 3.48

2001 Cardinals team ERA: 3.93
When Matheny was catching: 4.03

2000 Cardinals team ERA: 4.38
When Matheny was catching: 4.34

There was no discernable difference when Mike Matheny was catching a game over the Cardinals backup. No discernable difference. Catcher's ERA is not a perfect stat, but you'd think if Matheny were $10M better defensively than Torrealba, it could be quantified in some respect. There really isn't much of a difference in the rate with which they throw out runners on the basepaths, either.

Sabean would never agree with the above. You can't put stats on leadership, he might say. Or calling a great game. Or working with young pitchers. Leadership, man, leadership. Here is Brian Sabean, then, as he buys a used car:

"It has 180,000 miles on it, and the transmission needs work. But,"

The salesman leans closer and whispers

"It's surrounded by magical pixies. Pixies which keep your family safe."

"I can't see any pixies."

"Oh, well they aren't the sort of thing you can see. But they are there, alright."

"Hmm. And what does this car cost?"

"Keeping in mind the pixies now, this baby can be had for only $20,000."

"I'll give you $30,000."

"Sold."

"Give me a pen, before you change your mind!"

If you are going to play the leadership card, you might as well admit you believe in the pixies as well. If there is a general manager who believes Matheny's aura, or intangibles, or je ne sais quoi is worth $10M over three years, he is not fit to manage a lemonade stand.

This is terrible on so many levels. The Giants are going to pay $10M to a guy who will make the team worse. That's $10M they could have given to a guy like Nomar Garciaparra, who is trying to prove himself with a one-year deal following a down year. That's $10M they could have given to a guy like Preston Wilson, who is in the final year of an overpriced contract, and available for a sack of dirty socks. That's $10M they could have given to Jerome Williams, Noah Lowry, or Jesse Foppert to buy out arbitration years in the event just one of them is worth keeping. Instead, they have made the team worse.

If we grant that Matheny is superior defensively to Torrealba, which he likely is, there is still the matter of offense. Torrealba's worst season at the plate in his young career was better than Matheny's best season. Torrealba has shown flashes of power, and definitely runs better than the average catcher. There is an upside, fer crying out loud. He might never be as good as he was in his rookie season, but there was a chance. There is nothing to hope for from Matheny. The following is an actual quote from the Oakland Tribune, describing why the Giants would prefer to have Matheny start over Torrealba:

The Giants are wary of sacrificing offense when they still haven't found an RBI man to protect Barry Bonds in the lineup.

After reading this sentence, there was a knock at my front door. A lawyer handed me papers. It seems that my brain immediately filed a restraining order against me for ingesting that sentence. I'll miss you, you pink bastard. So, someone in the front office had a panic attack, and exclaimed, gee, if we get rid of A.J., we'll be sacrificing offense! Okay, fine. But which idiot poked his head out of the opium den and said, "You're right. Get me the agent of Mike Matheny"? You can spread that kind of stupidity on a sandwich. One more quote:

"(Matheny) also drove in 50 runs last year -- that's something to be proud of." -- Brian Sabean

What kind of last-place-in-the-4th-grade-spelling-bee crap is this? Matheny was on the best offensive team in the National League. Every time he came up, the bases were crawling with runners. Does Sabean really evaluate players as if he were a first-year rotisserie player?

I've defended Sabean in the past. He deals with these players in person. He can attach personalities and scouting reports to the stats. He knows these guys. There is so much to building a baseball team that we amateurs likely can't grasp. That just doesn't apply here. Sabean used outdated thinking to obtain an anachronism of a catcher. Matheny is an aging catcher with declining defensive skills, and one who has never hit much better than the average NL pitcher. For this, the Giants will pay a healthy sum of money.

The Giants dodged a bullet when Steve Finley rejected a 3-year, $18M contract. However, while the Giants were unconsciously dodging bullets, they were intentionally descending waist-deep in fire ants to wait for the Enola Gay. When the reports came out about this signing, there was hope. "Pending a physical", the article read. It is the first time in my life I hoped for a family of beavers to be living inside the knee of another human being, trying to make a dam out of ligaments. It is not something to be proud of. But this was the worst move of Brian Sabean's career, and there was still a hope it could be saved.

Also, I was not in favor of the decision to sign Mike Matheny.

2) It's a shame that Sabean had to ass his team up right before demonstrating one of his greatest strengths as a talent evaluator. The Giants signed the following interesting bullpen arms to minor league contracts:

Armando Almanza
Matt Kinney
Jeremy Fikac
Brandon Puffer
Brandon Villafuerte

It's a long shot for any of them to contribute next year, but they are good risks to take. Brendan Donnelly is the ultimate example, but guys like Kiko Calero emerge every year on a more modest scale. Any of those five names are just as likely to do so as the minor league veterans around the league who do break out this season.

Of course, this is like getting a "I'm Sorry I Kicked Your Dog" greeting card after a guy kicks your dog. The hurt and distrust is still there, Brian.

3) Aadik, an incredibly prolific regular at Baseball Primer, has started a blog about the Giants here. Check him out. And when I say regular, I mean regular. Not in a fiber kind of way, but in a George Wendt from "Cheers" kind of way. We're all looking forward to some good stuff, Aadik.

Wagon Fulla Pamcakes?

2004-12-06T13:42:00.000-08:00

The bidding starts at $800,000 for my new screenplay, entitled, "Bonds and Giambi Light Schoolchildren on Fire". Hollywood-types, take note:

PROSECUTOR:
The vial of clear liquid?

BONDS:
Flaxseed oil.

PROSECUTOR:
The vat of cream?

BONDS:
Arthritic balm

PROSECUTOR:
How about Exhibit H? A brown paper bag, with the word "Steroids" written in Sharpie on the front. Inside, there are steroids. Stapled to the bag is note which reads, "Dear Barry; Enjoy the 'roids. Love, Greg (Your Trainer and Childhood Friend)". Hmm?

BONDS:
He mispelled "Rolaids".

PROSECUTOR:
And what of the steroids inside the bag?

BONDS:
They have a lot to answer for at the Rolaids plant. I'm trying to get rid of gas, and then I get all huge? That's not right.

PROSECUTOR:
Are you still gassy?

BONDS:
A little.

When filming the scene with Bonds' edgy and impressively ignorant comments, Juror #3 should be played by Pauly Shore after consuming a liter of NyQuil. If this does not convey the right amount of rank stupidity, it might be advisable to hit Mr. Shore over the head with a canoe paddle right before his performance.

JUROR #3:
So, like, if you're so totally rich, right, why don't you buy your trainer a mansion? What kind of rich person isn't passing out mansions like Halloween Milk Duds? Give him a mansion! I want a mansion! Mansions for all! Hooray!

BONDS:
No way. I'm a black man, and I have to keep my money. White people have all the money. So do Asians. I've watched TV. I've seen Tom Vu. He built a real estate empire up from the ground. He's got his money, his cars, and his beautiful women. I'm keeping my money. You don't see black men build an empire like Tom Vu.

Well, now you do. Now you have. I am the black Tom Vu, and I'm intending to keep it that way.

The courtroom erupts in spontaneous applause.

My people will be in touch with your people, Pauly. Back to the courtroom:

PROSECUTOR:
Can you translate this: "Barry 12-2-02, T, 1 cc G - pee"? Does that correspond to you getting, you know, growth hormones or testosterone or giving a urine test or anything of those things that you can recall from Mr. Anderson?

BONDS:
T could mean anything. G could mean anything. Pee could mean, uh, almost anything urine-related.

PROSECUTOR:
How about this: "Barry 10-3-03, 6 shrts, 2 pnts, hvy. starch, TICKET #2109"?

BONDS:
I have an idea about this one.

PROSECUTOR:
Are you using, or have you ever used, the starch?

BONDS:
The what?

PROSECUTOR:
Are you starched to the gills right now? As we speak? Tell me the truth!

BONDS:
I don't kn....

PROSECUTOR:
The truth, Mr. Bonds! I can handle it! Please, ask me if I can handle it. C'mon, ask me if I can handle it! I really can, you know.

BONDS:
I'm not sure of the question. Starch? I, uh, had yams for dinner last night.

PROSECUTOR:
I'll see you in hell, starcher.

Even though privacy concerns and due process are so 2000, there might be a vocal minority who want to hear how grand jury testimony from a Federal trial was leaked. Phhppt. Whiners. In any case:

DEEP THROAT:
Take this. It's the entire grand jury testimony.

REPORTER:
Cool. We'll work on the story tonight. But, if I may ask, why are you wearing a trenchcoat, and trying to hide your face?

DEEP THROAT:
This goes far deeper than you could ever imagine. You are not safe with this information. If you knew exactly who gave you this information, your safety would be compromised even more. My safety would be in jeopardy, as well.

REPORTER:
But, haven't we received several illegal leaks from you before, Mr. Novitsky? It all seemed to work out fine.

DEEP THROAT:
Gaah! How did you know my name?

Deep Throat releases a smoke bomb, and jumps off the top of the parking garage, parachuting safely down.

DEEP THROAT (while falling):
I'll get you for this, Bonds! I mean, Reporter!

It all leads back to the courtroom drama, though. That's the meat of the story:

PROSECUTOR:
Do you know why BALCO would have been testing for your testosterone level?

BONDS:
I have no idea.

PROSECUTOR:
Do you know why your testosterone level would have been -- according to the report -- higher than the level, the normal range indicated for males 29 to 49 years old?

BONDS:
Why don't you get me a beer, and then we'll talk about it, wimp? WOOOOOOO-HOOOOARRRRGGGH!

Bonds slaps the stenographer high-five.

BONDS:
I, uh.... I am, uh.... What just happened? I kind of blacked out....

Unfortunately, the whole thing is a little Bonds-centric right now. Rest assured, however, there will be plenty of scenes with the rest of the cast.

PROSECUTOR:
So, uh...

He tries to stifle a giggle.

Where did you inject the steroids?

GIAMBI:
In my butt.

PROSECUTOR:
I'm sorry, but we couldn't hear that back here. Could you repeat it?

GIAMBI:
I injected the steroids in my butt.

The prosecutor is trying not to explode in laughter. He "shssh"s the lawyers behind him, who are giggling uncontrollably with their heads on the table in front of them.

PROSECUTOR:
I hate to do this to you, but the air conditioning is making this weird humming sound, and I couldn't hear you. I'm sorry, but one last time, where did you inject the steroids?

GIAMBI:
In my butt.

PROSECUTOR:
In your butt.

GIAMBI:
Yes.

PROSECUTOR:
You did say your butt, right?

GIAMBI:
YES! ALRIGHT! I SHOT DRUGS INTO MY ASS! ARE YOU HAPPY? YES!

Deafening laughter fills the courtroom at this point. People are wiping tears away from the laughter, only to start up again.

PROSECUTOR:
No further questions. Thank you Mr. Giambi, I'm sure we will get to the bottom of this.

Oliver Stone, I believe the next move is yours.

2) If you were hoping for a more serious post about the scandal, you're in luck. Hours upon hours of work in the lab have produced this, the distillation of every steroid-related article:

What Bonds Did
by Major Reporter

Steroids and our children. National pastime. What would they think back then? Our heroes. Oh, our sweet heroes. Banned or suspension? Neither or both. Cheating equals wrong in my book.

Clean it up, Mr. Selig! Asterisk? Perhaps, but no. Game will go on. Must go on. Darker times than this. Darkest time ever? No, yes, no. Not my child. Thank you.

The Winter Meetings can not come soon enough.

3) The fine folks over at SFist took the time to ask me a few questions here. If you ever had a hankering to know my real name, or see a picture of an enormous cat being exploited, head on over.

New blog alert: Splash Landings. Go! Like the wind!

Hey, At Least They Were Yankees He Was Drilling in the Back

2004-12-01T08:34:00.000-08:00

Hey, At Least They Were Yankees He Was Drilling in the Back

Trust me, you were in for a treat. If you get juiced thinking about trade scenarios revolving around Buddy Carlyle and Colter Bean, you would have loved the post I just shelved. Does the mad shuffling of Rule 5 draftees and six-year minor league free agents keep you up at night? Would. Have. Loved it.

Instead, the Giants got the best reliever on the free agent market, and answered most of the bullpen questions at the same time. Armando Benitez is going to be overpaid, sure. And he is, or at least was in his youth, a card-carrying goofball. However, he was the best reliever available. If there was any inclination to trade the remaining vestiges of the farm system for Ugueth Urbina, it's gone now.

There is a school of thought -- and I'm at least taking correspondence courses from this school -- that you shouldn't pay out huge salaries to closers. Closers are everywhere, waiting to be found. There was a piece of sublime ridiculousness in the idea of the Giants front office picking Dustin Hermanson off the top of the recycle bin, then turning around and feeding him a multi-year deal to be a closer. He was just a guy. He didn't have some latent closer aura churning beneath his mortal trappings, waiting to be released by meditation and, apparently, ridiculous facial hair rituals. He was tried as a closer earlier in his career, in 2000, and he stunk.

If you have to pay a closer big money, make sure he's more than acceptable. Danny Graves is going to make...wait, let me look this up...a squajillion dollars next year. He isn't who you would want to overpay. Armando Benitez has been one of the better relievers in the NL for a good long while. He's been durable and consistent. He isn't going to have the year again which he had last year, that seems like a safe bet, but he's in the upper strata of closers. Benitez isn't Gagne or Rivera, but he's just a notch below. Overpaying him isn't ideal, but there are worse ways to spend the money.

And he is being paid way too much. That's obvious. Armando Benitez and Omar Vizquel are going to combine to make a whole lot of clams next year. It is a very distinct possibility that Vizquel is going to hit .210, and Benitez will throw four spring training innings before his elbow elopes with Robb Nen's shoulder. That's true of anyone, though. Well, more so from a 47-year old shortstop, but you get the idea. All things being equal, the Giants bullpen is in better shape next year.

This is yet another case of "'tain't my money". As long as the Giants don't stop spending for 2005, it is irrelevant what Benitez makes. The fortunes of the Giants for the 2007 season are more than a little bleak, but they shouldn't be the main concern while Barry Bonds is still playing. Why worry about chlorofluorocarbons screwing up the environment in the future, when you can spray cheese from an aerosol can now. From a can, damnit!

The definites in the Giants pen:

Benitez
Brower
Eyre
Herges

The possibles:

Aardsma
Merkin
Franklin
Walker
Foppert

This isn't an exhaustive list. There is always some random character who sneaks his way into any bullpen, like Tyler Walker did last year. One day you wake up, it's May, and Brian Mallette is coming in to the eighth inning of a tie game against the Dodgers. Still, the above list still looks a bit thin. A lot depends on the progress of Aardsma, and it would be nice if Foppert could regain some arm strength in the bullpen while also being effective.

With the idea that closers are eminently replaceable comes the belief it is easy and desirable to furbish a bullpen using castaways. Give me Josue Matos, Billy Sylvester, and Joey Dawley, one might say, and you'll have an average bullpen at minimum salary. You just might. You could also have a meltdown, and, more importantly, one which isn't easily explained to thousands of season ticket-holders. Benitez is a huge gain in the public relations department, as well as a good pitcher.

Sabean is a pro at nabbing these bullpen raffle tickets on his own. He tried last year with Dave Veres, Tyler Walker, and Mike Crudale. The year before that, he picked up Matt Herges and gave Joe Nathan a shot. In 2002, it was Scott Eyre. Previously, it was Felix Rodriguez, Rich Rodriguez, John Johnstone, and Alan Embree. He was less successful with Kevin Walker, Manny Aybar, and Troy Brohawn, but he has never shied from the idea of freely available bullpen help. He'll keep it up through this offseason, trying to stock in Fresno little Q-Tips of antiseptic in the event of a bear attack.

However, the Giants needed something more definite. Sabean needed an anti-Herges. Herges is a nice guy, and I'm one of the few people who would actually applaud Sabean for trying him at closer, but he was a disaster. He was "Judge Dredd" as the in-flight movie on the Hindenburg, and that's being charitable. At this point, it also makes little sense to lament the dear, departed Joe Nathan. There is a subset of fans devoted to reversing the flow of time, just to negate that deal. Right now, they're working on a theory that the super-secret magic time machine fuel is distilled and refined using the power of whining. Godspeed, you brave folks. And, if it works, can y'all drop a piano on Scott Speizio's elbow around September of 2002?

Last year, I wrote, "I have no idea if Shigetoshi Hasegawa will be a better reliever than Dan Miceli in 2004". The idea was to just pull two relievers out of the air to make a point, but it could have not worked out better. Hasegawa was coming off a year in which he was spectacular. Miceli was coming off a year in which he played for four different teams. Yet, Miceli was a fine reliever in 2004. Hasegawa was almost as bad as Herges last year. It wouldn't be baseball if "ya never know" didn't come in to play, but with relievers it becomes, "ya never ever ever ever know. Stop thinking you do. You're wrong. Stop it."

There are only a handful of relievers who generally don't vacilitate between effective and ghastly; rather, they find a happy place between great and solid. For an average of $7M a year, the Giants had better hope Benitez is more on that fluffy great side, but in reality what they're paying the premium for is consistency. It is a drastic overpayment, no question. But Benitez makes the 2005 Giants a better team, and until the roster tinkering is complete, that's all we can ask for. Except for maybe another power hitter. Or a second starter. Maybe a setup man. Lower beer prices. Cooler mascot, maybe?

Heart of a Champion

2004-11-15T02:03:00.000-08:00

Early Contender: If It Wasn't For My Horse Award, Free Agent Division

Twelve million dollars. Daaaamn. That's a lot of clams to throw in the direction of a 37-year old guy. Boy. Omar Vizquel was traded last year to the Seattle Mariners, but the trade was voided by Vizquel's inability to pass a post-surgery physical. The Giants will be paying $4M+ to a 40-year old shortstop, three years after he failed a post-surgery physical. Hopefully, this time he'll study.

If there is an imposing outfielder signed or traded for -- Beltran, Drew, or Ordonez are the only three free agents who would qualify -- this signing could benefit the Giants in the short term. Vizquel plays a good defensive short, and he could hit .290 with a fair amount of walks and speed in 2005. If the Giants improve the middle of the order, Vizquel can contribute next year. It's possible.

It's not my money. I mean, in a way it is. I'm a sucker for anything with a Giants logo, and the money from that $60 Giants harmonica keychain surely went straight to the team's pockets. That's not the point. In the grand scheme of things, I don't care if the Giants have a $6M payroll or a $600M payroll. They just need to win. If Omar Vizquel is making too much money in 2007, it really doesn't strike a chord of injustice in the pit of my soul. Good for him. If he doesn't take it, someone else will.

But, and this is a Russ Ortiz-sized but, vastly overpaying Vizquel can not affect anything else. There can't be a, gee, we would've loved to signed Actually Decent Player X, but, well, this Omar thing broke us. This is known in legal circles as The Edgardo Defense, and it can't happen with this deal. If signing ancient players in questionable health for millions of dollars is going to tie the team up, perhaps they shouldn't do it. Just a thought.

Brian Sabean was quoted as saying, "I'm worried about next year. The year after that and the year after that will take care of itself." In a way, that is how we all feel. If the Giants make the playoffs, few people are going to turn to their friends during the NLDS and say, yeah, but what about 2007? The length of the contract is an abomination, and the money is way too much. If the Giants can find another hitter to fill out the lineup, however, they'll be in better shape than they were to start last season.

Durham
Vizquel
Bonds
Real Hitter
Alfonzo/Feliz
Snow/Feliz
Pierzynski
Tucker/Grissom/Mohr

It isn't pretty, but it would be better than people would give it credit for. A problem with this is Beltran is not going to be a Giant. Henry Schulman, still the best beat writer around, writes the Giants are interested in Ordonez and Drew. Good. In the same stroke of the pen, he says the team is also interested in Danny Bautista, Steve Finley, Richard Hidalgo, and Jermaine Dye. Less good.

There aren't that many outcomes with this deal. Choose Your Own Adventure-style:

The team's budget is not affected by the signing, and Vizquel is injured or not productive. (Turn to page 41)

The team's budget is not affected by the signing, and Vizquel is healthy and productive. (Turn to page 45)

The team's budget is drastically affected by the signing, and Vizquel is healthy and productive. (Turn to page 62)

The team's budget is drastically affected by the signing, and Vizquel is injured or not productive. (Turn to page 68)

Page 41
Vizquel spent most of the year on the disabled list. When he wasn't injured, he hit .201. Deivi Cruz started a majority of the games. This didn't make a whole heck of a lot of difference.

THE END

Page 45
When Vizquel left the room, Sabean lifted a cushion of his couch. He pulled out a shiny quarter. Or, perhaps, several million dollars.

"I believe I will give Magglio a call after all," Sabean said. As he picked up the phone, he silently planned what he was going to wear during the ticker-tape parade down Market Street.

THE END

Page 62
As Vizquel left the room to rub gold dubloons all over his body, Sabean grimaced.

"Omar will be a good addition, but now I can't afford to get an expensive outfielder or reliever," Sabean said. He then signed a couple of hobos hanging out in a public bathroom. The hobos were drinking expired Listerine they found in a dumpster. Sabean then signed Danny Bautista. Several stock market analysts moved Market Street Confetti, Inc. from "hold" to "sell".

THE END

Page 68

The toilet was an old model, but it had no problem disposing of what Sabean was throwing in it.

"Take that, money," Sabean cackled. "Burn in hell."

THE END

Perhaps Sabean's first wife cheated on him with an anthropomorphic stack of money, and this is why he hates it so. Vizquel's contract only calls for $2.75M next year, which still leaves $7M to $15M in some mock budgets for 2005. Ye ship is not quite ready to be abandoned, as the team can still cobble a good team together for next year. There will be plenty of time to worry about the back end of this deal, but worrying about the short-term should wait until the roster is complete.

2) Deivi Cruz is not the same player as Vizquel. There is an argument to be considered that Cruz is likely to have a better offensive season than Vizquel. Their respective ages, for one thing. But a cursory look at both players' OPS isn't going to tell the story. Vizquel has a longer history of maintaining his average-dependent productivity than does Cruz. Vizquel is faster, and a fairly successful basestealer.

And there is the defense. Cruz has the range of Chris Speier -- today, that is -- and his arm is only average. A couple of defensive statistics seem to think Cruz is as good as Vizquel. Defensive stats are a wild, untamed Manifest Destiny for the statistical world. Win Shares disagrees with UZR, which disagrees with Adjusted Runs Prevented.

I have seen the stats, but not a whole lot of Vizquel. With this in mind, it would be inappropriate to make an uninformed endorsement of one shortstop's defense over another. It can't be done with my limited knowledge. The only thing I can write with any degree of certainty is that Omar Vizquel is a much, much, much, much, much better defender than Deivi Cruz. He is now, and he will be in ten years. If Vizquel shows up to camp in Lil' Brudder condition, he'll still be better than Cruz.

There was a moment when it was obvious the emperor, played by defensive statistics, not only had no clothes, but was clearly waving its wang in my face. It was upon a quick glance at the range factors of Mo Vaughn and J.T. Snow. According to range factor, which some people still take seriously, Vaughn has been better in the field than Snow over their careers. The only way to comprehend that last sentence without rupturing the fabric of space and time is to pretend "range factor" is a statistic used only by appliance companies to measure something to do with eating.

An ignorant dismissal of defensive statistics doesn't make the contract better, but it isn't insane to hope for Vizquel to be a good defender. Ignoring money, my roulette chip would go on Vizquel for the next season if it were a choice between him and Cruz. That doesn't make things right, but those plans to run the station wagon in a sealed garage might be premature.

2004-11-11T22:29:00.000-08:00

The best rumor mill of the offseason, Prosportsdaily.com, has linked to a couple of Pedro Martinez stories which involve the Giants in some way. The only way the Giants sign Martinez:

Martinez's agent: Ned, I've noticed something funny in this contract we just signed.

Ned Coletti: Funny?

Agent: Yeah, there is an asterisk next to the words "$15 Million for three years".

Coletti: Hmm.

Agent: And then, in tiny print, it reads, "Amount may be paid either in U.S. Legal Tender, or in the appreciative hugs and kisses of children in and around San Francisco."

Coletti: Well, I'll be....

Agent: And then, in even finer print, it reads, "Our lawyers have determined each hug and kiss to be worth one million dollars."

Coletti: That's generous. I'd think they'd be priceless.

Agent: Uh....

Coletti: The more important aspect of the contract comes after all those clauses, actually.

Agent: Really?

Coletti: Towards the end. Last page. His signature.

*click*

Agent: Hello? Hello?

This does not qualify for Oscar-caliber drama yet, but wait until the twist:

A phone rings.

Coletti: Yello?

Pedro's Shoulder: Sproing!

Coletti: NOOO! NOOOOOOO!

Pedro would be nice for the short-term thinker, not as attractive for the long-term thinker. For all the talk of the rotation being set, a whole lot is riding on Noah Lowry and Brett Tomko sipping from the same magic canteen as last season. The only real way for the Giants to get Pedro is for him to settle for a serious second father-discount to reunite with Felipe Alou. Just like Vladimir Guerrero did last year, remember?

The rotation has been assigned a low priority for the offseason, which is probably the right thing to do. The Giants made a flurry of moves to retain a lot of the players with options. Down the line:

J.T. Snow

One of the easier decisions to make, it should be worth a couple of million to see if he's for real. If he isn't, he'll be able to come off the bench. Just because your comfortable old sneakers aren't worth anything, doesn't mean you shouldn't keep them. Also, it should be noted these sneakers were ridiculously good last year. Maybe they sprouted limbs and did your laundry for you. You can't expect your old sneakers to do your laundry for you forever, but it's worth a couple of bucks to see if they will. Still, a very good chance they'll just sit in a corner and smell.

Marquis Grissom

He was incredible in April, and then the Grissom we had a right to expect for the rest of the year. His biggest value -- turning into vintage Sammy Sosa against lefties -- remained intact, and he has built up the same reserve in goodwill bucks that Snow did. Still, the only way this move made sense was spelled out in the initial Chronicle article:

However, (the deals) were finalized only after Sabean gained assurances from some of the players, particularly Cruz and Grissom, that they would be satisfied to return in subordinate roles if the Giants sign or trade for the long-term solutions they seek at shortstop and center field.

As an insurance policy, Grissom is less than exciting. As a spot-starter who can handle centerfield and club lefties, he's a huge asset.

Deivi Cruz

As an insurance policy, Cruz is less than exciting. As a spot-starting shortstop who can handle second and handle the bat a little, he's...wait a sec. If there is no upgrade to short or center, the Grissom and Cruz moves are boring failures.

Brett Tomko

Tomko was as big of a surprise as Snow, and maybe he did benefit from his stretch-run against the Badnariks of the league. Still, he's worth the price to see if he's for real. When he's on, the dude looks real. Mid-90s fastball, 12-to-6 curve, and enough location to keep the hitters worried. When he's off, it's uglier than Tori Spelling after going ten rounds with...no, just Tori Spelling will do. He was an easier decision than Snow, in that there wasn't a Pedro Feliz lurking in his shadows.

A lot of questions were answered, but bigger ones remain. Grissom, Michael Tucker, and Dustan Mohr are all capable of playing centerfield, so the Giants aren't married to the idea of signing a centerfielder. However, Sabean has made a specific point about building around the position. The outfield contenders, after eliminating the sub-Mohr options:

Magglio Ordonez

He is more than an outfielder to some. He is the embodiment of that which has eluded the Giants for too long. The big bat behind Barry Bonds. The ol' five-bee. Scores of men have lost their lives searching for this creature, hoping for just a glimpse. Maybe a shadowy picture for future generations to debate. "It's a piece of driftwood floating in some godforsaken loch", some cry. "It's a legitimate protection-providing power threat," others retort.

Magglio would certainly be a good pickup. He doesn't fit into the Giants budget of nothing, but he'd be a good short-term pickup. He lost a good portion of this past year to injury, and is now 30. No general manager is looking forward to a 35-year Magglio, limping out his $15M finale. Not because that's fated to happen, but because it would be incredibly devastating if it did. Few teams can afford to brush off a Giambi-sized implosion.

Sabean is of a similar mind. His hands are bound by the relatively low-key amount due Edgardo Alfonzo. An eight-figure failure would resonate for years. Magglio's a nice thought in theory-land, but it ain't gonna happen. We'll know in 2010 if that's a good or bad thing.

Carlos Beltran

If Sabean is serious about building his post-Bonds team from the middle out -- meaning concentrating on centerfield, shortstop, and catcher as cornerstones -- Beltran is certainly leaning out the window of his speeding limo, pants down, hanging a full moon which lacks any notion of subtlety. He's not going to be a Giant. We all know this.

Even though he is everything any team could ever want in center, he is going to command a ridiculous amount of money. He hits, he runs, he fields, he switch-hits, and he's 27. Here is the post-Bonds cornerstone, folks. Beltran has more tools than the audience at a Puddle of Mudd show, and, by gum, he knows how to use them. He's likely to be another reason to hate the Yankees.

Steve Finley

"Steve Finley will never help the Giants in any capacity. Ever." - From Isaac Newton's, Laws of Motion: The Outtakes

Just how he would cripple the Giants is the question. Being on the team, he obviously wouldn't be able to hit .692 against them, as he has for his career. No, he'll have to be clever. The smart money is on a horrific outfield collision with Bonds, injuring both for the year. The scientific part of you should want to see what happens. The decent part of you whimpers at the thought.

He'll be a Giant, just a guess, and this will be the year he stops being any variety of good. He'll hit .230, lose his power in Pac Bell, and there will be scores of unsolved cases of babies stolen around the Bay Area. Satanic ritual is a good guess, but certainly not an educated one. Maybe he just likes to eat them.

J.D. Drew

Here he is, the sanctioned correct choice. He's injury-prone, sure. Really, really injury-prone. Really, really, really injury-prone. But injuries aren't a problem, so long as they don't affect a player's playing time or productivity. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Drew is in his prime, and his injury history is going to scare plenty of teams away. It would not be a bad idea to give him a huge contract, provided it was incentive-based. If Drew gets 500 at-bats, he'll likely be worth $8M. Less at-bats, less money. Don't tie the contract to stupid incentives, like RBI, because that'll scare Drew off. Just at-bats. That would place the risk of declining production in the Giants court, and the risk of injury in Drew's.

Juan Gonzalez, Jermaine Dye, and Richard Hidalgo

An interesting trio, to be sure. If Grissom could rise from the ashes, these three certainly could. Gonzalez wears out his welcome everywhere he goes. Will he get a contract close to the 8-year, $140 million deal offered by the Tigers in 2000? Only time will tell. Bad idea for anything more than one year, $3M. Great idea for anything less.

Having Dye and Tucker on the same team might fulfill some Taoist prophecy, but Dye isn't likely to be the answer any more than Tucker was. Hidalgo is almost identical to Dye in his balance of upside/downside. In a perfect world, the Giants sign both for less than $1M, and hope one works out. If the Giants sign either, it will be a surprise. Depending on the contract, either would be an high-risk, high-reward move.

Moises Alou

As Bonds' caddy for 150 at-bats, he's welcome on the team. On a Bonds-less team, he'd be worth trying to squeeze out another productive year in left. He is no longer a good defender. Cubs fans froth at the mouth describing his baserunning.

As a starting right-fielder, he's a story told around a campfire with a flashlight and bad acid; if Chernobyl had anything to do with nepotism, this would be its legacy. In both the short- and long-term, Dustan Mohr would be a much better gamble to take.

Jeromy Burnitz

Why is this guy being taken seriously? Because he hit .283 in Coors Field? He was great in Coors, but on the road he was Michael Tucker. We have one of those, thank you.

So there is the option to overspend for the better part of the decade, at least. After that, there is the option to cross your fingers and hope to salvage a career on the cheap. And then there is sweet, sweet Drew. Perhaps we should save the appreciative hugs and kisses for him.

Gently though, children. Gently.

Quick note: A new Giants-centric blog is up and running here. It seems to be on the Fogball side of the statistical velvet rope, at least at first glance. Check it out.

2004-10-28T01:30:00.000-07:00

As the Boston fans turn down the lights, spin some Luther Vandross, and prepare to make out with the 2004 Red Sox for the next century or so, it's time to look at the offseason for the Giants. The Red Sox did indeed prove curses and perpetually doomed teams are silly, silly concepts. Only morons would take that sort of bait. The Red Sox won the World Series by following a two-point blueprint:

1. Have a very good team.
2. Enjoy the same variety of luck every other championship team has enjoyed in the past.

This, of course, does not apply to the Giants. They are cursed and perpetually doomed. Other teams can take heart, though. Luck isn't a dirty word. Every team which has won the World Series has experienced some sort of luck. Tony Womack getting a key ninth-inning hit against Mariano Rivera. Alex Gonzalez booting a key ball in the NLCS, letting the Marlins off the hook. The Angels being allowed to have Francisco Rodriguez on their roster even though he was facing extradition on several counts of racketeering (look it up).

If it were Derek Lowe's desire to kill a nubile virgin in order to use the skull for some sort of ceremonial victory chalice, there isn't a court in New England that would convict him. A month ago he was the Red Sox faithful's Livan Hernandez. A scapegoat's scapegoat. After vanquishing the Yankees in a very losable Game Seven, and winning the Series-clinching game, he's now a Boston demi-god. That was not planned. That was, it could be said, a little lucky. Little things added up, like the rotator cuffs of Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez holding together for 50,000,000 lifetime pitches, when 50,000,002 pitches might have snapped them both like delicious sesame sticks. No shame in it. Congratulations to Boston fans.

If the Giants want to win anything, they should concentrate on building a very good team, and hope the luck part falls into place. As my grandpappy always told me, you can?t spraypaint Marvin Bernard green and call him a leprechaun. Or something. This is the sort of cogent analysis you just couldn't find before blogs came of existence. If the Giants want to win, they need a good team. I'll take my Nobel cash award in small bills, please.

The Giants need a shortstop. They also need an outfielder. They need to figure out if Snow -- also known by his murder mystery party alter-ego, Baron Von Fluke -- will return at first base, or if that is a position of need. The team needs relief help. That?s a lot of work, and, with the exception of trying to dump Edgardo Alfonzo's contract, it isn?t rocket science..

Last year's Waiting for Boof Offseason Special Spectacular Extravaganza was a miserable failure. Something called Raul Ibanez was endorsed, and there was an embarrassing attempt to spin Neifi into something un-negative. Mistakes were made. It?s hard work.

Starting with the shortstops:

Contenders

Deivi Cruz

The incumbent has certainly earned another chance; words which are hard to type. His hitting wasn't incredible, just acceptable. His defense wasn't terrible, just acceptable. He's now an acceptable shortstop. Cruz is on the wrong side of 30, and his latest exploits will overprice him a tad. He isn't, however, the running gag he was when the Giants picked him up like he were a Costanzian eclair on the top of the trash can. There are worse options.

Omar Vizquel

Mad linker Steve Shelby asked where Vizquel was in my brief recap of shortstop free agents last week. Vizquel was just too obvious to be remembered. He's a bad idea which could turn out somewhat good, like a Santiago, mark II. Still, he's a bad idea. He'll be 38, and his hitting is as batting-average dependent as Cruz's, but without the doubles power. If the Giants upgrade the offense elsewhere, Vizquel could do his thing almost unnoticed. If the Giants decide Michael Tucker just had an off year, and the patented Tucker bounce back will put the team over the top, then we would be in trouble.

Edgar Renteria

Renteria is this year's Vladimir Guerrero for the shortstop fetishists out there. He's going to be 29. He's coming off a down year, so his price isn't going to be out of whack. However, there are still teams which are willing to spend good coin on him. If Magowan keeps with his promise to not overspend, or spend, Renteria is a fantasy.

Orlando Cabrera

Never as good as his best season, Cabrera is now a very rich man. Someone will go Al Davis, and vastly overpay for a guy who was very visible in the playoffs. He is a good defender, and would be an upgrade. It isn't my money, the refrain goes, so long as it doesn't Edgardoize the budget in the future, the Giants would be glad to have him.

Nomar Garciaparra.

He's probably sitting in an empty bathtub right now, drinking a beer and staring at the wall. Don't bother looking for him, Mia. He'll be found when he wants to be found.

Garciaparra is a good candidate for a Juan Gonzalez-type contract. High money, short length. If the Giants want to put on a good public relations show, they'll go after Nomar. He's brittle, but he can still hit. Two years, $18M, with performance bonuses. Three years, $24M? Maybe too big of a risk. Bad long-term contracts kill, but brutal short-term failures shouldn't cripple a solid foundation. So the Giants will have to eat dried ramen noodles every once in a while. Suck it up, ownership. Not necessarily for the fragile, mopey genius of Nomar, but for someone.

Cristian Guzman

"I'm someone!", chimes Guzman. Ugh. Hitting a soft .270 on astroturf, all while playing iffy defense, adds up to a good bench player. He's young enough to improve, and certainly has some athleticism, but he is not a player on which to break the bank. Were he to start for the Giants, it would be fun to watch him test out Triples Alley, and to hope for his peak to be a robust and sustained one. The mini-glut on the market for shortstops should hurt a guy like Guzman more than a Renteria. Two years, four million? Worth a shot, ALATOIFAOP^*.

Cody Ransom

The Offending Defensive Replacement is long for the waiver wire, not a starting role. He'll resurface as one of those pesky bench players on some playoff team, like Miguel Cairo.

Rich Aurilia

Bring him back as a role player/mascot, just for kicks. Here's a contract for just above the major league minimum, now hit the cages. And get your wife started on a new recipe for that charity cookbook.

Royce Clayton

And this idea is officially out of steam.

It's now confession time. I am one of the shortstop fetishists described above. I've been eyeing Renteria for two years, now. If the Giants budget is $80M, they should go to $90M to get Renteria. Call it blind faith in a player who had a poor year, but he's a top offensive performer at a position where they aren't common. At least, he should be. Er, could be. He could be an expensive mistake. He could be a bargain. My money's on bargain, if the Cardinals will let him go.

Next week: The Center and Rightfield Mohrass

^{*"As long as the offense is fixed at other positions." Even then, that is some funky defense.}

2004-10-21T01:13:00.000-07:00

1) Alliances splinter. It's an inevitable occurrence. Scores of beer drinkers congregate together, and discover they all are madly in love with the exact same beer. Instead of banding together as some super-clan to kick some serious Keystone ass, they dissolve into petty arguments about why they like the beer in the first place. Even though one faction was clearly wrong, as Miller Lite has always tasted like malted urine, there just wasn't enough room for both the Tastes Greaters and the Less Fillingses.

The happy rainbow coalition of Giants fans are slowly disintegrating into two distinct groups: those who demand a reliever, and those who demand a real hitter behind Barry Bonds. Sure, there might be some wayward Naderish faction stumbling around, hoping the Giants give a six-year deal to Freddy Garcia, but the majority of the base is leaning one particular way. The obvious answer is to slather two-way freakshow Brooks Kieshnick with "the Clear", load his coffee full of greenies, sit back, and watch him just dominate the hitters and pitchers of the league. That might be a touch unlikely, however, so it looks like the Giants will have to choose between the idea of reliever and hitter.

Sabean chooses more good relievers than questionable relievers. He chooses questionable hitters more than good hitters.. That should make the choice a little easier. Sabean is somewhat progressive, realizing bullpens full of castoffs can be just as effective as the trillion dollar bullpens. He'll pay for the premium closer (Nen) and solid bet (Felix Rodriguez), but, Jason Christiansen aside, rarely hurts himself with the awful contracts for middle relief.

There might be a tendency to lean toward the idea of a reliever-as-free-agent-lightning-strike. Rumor has it the Giants are a little cheap, and this changes things. There is no reason to give a huge contract to Dan Miceli in the hopes he might have a Micelian season, especially if it reduces any chance of landing an impact hitter. David Aardsma or Merkin Valdez are as good a bet to have good seasons as a fastball/slider guy in his late 30s. If the merely above-average are taken from the free agent equation, it leaves:

Troy Percival
Armando Benitez

Which one of those pitchers should Sabean give a multi-million dollar, multi-year contract to? Percival is going to be 36, and will have to be paid gobs of money to leave the only major league team he has ever known. And that's if the Angels refuse to overpay to keep him, which doesn't seem likely.

Benitez might be able to pitch, but every team is going to be wary of his reputation. Balloon animals, piling out of a VW Bug, immortalized in Emmett Kelly prints, and all that. A reliever isn't necessarily old at the age of 31, so a three-year contract isn't insane. He is likely the only impact reliever, though, and his price will be inflated. If that's the only slot machine in town, it's worth thinking about hanging on to the quarter.

The Giants were second in runs scored for the National League this past season. Amazing. Bonds was beyond great, yes, but that doesn't explain everything. In 2001, the Giants had a crazy season from Bonds. They also had Rich Aurilia and Jeff Kent, who were comfortably above any non-Bonds hitter trotted out in 2004. They weren't second in runs scored; they were fifth. The difference was in the lack of utterly useless hitters. In 2001, Benito Santiago was most utterly useless, hitting .262/.295/.369. Pedro Feliz was not yet a useful wild hacker, he was just bad, hitting .227/.264/.373. Eric Davis contributed 156 at-bats of nothing. Edwards Guzman hit like a pair of 50-year old attorneys general, and was one of many terrible bench players. Not unproductive, but terrible.

In 2004, the Giants were lucky not to have many of these seasons. Neifi Perez probably cost the Giants the division. Jeffrey Hammonds wasn't very impressive in 95 at-bats. Every non-Neifi hitter over 100 at-bats was not terrible. This season from Bonds was unfathomable, but that last point was the key to the Giant success. It doesn't make for a winning slogan -- The Giants: Almost No Terrible Hitters! -- but it was the biggest reason for 91 wins.

If the idea is to get another hitter, it is worth finding out which Giant is likely to be worse than they were in 2004. Deivi Cruz is an obvious choice. This Snow character just might not pull another Wade Boggs-type season from his nether regions. Marquis Grissom shouldn't be as good and, unless he comes cheap after the team declines his option, won't be a Giant. Bonds is always going to be due for a decline or injury. Edgardo Alfonzo is 52, and might not come close to .290 again.

Forget first base. Snow has a $2M option, and even though he isn't going to repeat his year, it's an inexpensive enough gamble to take. If he has 75% of the year he had in 2004, he's a bargain. It was always a pipe dream to see Carlos Delgado in a Giants uniform, what with his wacky moveon.org politics perfect for the Bay Area, but he will still command too much for the Giants.

Centerfield is an interesting case. Dustan Mohr, who was questionable for the 2005 season after his knee literally caught fire in a well-publicized incident, could start in center. He's got the range to be a centerfielder, even if he can be a bit goofy at times. His new, slavish devotion to the art of getting on base will be welcome in the two hole on a regular basis. Is it a fluke? What the hell, throw him out there. He's likeable, damnit. Hustles, too. Got spunk. Good kid. Screw him if Carlos Beltran is an option, but he's a gritty player. Plays the game right. Fan favorite. It's hard work.

No one is going to take Alfonzo off the Giants hands. If the Giants are going to pay $3M for another team to take him, they might as well keep him. The juggling of the Alfonzo/Snow/Feliz Cerberus was one of Felipe Alou's finer points last year. Getting rid of Alfonzo just to do so would be a waste. If someone takes him and his full salary on, then we wish you well Edgardo, but it's not going to go down like that. He'll be a Giant in 2005.

This leaves the two spots due for an obvious upgrade as rightfield and shortstop. Michael Tucker is signed for another year. He's a fine bench player. If the opposition throws a right-handed reliever on the mound for the 7th inning, and said reliever does not possess a changeup, Tucker would be the first choice off the bench. That might sound snarky, but it is meant as a genuine sentiment. He'll be overpaid, but still useful.

Shortstop. Sweet shortstop. Where a team can gain a clear advantage over other teams just by having someone offensively competent. Deivi Cruz might be as good as he was, but he could as easily be Neifi sans defense. So it goes for the batting average dependent hitter.

If the Giants maintain the status quo for either center/rightfield or shortstop, they would be best served to upgrade one of the other iffy positions. The options:

RF
Magglio Ordonez
Jermaine Dye
J.D. Drew
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Steve Finley
Richard Hidalgo

SS

Edgar Renteria
Nomaaaaaah
Jose Valentin
Cristian Guzman

The particulars of all the choices will be fleshed out next week, but it is worth a reminder as to the firemen dynamos available:

Troy Percival
Armando Benitez

Put those kazoos down, boys. We haven't won the Series yet.

In this black or white world, it seems like if the Giants are going to help themselves through the free agent market, they would be better served doing so with a hitter. Still, the argument rages on. Tastes great, less filling. Right wing, left wing. "Self Destruction" fans, "We're All in the Same Gang" fans. Money on a reliever, money on a power hitter.

Do the Giants need another power hitter, or do they need to shore up their pitching? Yes.

2) Growing up, it was always astonishing no team had ever rallied back from a 3-0 postseason deficit. Ever. You would never see as a 30-point headline:

Good team beats other good team four straight!

It would be an upset, but nothing that would have proven impossible. It just never happened. But now it has, and it was impressive. It was extra-inning wins, and unlikely heroes. Injured stars, grinding their teeth through tough innings. It was good baseball.

When the Red Sox won the fourth game of the series, it was almost automatic. They would go to the seventh game of the series, and then blow it. Giants fans know these things; it can't be done easily. The Sox rallied for Game Five. Game Six was another classic. This set up the crushing, soul-melting denouement. My prediction on how it would end went like this:

Joe Buck: Bottom of the ninth: Red Sox 3, Yankees 2. Runner on first This is what everyone wanted. Keith Foulke is on the mound, and he'll face Derek Jeter.

Tim McCarver: Blah blah hyuk blah snarf. And I knew that was going to happen. Duh.

Joe Buck: Jeter swings at the first pitch and pops it up! Playable for Cabrera, who...and it hits a pigeon! The ball goes towards the corner! Manny can't dig it out! And Jeter, a baserunner so good, so adept, it was if he were an agent of God, placed into our hands by some divine stroke of mercy, to rouse the faith of the non-believers and solidfy those who never had doubt, scores! The Yankees win the pennant!

If you're a Red Sox fan, you know. If you're a Giants fan, you know. There is always something. A tired Dustin Hermanson. A tired Felix Rodriguez. A bullpen mound in the way of Dante Powell's throw. Something. Red Sox fans are well versed in something. And that's why it was so heartening to see them win tonight. Not because there should be any sympathy for the long suffering Sox fan. Anyone within three yards of a drunk Red Sox fan for this year's interleague series against the Giants couldn't care less about the long suffering fans. Listening to the jerseyed goof two rows in front yelp after every...single...positive...turn...of...events for the Red Sox was like a Croatian have to endure heckling from a Hungarian during the World Cup. Look, we're both never going to win this thing, okay? Tone it the hell down. All sympathy for the poor, poor fans went out the window after that series, for a lot of people, I'm sure.

Now there's a chance for them. And, for no specific reason, it follows there is a chance for the Giants to do something similar in the next decade or so. The Red Sox vanquished that which could not be vanquished. They were the ones with all of the breaks. They pantsed tradition and history, and got the surrounding schoolgirls to point and giggle.

If they could, why not the....

3) Comment starter of the week:

Series predictions? By the time most of you stumble on this site, we'll know who the Red Sox will face. Good thing the All-Star Game gave a wild-card team home field advantage over the best record in baseball. That still makes sense. I'll go with Cardinals in six, unless the Astros win the NLCS. Then it'll be the Sox in five.

2004-10-03T23:14:00.001-07:00

They just couldn’t die in May. They couldn’t fall below .500 by the July trading deadline and trade the free-agents-to-be. They couldn’t have allowed all of us to ruminate about the 2005 roster in August, prompting daily Jesse Foppert updates. They had to take it to the last week of the season. They had to let Steve Finley and the Dodgers drive the stake.

Giants fan grief, in the classic five stages:

I. Denial

There’s no way a bullpen could be that bad. Defensive replacements don’t get enough playing time to personally cost a team two full games in the standings. There is no way a team could blow two multi-run leads in two different ninth innings, to two different direct competitors in the last week of the season. It didn’t happen.

II. Bargaining

“Honey, I’ll do the dishes for a month if you’ll let me travel to Los Angeles to hit Steve Finley in the face with a croquet mallet.”
“No.”
“In the knee?”
“No.”

III. Anger

Ah, this one comes naturally. Cody Ransom. Wayne Franklin. Dustin Hermanson. Brian Sabean. Matt Herges. A.J. Pierzynski -- Polish for “Looks Much, Much Worse in Retrospect” -- you can all do the Anatomically Impossible Shuffle. The Rockies are scores of words of their own.

IV. Despair

This team is never going to win. They have had the best player in baseball history for the past four seasons, making the playoffs twice. They were seven outs away from a World Series championship, holding a five-run lead. It’s time to invite the Boston and Chicago teams over for a pity party. Put a pot of coffee on, because the White Sox are going to bore us with some story about how their dad never taught them how to shave, or something.

V. Acceptance.

This team wasn’t that good. It wouldn’t have been any easier to watch them get pummeled in the playoffs. They would have been eliminated by the Marlins in five, regardless if the Marlins made the playoffs or not.

Stage four is a popular one right now. The role of the Giants fan is of the drunken hooligan in the pub, just ready to start throwing punches if someone bumps into them. Cody Ransom? “Yyyyou. You think yer ssso ssspecial. Oooh, a deffensive repllacement! Yer just a girrrrrl Kodi. Just a girl, you s...shut up, I know what I’m doing, shut up all of you!” Everyone deserves blame for the mess on the rug, though, so them knuckles is going to get bloody. On a team with fifty different flaws, fixing one of them might have gained a game in the standings. A game in the standings might have meant the playoffs.

Terrible. Words fail. Gaaargh.

2) If there is one thing I would like to be remembered for, it is the introduction of a new phrase: Counting on the rockies.

“I told Mary to bring the salad for the party.”
“Uh oh. So we’re not going to have a salad?”
“Yeah, I guess I was kind of counting on the rockies.”

Plenty of phrases we use everyday came from ancient and inscrutable origins, such as “the real McCoy”. It is time to add “counting on the rockies” to the lexicon. If anyone asks where it came from, act surprised they’ve never heard it before. If you’re pressed, say it’s from Shakespeare. If they know Shakespeare, say it’s from a Thoreau poem. If they can quote both Shakespeare and Thoreau verbatim, don’t worry, people stopped listening to the nerd years ago. The secret is safe.

The official definition:

Counting on the rockies - Hoping someone or something will perform a task which benefits you, even though this someone or something is very, very, very unlikely to do so.

The Rockies organization is a joke. No, that’s not true, because people like jokes. The Rockies are bad, stale jokes from a soon-to-be-cancelled sitcom. The Rockies are the jokes forwarded to your e-mail from workmates you don’t like. The Rockies are the kind of jokes which surface after a horrible national tragedy under the guise of a demented method of coping.

Everything this team has done in their existence has screwed the Giants. They couldn’t win a single game against the 1993 Braves, and the Giants lost the division by a single game. They lost 13 of 20 to the Diamondbacks in 2001, screwing the Giants. They developed Neifi Perez. In a secret bunker lab beneath a mountain, most likely. Perez hit a homerun against the Giants to prevent them from winning the wild-card in 1998. They couldn’t beat the Astros, and they couldn’t beat the Dodgers. They need no biscuit to roll over and drool on themselves, begging you to itch their bellies. They just do it.

The Rockies are not a baseball team. Every other team in the majors plays by one set of rules, but the Rockies are playing with 50-yard fields, and rebound nets behind the goalposts. The Rockies are a stain on the underwear of baseball. The Twins were being considered for contraction, and they’ve won three division titles since. The Rockies haven’t done anything, ever, to help the game of baseball in any capacity. They are the worst idea in the history of professional sports.

The Giants played their own way out of the playoffs, but the Rockies still suck. Worst idea in the history of professional sports. For good measure, it should also be brought up that John Elway is a tool.

“I was hoping the Giants wouldn’t break my heart this year.”
“Hmm. You shouldn’t count on the rockies like that.”
“Shut up.”

3) The analogy likening Brett Tomko to the entire Giants team fell apart on the day of reckoning. It seemed as if Tomko’s success in his last start would be inexorably linked to his team’s success. If Tomko wasn’t as good as he had been, then neither were the Giants.

That idea fizzled. Tomko was awesome, and the Giants still lost. Tomko went from water cooler punchline to 2005 Giant in a month. His fastball was suddenly dynamite, and his location was superb. Remove the Stone of Shame, and attach the Stone of Triumph, Brett. In a good rotation, it’s unlikely he’ll ever be more than a fourth starter, but he looks like a $2.5M bargain for next year. If Schmidt’s arm holds up, Lowry’s success wasn’t a fluke, Jerome Williams comes back healthy and improved, and Rueter regains his 1997 form, then the Giants would love to include Tomko in the best rotation in baseball. 2005, baby! Eat your heart out, 1971 Orioles!

In all seriousness, there is some hope there. Pedro’s arm has held together, so why not Schmidt’s? Lowry didn’t look like a fluke, and Williams is just getting started. If Rueter is traded, which would be a touch sad, maybe the Giants could get a starter who averages more than four innings per start, and...crap, I can’t believe this is even crossing my mind right now. Which of the Astros, Cardinals, and Braves are you absolutely sure the Giants couldn’t win a series against? None of the above. The other teams might have the edge, by a good margin even, but the Giants could have fluked into something.

Didn’t Dylan McKay's tragic loss teach you anything, Dustin? Stupid sideburns are bad luck. Pay attention next time.

4) The Dodgers finished above the Giants for the first time since 1996. They did it at home, in front of the fans who hadn’t left yet; the diehard fans. The true priests in the dark church. The scene was easy enough to imagine. Jose Lima probably played his own stupid CD in the clubhouse, and uttered “Lima Time” approximately 672 times. Wilson Alvarez, who is cosmically linked with the Giants in some weird, Altman-esque fashion, slithered over to get another bottle of champagne. Jeff Weaver carved “Slayer” into the bench in front of his locker with a pocketknife, then flipped the collar up on his denim jacket.

No Garvey, no Hershisher, no Piazza, no Karros, no problem. This was easily the most annoying Dodger team in memory. That comment will only make Dodger fans smile, but it had to be written.

It will be an interesting offseason. There is some definite egg on Sabean’s face. The trick, though, is to take that egg and make meringue! Natch! Hee hee heh hehea lkjadlj fGAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAGHHH STUPID GIANTS FUAAARRRRAGH!!!!!!!!!!!!

As a cop is questioning you in the hallway, another leading your significant other away in handcuffs, and still more are packing up the scales and the kilos of cocaine on the dining room table, you maybe think you'll change your life. Your priorities. Things that are important. Burned one too many times and this is it, you think.

Yet, we’ll come back. We always do. For we are idiots.

Three back, one back. Help us Barry.....

2004-09-27T23:52:00.000-07:00

1) At several points during the season, Giants fans wanted to tie Tomko in a mail sack and toss him into the Bay. Metaphorically, of course. Or perhaps lock him in a dark room, having someone in a Lou Seal costume shoot t-shirts at him from a t-shirt gun while repeatedly screaming, “IF YOU DON’T RETIRE, I AM GOING TO BURN DOWN YOUR HOUSE! DO YOU HEAR ME?” Metaphorically, of course.

Then he became interesting. Then dependable. Then he was out-aceing Jason Schmidt, and was striking people out at an acceptable rate. Sure, they were Brewers and Diamondbacks, but he was still punching them out. It was becoming safe to trust him. Against the Dodgers this past weekend, however, he couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. This one start does not undo all the good he has done down the stretch. You just wish he could have added just one more exceptional start to his string.

In a general sense, he is the perfect comparison for the whole Giants team. You wanted to leave them on a doorstep, ring the doorbell and run. Then they inched closer, and you thought, “Well, it’ll be fun while it lasts.” Then they were safe to trust. Now they are close to breaking our heart, while still having a chance at the near-impossible. Stupid team.

The Giants were found on Monday hoping Shawn Estes would bail them out. So goes the 2004 season. The Rockies suck, the Rockies suck, thuuuuuuuuh Rockies suck. And the Giants are three back in the division. In another surprising development, Aaron Harang was unable to stop the Cubs. And the Giants are one back in the wild-card race. There’s still a chance. Stupid team.

There are a lot of flaws with this incarnation of the Giants. Obviously. In a critical three-game series against the team directly ahead of them in the standings, the Giants wheeled out Kirk Rueter, Brad Hennessey, and Tomko. Michael Tucker is still starting. Tucker was as good an idea as buying tickets to the Blue Oyster Cult, Joan Jett, and Creedence Clearwater Revisited Rock Jam. Tucker sporting an on-base percentage of .380 around the break was like a hearty rendition of “Burnin’ for You”. Man, these cats still got it, you think. Then the second hour passes. And the third. Suddenly, it’s 2005, and Tom Fogarty is mangling a version of “Chooglin’”, doing it only for the coin a Grand Junction Rock Jam can bring. No one benefits from that house of horrors.

One more year of Michael Tucker, everybody. Let’s hear it.

For all these flaws, though, the most obvious reason the Giants are struggling to make the playoffs is the bullpen. There isn’t time to check the archives, but this just might be the worst bullpen in the history of organized baseball. The best reliever in the bunch was traded for a bench player, who then sucked. Jason Christiansen and Scott Eyre made Giants fans yearn for the halcyon days of Rich Rodriguez. The performance turned in by Matt Herges was the lowest point in the history of human civilization. Okay, the bullpen wasn’t that bad, but, brother, it wasn’t good.

It’s hard to blame Brian Sabean for this mess, though. He assembled a group of arms who had a decent history of alternating between good and slightly below-average. There wasn’t much net upside, true, but there were few guaranteed dogs. Robb Nen’s nine million wasn’t coming back, Tim Worrell was a sucker’s bet, and the free agents weren’t interesting. He didn’t do a terrible job, considering the circumstances.

The difference in the Giants season is that they didn’t luck into a bullpen savior. Last year, Joe Nathan clawed his way out of the abyss to become a bullpen savior. Giovanni Carrera was released by the Cubs, and signed by the Dodgers to a minor-league deal. He became a bullpen savior. Yancy Branzypants, or whatever, was the Dodger equivalent of Merkin Valdez. One wasn’t ready to be a dominant major league reliever, the other was. A current list of stellar relievers in the 2004 season would include names like Ayala, Ryan, and Salomon F. Torres. The Giants were unable to luck into any of these types of performances.

This isn’t to suggest the Giants were unlucky. Man, no. Deivi Cruz fell into their laps as the great antidote to Neifi, and Noah Lowry was ten times better than we had a right to expect. It’s just that Aardsma was a year or two away. There was no Carrera or Mahay. A bunch of decent arms turned out to be less-than-decent, and that’s the overriding reason why the Giants aren’t leading the division right now. It happens, and this time the bullpen ended up a worse disaster than a Kevin Costner-directed remake of Lawrence of Arabia, starring Costner as Sir Lawrence. Oh, and Sir Lawrence has a Boston accent for some reason.

The knee-jerk reaction is to throw money at the problem, and that’s not going to fix anything with this batch of free agents. With the Giants only a game down in their quest for the playoffs, there is still a chance for Jim Brower to rattle off a 30-inning stretch of scoreless baseball through the playoffs, allowing the Bay Area to watch a parade down Market Street.

Stop snickering. It could happ...stop snickering, damnit.

2) It takes an education to become a mad scientist. Four-year degrees are likely the minimum for your garden variety mad scientist, with most going on to earn a doctorate like Dr. Octopus and Dr. Frankenstein. As such, it is easy to imagine fledgling mad scientists sitting around a dorm room, getting incredibly high. This is the only scenario in which one could be excused for even entertaining the thought of batting A.J. Pierzynski directly behind Barry Bonds.

Felipe Alou, I have known stoned, post-adolescent mad scientists. I have worked with stoned, post-adolescent mad scientists. And you, sir, are no stoned, post-adolescent mad scientist.

Bonds is the greatest on-base machine in the history of the game. Of all the scores of seasons, and all the thousands of players to cycle through Major League Baseball, the leftfielder of the 2004 San Francisco Giants is the absolute best player in history at reaching base. He is standing on first base after about half of his at-bats. A.J. Pierzynski is a slow catcher who doesn’t strike out, and refuses to take a walk. If you were to genetically concoct a Serpentor-like being to rise as a legendary double play behemoth, Pierzynski is going to be the result. Person on first. Person who likes to wipe out the runner on first with a weak grounder to second. What would happen if...., is how the mad scientist gets the thought process started.

This peanut butter-and-pickled herring sandwich probably isn’t the difference in the division, or even the wild card. But it couldn’t have helped, and is unspeakably stupid. The only problem with this particular blame game is there is absolutely nothing close to a traditional five-hitter on the roster. If I were in charge this team might have Pat Hentgen and Raul Mondesi, so take everything written with a tub of salt. However, were I in charge, Dustan Mohr would have taken at-bats from both Tucker and Marquis Grissom, and hit behind Bonds. He has a modicum of power, doesn’t make many outs, and has the speed to beat out a couple of wayward grounders every once in a while. Marquis Grissom did make a lot of outs, but he also struck out a lot, and had some speed. He wasn’t the worst of all options.

Anyone but Pierzynski. Please.

3) Comment starter(s) of the week: Knowing what you know now: 2-0. Bases loaded. Two outs. Feliz up. Bonds on deck. Are you hoping he’s taking, or that he gets a fastball?

If that starter doesn’t get you going, you could always just hint at how cool you are and tell us all what CD you’ve been into lately.

edit: It has just come to my attention this site is one of the top search results when entering "free Disney porn" into MSN search. I'm tempted to retire. What the heck more is there?

2004-09-17T11:21:00.000-07:00

A tougher work schedule, renewed interest in screenplay writing, and occasional computer problems have conspired against this site. The biggest problem, however, is that when I sit down to write, there is just too much to cover. Snow's stem-cell fueled resurgence? A new closer in Dustin Hermanson, already set to surpass Rollie Fingers on the all-time list of WFHOLA^*? Noah Lowry's surge, then subsequent de-surge, with a recent, slight uptick in surginess? There's too much to cover each time I miss a week, and the blinking cursor just intimidates me.

My hopeful solution is to write shorter bursts, but write them twice a week. Maybe once a week. Maybe thrice. More blurbs, less manifestos. Here's a little snippet, and here's hoping it works.

1) Top three surprises so far:

a. Deivi. There is no official penalty for being released by the Devil Rays. It seems as if there should at least be some community service required, but no. The only penalty is the good chance one of your children might forsake their love for you, which isn’t really a problem as you can always make more.

Released by the Devil Rays? A couple of millennia ago, that would mean you were thrown into the Coliseum with a trident and a shield, forced to fight a lion for the amusement of the emperor. Or, perhaps in some parallel universe, it meant you were automatically sold to some evil robot overlord to work in a robot factory for making robots to rule you and other non-robots in a cruel twist of robot irony. Released by the Devil Rays, remember.

Being a shortstop released by a bad team leaves you with few options. His agent's first play was to look for the team with the worst options at shortstop. Hellllo, Giants. Neifi Perez was busy twisting his handlebar moustache and tying the Giants offense to the railroad tracks when the Giants signed Cruz. It was a low-risk move to sign Cruz, to be sure. He has been this good before -- in 2000 he was a doubles machine who hit .302 -- so it was possible for him to be better than Neifi.

There are two categories of the breakout player: The How Is He Doing It Player, and the Why Did He Ever Suck In The First Place Player. With his quick hands and ability to hit the inside fastball, Deivi is close to the latter. He hasn't been spectacular enough to really consider him a true breakout player, but he's been a very nice surprise. However, his power and patience are minimal enough to make him completely dependent on his batting average if he wants to be a good offensive player.

Batting average is fickle. Don't expect this next year, but have fun while it lasts. Until he signs a two-year deal. Then the fun stops.

b. Dustan Mohr is like something you'd put in a jar with a spider, shaking it up and trying to make them fight. The fella's intense. He also looks just like Julian, which would mean something to you if you knew Julian.

That he is having success isn't the biggest surprise in the world. It's how he's having it. His minor league career suggested if he were to have a breakout season, it might resemble a poor man’s Joe Carter. That is, a heavy-strikeout, above-average power season which looked better because of a fluky high batting average. However, when Pedro Feliz did a little goat dance and burned his copy of Moneyball, Mohr snorted the ashes. He's an on-base machine, taking walks and getting in front of pitches.

The rap on Mohr, fair or not, is that he's a bit of an absent-minded professor out there, occasionally playing the outfield like Ruben Rivera runs the bases. He has made some terrible plays this season, but he has also made some fantastic plays, and seems to have a good amount of range. He'll be the starting something for the Giants next year, to make a bold prediction, and we'll see if his new approach to hitting is a hiccup, or the real thing.

c. J.T. Snow. What the hell. It’s September, and he is still hitting over .400 since the All-Star break. There are career years which are hard to predict, and then there are years like this. J.T.’s wife had already put a non-refundable deposit down for a cruise next August. She was planning to run a counter-information campaign this offseason.

"Tampa? Ick. That turf would hurt your knees. Detroit? I think I heard their manager threatened to eat Lennox Lewis' child. A bunch of crazies over there. I wouldn’t even return their calls..."

So it went, as Snow slowly vanished from the consciousness of baseball, and Mrs. Snow was able to sip poolside Mai-Tais.

Snow has thrown a lot of plans awry with this season. This incredible season. This season that almost, at least in the short-term, makes up for the large contract given to Edgardo Alfonzo’s shadow. Do the Giants pick up his option? Common sense says, ho crap, no. The guy will be 36, and he’s never been this good before. Take away all sentimentality, and strip the previous sentence of most of its context:

"The guy will be 36, and he’s never been this good before."

"This car has never had any of its scheduled maintenance, but it really purrs for a Festiva with 180,000 miles."

"Hmm. I didn’t know Keystone made a merlot. Maybe we should try it."

You run from all of these. It is great to watch Snow right now, and it really does seem like he’s a different hitter. If this team does make the playoffs, it will be directly because of his contributions. Still, run.

2) Comment starter of the week: I’m thinking about ditching the Giants-only format in the offseason to write about baseball as a whole. Part of my current writer’s block, I think, is there are only so many ways to write "Neifi sux!!!1". I’ve always toyed with the idea of a general baseball blog, and in fact had an embarrassing, pre-Boof attempt. What thinketh both of the readers who stuck through my inactivity?

^{*"Wacky Facial Hair over League Average"}

Jockey Full of Bourbon

2004-08-15T22:28:00.000-07:00

Jockey Full of Bourbon

If there were some mandatory law requiring teams to give collective nicknames to their bullpen -- like the “Nasty Boys” of Reds fame -- the winning submission for the Giants would have been Police Academies 2 through 6. As in, if Felipe Alou trudged out to the mound to pick a movie from a DVD library, he’d look to his left and see Police Academies 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Felix Rodriguez was Police Academy 2, in case you were wondering. It had its moments, like the supergluing of Mauser’s hands to his own scalp by Mahoney. Ah, Mahoney. Now the best option of a bad collection is gone.

Ricky Ledee is a good player to have. On a team leaning to the right side, he’s a great bench player. The minor leaguer the Giants received seems interesting, and more than your average throw-in. Were this the offseason, it might qualify as a nice little trade. It frees up salary, picks up a prospect, and puts a worthy player on the bench to take at-bats from Marquis Grissom against righties. In the middle of a pennant drive, where the team’s most critical need is the bullpen, it makes very little sense, though.

It’ll be good not to have Felix’s salary for the offseason, but he wasn’t the problem. A bearded Robin Williams could have grabbed Felix, looked him in the eye, and said, “it wasn’t your fault,” before a cathartic hug. He had an ERA under 4.00, which was out-frickin-standing on this team. There was no feeling comfortable with him out on the mound, but, again, he wasn’t the problem. The Giants needed to add a reliever, not lose one.

With 20/20 hindsight, it is easy to come up with theories about why the Giants weren’t blessed with a good bullpen this year. The most prevalent theory -- they didn’t have any good pitchers -- makes a heck of a lot of sense. Bullpens are never easy to forecast, but the Giants didn't have too much reason for optimism before the season started.

Brendan Donnellys can have serious medical problems. Rod Becks can implode. Joe Nathans can become dominant closers. Jim Browers and Scott Eyres have a good chance to remain Jim Brower or Scott Erye...and little more. They've been okay this year; no complaints. Matt Herges can be decent, or he can be terrible, but he isn’t likely to set the world on fire. He’s settled on “likeable, but terrible” for this season.

Point being, in the risk v. reward section that should be a part of every organizational offseason sketchbook, the Giants had a lot of tallies in the risk side. Felix Rodriguez was as likely to have a dominating setup season as he was to be a serious detriment to the team. He was neither, and was the least of the Giants worries.

This isn’t to flog to Giants for not making a move. Good lord, the Mets gave up a chunk of their future plans for a couple of pitchers who are currently decent, but had their potential to be good driving most of their market value. The Price is Right urge to choose whatever is in the Mystery Box; that's what prospects are for, not the stretch drive acquisitions themselves. The Tigers wanted one of Jerome Williams, Matt Cain, or Merkin Valdez for Ugueth Urbina. That would have been an interesting conversation to listen in to:

Brian Sabean: What would it take for you to trade Urbina to us?

Dave Dombrowski: I’ll listen to what you have to say, but he won’t leave our organization without Cain, Merkin, or Jerome Williams coming over to us.

Sabean: Hmm. Well, how about we agree to trade a player named Willam Smerkincain to you, in the event he is ever born, gifted in baseball, and drafted by the Giants. Because that is about as realistic as your proposal, you drunken ass. See you in hell, Dombrowski. (*click*)

Dombrowski: Yelllllo? Brian? Brian? Bri-Bri? You still there?

The Jason Schmidt Trade Fallacy Fever didn’t infect the Giants offices, luckily. JSTFF was rampant before the deadline, and it goes something like this:

1) Jason Schmidt had great stuff and youth, but inconsistent results.
2) He was traded to a contender.
3) He discovered how to pitch, and is now a premier pitcher in baseball.
4) This was not a fluke or coincidence.

Obviously, the Mets aren’t expecting Kris Benson or Victor Zambrano to morph into Jason Schmidt right away. Just in the next couple of years would be nice. If what the Mets paid was the market rate, the Giants were right to stay far, far away from that particular rabbit hole.

Even though Sabean has the reputation of a man who loves to deal, and is the master of trying to improve his team at the trade deadline, he didn’t panic. There wasn’t anyone worth a prospect to be had. This team isn’t a jigsaw puzzle missing the final piece; it’s a Rorschach ink blot test that might look like a pony if you randomly throw more ink on it. Unless the Giants could get John Smoltz and Eric Gagne, having them alternate three inning performances, there wasn’t a reliever to put them over the top, or even close to the top. It just seems a waste to toss away a decent reliever like Rodriguez right now.

Rodriguez was on the mound for a couple of the most miserable moments in recent Giants history, but it is hard not to like a guy who was wearing orange and black for so long. When Joe Nathan was first coming up, he had a miserable start against the Diamondbacks. The scuttlebutt soon after was he was tipping his pitches. Felix Rodriguez had a terrible history of tipping his pitches as well. If he was wearing a hat, chances are he was throwing a fastball. Hitters aren’t dumb. They can spot those sorts of things.

Good luck, Felix. Thanks for not having it against your former team, however....

2) If this site should continue on for another ten years, it would be hard to be as spectacularly wrong about a player as I was about Nathan. I didn’t just leave him for dead. I rifled through his pockets, took his wallet, and considered using his blubber for warmth, Tauntaun-style. Now he’s going to be a very rich man, using a combination of outstanding arm and outstanding opportunity to cement a closer role for years to come. Just to recap:

2001, AA, 6.93 ERA, 62.1 IP, 37 BB, 33 SO, 11 HR
AAA, 7.77 ERA, 46.1 IP, 33 BB, 21 SO, 13 HR
2002, AAA, 5.60 ERA, 146.1 IP, 74 BB, 117 SO, 20 HR
2003, NL, 2.96 ERA, 79 IP, 33 BB, 83 SO, 7 HR
2004, AL, 0.85 ERA, 52.2. IP, 18 BB, 64 SO, 2 HR

That the 2001 line didn’t get him released is a tremendous credit to the Giants organization. There had to be someone -- Dick Tidrow, Fred Stanley, anyone -- who kept saying, “Seriously, the arm is still there. He’s just finding his bearings after a serious shoulder injury”, and kept pounding that message through an awful 2002 season. Good for them, and good for Nathan. The Giants got an excellent season from him, and he netted a very productive catcher in a later trade.

It’s easy to look at Joe Nathan’s 0.0002 ERA and label the Pierzynski trade as a surly failure, especially with the Giants bullpen horrors. However, Pierzynski has been one of the better offensive catchers in the league -- about as effective as the sainted Paul LoDuca -- which is especially amazing considering the brutal start he had to the season. Nathan was an injury-risk, and coming off a season completely out of line with anything he had ever done in professional baseball. His trade value was a good bet to be as high as it had ever would be. It would have been super, super sweet if the Giants had kept him, and had Yorvit hit as well as A.J. Pierzynski this year, but that trade is still defensible. No matter the result, it is still very easy to root for Nathan.

Scott Linebrink for Doug Henry, now that trade certainly has its molars in the Giants ass.

3) Neifi Perez was released. So this is what it feels like...when doves cry. According to Mike Krukow, Bonds was a little miffed because Neifi was his card-playing buddy. Now, I’m well above likening Neifi to the goat who used to keep Seabiscuit company, so I won’t even bring that up. However, there’s a part of me hoping that no matter what game the two played -- spades, hearts, war, go fish -- that Neifi just beat the pants off of Bonds every time they played. It’s the egalitarian in me. Another part of me knows that if Perez were dealt an eleven while playing blackjack, he still wouldn’t hit.

4) You didn’t see J.T. Snow coming either. Don’t act so cocky.

5) Early in this season the Giants couldn’t hit. They couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position, they couldn’t hit with the bases empty, they couldn’t hit. At all. This just makes the fact they have one of the best offenses in the National League more amazing. Snow’s amazing resurgence is a large part of the magic, but Michael Tucker has been better than we had a right to expect. Deivi Cruz isn’t an artist with the glove, but he is hitting more than other shortstops. Dustan Mohr was teetering on the waiver-wire abyss early on this year, but now he looks like he could be a possible starter next year. The offense is why this team is winning games.

The pitching. Now that’s a different story. It’s a story filled with tears, struggles, and adversity. Also, a whole lot of sucking. Jason Schmidt is the best pitcher in baseball, and while that makes up for a lot of flaws, it’s where the good news ends. Kirk Rueter, Brett Tomko, Noah Lowry, and Brad Hennessey are the other starters. Merkin Valdez had a chance to stick with the big league club, but he muffed it.^* The 2002 %#%’n Angels were able to succeed in the playoffs with a struggling Ramon Ortiz and Kevin Appier, along with an unproven John $$@!$^&%$#^@!@!^%#^%&%‘ing Lackey, but they’re the exception, not the rule.

It’s a surprise for the team to be only a game out of playoff contention, but the pitching doesn’t look like it could do anything in the postseason. Unless, and this is a big unless, Noah Lowry continues to pitch like someone hitting from the pipe in Jaime Moyer’s pocket, that is. All signs pointed to Lowry finding a niche as a situational lefty when he was thirty, but then he had to go and make major league hitters look like idiots. He was slapped around by the Phillies this weekend, so the honeymoon may well be over. Tom Glavine had a 91/56 K/BB ratio in 150 AAA innings when he joined the Braves for good. Why not Lowry, the four-year old in all of us demands?

Even if it doesn’t happen, there aren’t going to be too many moments as exciting as his complete-game shutout. Nasty, nasty changeup and perfect location; that’s a recipe for lefty success. After a lot of time dreaming about Williams, Foppert, and Ainsworth, it would be a Rod Serling-type twist to have Lowry lead the team for the next decade. Not bloody likely, sure, but still fun to dream about.

^{* Yes, I have been waiting for over a year to use that one.}

6) Job secured. Relocation complete. Internet connection up and running. Computer de-crashed thanks to a very savvy and generous future father-in-law. This site is back for good now. I’ll start working on responding to some of the emails soon. Comment starter of the week: What are your thoughts about the youngsters the Giants have featured lately? Lowry, Hennessey, and Merkin, to be specific.

Seriously, this time....

2004-08-03T19:36:00.000-07:00

I've written it before, but I'll be back soon. After finally getting set up with internet service following my move, my computer crashed, burned, and is still smoldering in a corner of my house. I'm writing this from a public library. (Hellllllo, Mr. Ashcroft!) Not being on the internet just kills me. Is everyone still laughing about the "all your base are belong to us" crap? I hope so. That sort of thing never gets old.

I'm dying to write, and I'll get on a regular schedule once I get a computer. Hopefully it will be next week. In the meantime, I apologize for not answering any emails or giving my half-baked opinion on the lack of deadline moves. Soon!

Go Giants! (And take the Warriors with you, har har....)

Don't Call It a Comeback, I've Been Here For Year.

2004-06-23T01:15:00.000-07:00

1) You have to admit, my timing was perfect. If I was going to put my writing on hiatus, why not make some bold, gloomy predictions before I left? That way, the last post can hang around like bad gas in a crowded BART car after the proclamations prove ridiculous. Perfection.

Brian Sabean wasn't too far from throwing in the towel himself. According to trusted confidante Shawn Estes, who gave the impression he text messages someone in the Giants front office several times a day, the Giants were going to "release eighteen or nineteen veterans, including Jason Schmidt and Jerome Williams." Heads were going to roll, and Willie Mays Plaza was going to run red with rivers of unproductive veteran blood. The purge began with Jeffrey Hammonds, who said:

A hundred at-bats is a lot more than most folks dream about. I'm not a .210 hitter, but that's what I've done in 2004, and if a change has to be made, I'm the one it's going to be.

It was Yogi Berra who never said, "Nothing fires a team up more than measured, respectful comments in the face of a career crisis.", and that certainly rings true now. The turnaround has been amazing. Michael Tucker has been worth the unholy sacrifice of a first-round pick. Edgardo Alfonzo has been one of the clutchiest bunch of clutches who ever clutched. Deivi Cruz has made the most of his limited time. The pitching has struggled a bit, but Jason Schmidt has remained stellar.

In the May 19^th post, I wrote: "It's time to...wonder what this team can... trade...for...in...July..." Good point, me. The hottest name on the market is Carlos Beltran, though all of the Giants outfielders are currently hitting well. Tucker, as good as he's been, should come back down to earth. The Royals are looking for a young third basemen and a catcher, which the Giants actually have in Pedro Feliz and Yorvit Torrealba.

If Feliz isn't going to play short, which is a bit of a shame, he should be traded this deadline. He's already in his arbitration years, and the value/production ratio is just going to go down from here. Losing Torrealba -- though a great working title for some cheap Miramax Oscar-bait -- would hurt the future of the team, especially for a three-month rental like Beltran, which makes the deal untenable. If the front office is disenchanted with the red-assed stylings of A.J. Pierzynski, and has no intention of signing him to a contract, Yorvit should be kept at all costs.

Though a real first baseman would be outstanding as well, it is pretty obvious the Giants need a starting pitcher to replace Brett Tomko. Tomko has a decent fastball and curve combo when he can control it, and it often seems like he's just one pitch away from being a productive starter. Unfortunately, that pitch -- a 97 mph screwball thrown with the glove hand and controlled with his mind -- is still very much a work in progress. If teams like Toronto, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are willing to deal, the quality of starters will range from "interesting" to "Pat Hentgen", though the Giants aren't likely to waste their time replacing Tomko with someone who could easily play Tomko in the Jeff Speakman flick, "Designated for Assignment".

Peter Magowan has hinted that a starting pitcher is the route to explore, but also mentioned the team wasn't willing to Ponsonate the future of the team. Matt Cain is a boy among men in AA, and had a very nice first start in Norwich. Merkin Valdez is currently covering a bald spot for the San Jose Giants, but he'll be in AA before long. At some point, a team has to consider pitchers in AA as a part of the not-too-distant future, and not as concepts.

The worst thing the team could do is to dump a Cain or Merkin for a closer, as Peter Gammons suggests. Matt Herges isn't an especially exciting closer, but the difference between Herges and Ugueth Urbina isn't worth Noah Lowry, much less the top prospects in the system. Florida milked a hot streak by Urbina all the way to a title last year, but counting on the ebbs and flows of one particular reliever is foolish, especially when the reliever isn't pitching so hot in the first place.

The Giants have options. However, the choice is mainly between overpaying for premium talent, or switching out mediocrities. If Sabean doesn't find a bargain, he is probably better not making a deal at all. It's a drag to think about, but trying to limp out a 2004 playoff team with the current flawed roster is likely the best course of action.

2) The regular updates will come starting in early July. Waiting for Boof Corporate Headquarters is relocating to San Mateo. I'll be the one in Pancho Villa, trying to shove three steak and prawn burritos in my mouth at the same time. Or the guy in section 138, yelling at Luis Gonzalez until I pass out. Comment starter of the week, er, month: What was your favorite all-time heckle?

Don't Mug Yourself

2004-05-19T23:49:00.000-07:00

1) Jason Schmidt threw a complete game, one-hit shutout on Tuesday night. He also threw 144 pitches. Some people might blame Felipe Alou for leaving him in the game for that many pitches, but it was understandable. Alou was preoccupied, going down to the clubhouse between innings to check the Zenith Trans-Oceanic for news about Lucky Lindy's baby. Because the only way Alou's decision makes sense is if he's trapped in some 1932 time-warp psychosis, where men wear derby hats everywhere they go, and pitchers throw 140-pitch complete games every time out. If the arm hurts, just spit on it and rub in some Mandrake's Multi-Wonder Miracle Balm, said Alou, possibly while jitterbugging.

There is a certain subset of baseball fans who take pitch counts very seriously. If a pitcher younger than 30 throws anything over 100 pitches, they put the back of their hand to their forehead, fan themselves with their other hand, and quietly sob, all in the exaggerated manner of a Southern belle extra from Gone with the Wind. There's something about the nice rotundity of the number 100 which can make a logical person freeze up. The twinge felt by Todd Van Poppel at pitch 87 might not show up for Livan Hernandez until ~~pound~~ pitch 268; and that makes the 100^th pitch little more than a curiosity when trying to apply it to every pitcher, everywhere.

The moving parts of the human arm and shoulder used while pitching can be affected by so, so many factors. Number of pitches thrown is a good place to start. A great place to start, even. However, when every arm is different, every pitching motion is different, and every workout/training regiment is different, there is no room for definitive statements in the great pitch count debate. This many pitches will cause injury. That many pitches are safe for a young pitcher. It's all a bunch of lame conjecture.

Schmidt throwing 144 pitches was too many. While no one knows how many pitches are too many, really, it was more pitches than will be thrown by a single pitcher in 99% of all the games which will be played this season. When you have a pitcher coming off a serious injury, and you're on the hook to pay him millions of dollars for his future performance, you don't want him in that top one percentile. That's putting a lot on the craps table.

The downside to taking Schmidt out in the eighth inning would have been measured in intangibles. The team would have lost its umpteenth straight game. Heads would hang low. Matt Herges might have taken another blown save hard, perhaps asking to go to another organization. After being informed that the Fantastic Four didn't need another Human Torch, though, he probably just would have been demoted by the Giants to middle relief. That's it.

While it isn't a pretty picture, it beats paying someone $9M not to pitch for you. The downside to leaving Schmidt in isn't only measurable in mushroom clouds and other worst-case scenarios. It's been posited that high-pitch outings lead to lesser performances in subsequent starts. It will be interesting to watch how Schmidt fares in his next start, but the worst-case scenario is why you don't risk the arm for one non-playoff win.

The worst part about this sort of thing is the lack of closure. If Schmidt's elbow bursts into flames in August, it might have been from the stress of a single awkward pickoff throw, and not this high-pitch outing. If fatigue catches up with him because of this specific start, it might not manifest itself until October. Or, at least, it might if he were still pitching in October. Sigh. We'll never know, but it wasn't ever a risk worth taking for the short term, or the long term.

A bizarre tangent to Alou's madness is there wasn't anyone warming up in the bullpen at any point of the game. If Schmidt walked three people in a row, missing badly with tired fastballs, he was going to stay in. Like the old saying goes; if you're going to beat your horse to death, you might as well do it with a cactus. Alright, that isn't an actual old saying, but it should be.

2) Someone asked if it was hard to get up the motivation to write when the Giants are so bad. That's like asking a old-time country singer if it was hard to write songs after their spouse walked out on them. We're Giants fans, and we roll around in our self-pity like a beagle in stink. What a silly question.

Barry Bonds might go on the disabled list. The team is far below .500. With two outs and the bases loaded in the ninth inning of a tie game, Deivi Cruz is who is used to pinch-hit. And that's just the first verse. The chorus could simply be a two-part harmony crooning, "Ringless...", as a pedal steel swells in the background.

For three weeks now, there has been a strong urge to write the "I give up on this team" column, but I resisted. It's still May. If they win six games in a row, they're over .500, and the Dodgers aren't as good as they have been. I can't give up on this team yet. Edgardo Alfonzo is going to rebound. Kirk Rueter is back. If you think about the first amino acids, which evolved into something that crawled out of the primordial ooze, which in turn evolved into some vertebrate mammal, which in turn evolved into a something approximating a human, and then thousands of these apelike creatures actually evolved into humans who had to meet, mate, and keep those children alive long enough to mate on their own just for Neifi Perez to be here; well, that's pretty amazing in its own special way.

Then they were swept by the Pirates at home. This team is done. I thought the 2004 Giants were going to win the division, and now I'm not only wrong, but screwed. It's better to predict doom, and then ride the coattails of a surprise success. Lesson learned. The 2004 team isn't a winner, it's a fifty-foot long flute; full of holes, and, brother, does it blow.

3) If I'm wrong, I'll gladly eat a crow-flavored Clif bar while hiking to plant a flag on Mount Ignorance. If this team is playing in the playoffs, giving up on them in May will be the least of my worries. But now it's time to jump into the abyss, and wonder what this team can barter away in July.

Marquis Grissom, even if he slumps to a .290 average, should have pretty good value. He is holding his own in the field, and there should be a couple of playoff-bound teams who could use a right-handed centerfielder with power. He should bring a B- prospect, at the least.

Kirk Rueter could do his team a favor by continuing his mini-hot streak, but he would have the right to veto any trade as a 10-5 man (ten years in the league, the last five with the same team). His contract would also be a big obstacle, with the Giants eating a lot of money if they wanted a decent return of any kind. The same would go for Ray Durham and Alfonzo, which makes them all less likely to be dealt.

Pedro Feliz is already in his arbitration years, and has an inflated value. The Giants see the grizzled 29-year old as some perverted variation of a building block, though, so he's probably staying put. If the team thinks of Feliz as a good young player, it almost seems like a waste of time wondering what other "good young players" they can trade for. However, if the Feliz-at-short gag works, then I'm being much too harsh on him.

Random relievers can always be dealt, usually garnering minimal returns. If Jason Christiansen has anything approaching a 3.00 ERA around July, he's gone. Other odds and ends from the bullpen could be traded, with the prospects received more interesting than promising.

If A.J. Pierzynski starts to hit -- he had a horrible first month last year, as well, if you want to drink from the optimism-laced Kool-Aid -- he should be the easiest to move. Maybe the Angels could use him, sending over Jeff Mathis, Casey Kotchman, Francisco Rodriguez, and, if I may channel Sam Kinison for a moment here, THE DAMN TROPHY THAT RIGHTFULLY BELONGS TO US, YOU ONE-HIT WONDER DISNEY OWNED FLUKE BASTARDS! OH, OH, OHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! Someone should want Pierzynski, hopefully giving up as much as the Giants did in the trade which made Joe Nathan a future millionaire.

There really isn't much to trade away. What if you held a fire sale, and no one came? It's a shame the Giants decided to be awful in a year when Jeff Kent wasn't approaching free agency, or Robb Nen was healthy. The players with a little trade value are saddled with huge contracts. The cheap players are either bad, mediocre, or Jerome Williams. It will be interesting to see what Brian Sabean can get for his wares, and whether he can separate the Joe Fontenots from the Russ Ortizes when they're coming from another organization.

4) The Blue Jays signed Marvin Benard to a minor-league contract. Good luck, Marvin, and here's hoping you make it back to the big leagues soon. Don't let this opportunity pass you by. If it does pass you by, it was probably because you first broke in, froze, and then raced back to wave your arms at it. The Skydome can use your unique brand of pluck, and I'm rooting for you.

5) A newish Giants/A's blog has come to my attention recently, so pay the folks at Bridge Ball a visit. When I'm drunk enough, I'll admit the A's are jostling for position as my second favorite team with the Red Sox, though not enough to actively think about either of them.

5) Comment starter of the week: Have you given up on this team? Perhaps leaving them on a doorstep, ringing the doorbell, and running like all hell?

C'mon Back Barry. If This is Some Weird "It's a Wonderful Life" Thing, We Get It Already.

2004-05-13T23:28:00.000-07:00

1) In the science fair of baseball, it's getting easier to figure where the Matt Herges experiment will place. Definitely behind the baking soda and vinegar volcano. Probably behind the kid who hooks up a dead goldfish to his model rocket launcher. A wide-eyed Brian Sabean hopes for the blue ribbon, but doesn't even get a certificate of entry. Nothing exciting to see here. Please move along.

The idea that a pitcher needed to have an eight-ball of magical closer dust to pick up saves was rejected last year, with the relative success of Tim Worrell. With the Giants winning 100 games last year, and the most expensive pitcher on the roster molding on the bench, it's hoped that everyone learned a lesson about overpaying for closers. Brian Sabean, Larry Baer, Peter Magowan; all wary of investing 15% of a team's budget in a pitcher who pitches 80 innings a year, if the lesson was properly learned.

It doesn't make watching Herges any easier, though. In July, he'll rattle off an ERA under 2.00, and all will be forgotten. Maybe. If he doesn't, the fear is there's a part in the back of Sabean's brain telling him he should have signed Eddie Guardardo to an $18M contract. This team needs help everywhere. If the team uses the savings realized when Robb Nen's contract comes up on a closer in the offseason, it'll be like buying a belt for a man without pants.

One of Herges' main problems is his entry music. When Trevor Hoffman is ready to come in, a bell sounds. Not just any bell, but Hell's bell. Brian Johnson yelps, "Satan's coming for you!". The guitars move from ominous to chugging. Brrrr. It's almost wasted on a pitcher who features a changeup, and not a devastating fastball, but it's a great entry song. "Enter Sandman" has its place in closer folklore, and Nen's entry to "Smoke on the Water" was more than appropriate.

Now the Giants have someone who comes in to a Rush song. That's all well and good if the team is looking to slay a level-12 mage, but not so much if they are looking to protect a one-run lead. No one is in the opposing dugout, crimping up a rally cap, thinking they have a chance, when an Eastwoodian figure emerges from the bullpen:

"A Monday warrior, mean mean pride
Today's Tom Sawyer, mean mean stride
Or some crap like that."

Oh, no. They forgot about Herges. The Monday Warrior. The game was already over, dammit. Hitters can't concentrate on hitting if they're in the dugout, having an ugly debate about the philosophies of Ayn Rand. Damn you, Herges, and your bewitching Canadian prog-rock, the other teams cry!

My own suggestion: The music from Star Wars that plays whenever Darth Vader appears on screen.

2) The Texas Rangers have more good position players from their own farm system in their current starting lineup than the Giants have had come through their system in the past 15 years. So when a second-round pick like Nate Schierholtz starts tearing through A-ball at the age of 20, it's only natural for Giants fans to get excited.

In World War II, our G.I.s made it through some tough times with Betty Grable and her illustrated gams. It almost seems silly now, that the object of their indescribable desire probably couldn't titillate a teenage boy of today. And yet, Giants fans haven't even had Betty Grable. We've maybe had an apparition of a dress-clad Milton Berle appear on a tortilla. Guiseppe Chiaramonte was once a glimmer of the future. Jacob Cruz and Armando Rios turned out to be the same person. Dante Powell was never the answer, unless the question was "Just who was that goof who tried to throw through the pitcher's mound in the 1997 playoffs?"

So, hop up on the Schierholtz bandwagon. Pack a light lunch. He's hitting for power, talking an acceptable amount of walks, and mauling everything in sight. The standard disclaimers apply, as it is a long way to the majors from A-ball, and there is no guarantee Sabean isn't going to trade him for Omar Daal. In the limited sample of last year and the start of this year, though, he is one of the Giants most exciting prospects in years.

3) Apologies to Jayson Stark:

Players currently with two doubles: Kirk Rueter, Jeff Weaver, and A.J. Pierzynski

Number of Giants starters who still haven't reached 10 strikeouts: Three

Number of people who claim putting the ball in play will result in a superior offense who can shut up: All of them

What happened when J.T. Snow met the lady with a freakishly large nose: Caught looking

Number of homeruns hit by the Giants opening day infield: Three

Number of middle infielders who have hit as many or more homeruns: Twenty nine

Number of double plays hit into by the Giants ÷ number of old white men who golf: One

Times Jeff Kent has looked at a sports section, and laughed at the Giants misfortune: Several

Times karma has responded by snagging Kent's moustache in his electric toothbrush: Zero

Odds Damon Minor could currently hit better than Snow: Even

Odds Ryan Minor could currently hit better than Snow: Even

Odds a cardboard cutout of Ursa Minor lifted from a planetarium could currently hit and run better than Snow: Even

Edgardo Alfonzo's career: Konocti Harbor's booking agent called; said you're too washed up to play there.

4) Apologies for the late, somewhat abridged update. I'm exhausted due to an increased workload, and getting ready to move from Oregon back to the Bay Area. I am waaaaay behind on responding to emails, which I apologize for. Nothing personal.

I'm knee deep in a job search as well. I have some decent leads in the field I'm experienced in -- property management -- but I'll take this space to ask if anyone out there knows of a job involving writing. I want to write for a living, and anything I can do to further that goal is my top priority.

Know of a position writing biographies for Ultimate Fighting Championship programs? Let me hear it. Are you an ad exec for Doll Reader magazine? I could learn to write a column about Madame Alexanders that would blow your freakin' mind. Nothing is too small or entry-level to be out of consideration. There's a part of me resigned to working in a cubicle, checking my soul at the door, for the rest of my life. I've made my peace with it, even though I still have no idea what to tip a soul-check attendant. But if I could write to pay the bills, man, that'd be sweet.

5) Comment starter of the week: You're a closer. What's your entry music?

More Analysis, Less Knock-Knock Jokes

2004-05-06T02:39:00.000-07:00

1) And every once in a while, things go your way. My incessant pimping of Brian Dallimore, as one commenter put it, made me look smart for this week, at least. I'll admit to some minor pimping, sure. Picture Taxi Driver, but the obviously adolescent Jodie Foster would have to be replaced with Ralph Macchio. Macchio was used to playing the part of a fresh faced young kid, but was at least 38 when he made Karate Kid, which would make him a good comparison for the pseudo-rookie stylings of Dallimore.

In that hypothetical situation, I would be playing the Harvey Keitel part. Gratuitous nude scenes, ahoy.

In a similar feel-good story, Yorvit Torrealba returned to the lineup, and had a succession of huge hits. A.J. Pierzynski apparently spends the time before games chomping on a big cigar, and blowing the smoke in the faces of orphans. What better way to get psyched up to hit into double plays, indeed. The pitchers want Yorvit, the fans want Yorvit. We all need a little more Yorvit in our lives, in these times.

The Giants needed the cavalry to arrive after their rough start. Picture the 55th Brigade screaming over the horizon; a bugle sounding, sabers drawn. That isn't this bunch. If Dallimore, Yorvit, and Deivi Cruz are a cavalry, it's one comprised more of burros and drunken swings, less of graceful Arabian horses and mounted troops. The excitement needs to be tempered, if just a touch.

Yorvit is good enough to start, but even after the horrible first month, the smart money is on Pierzynski. Dallimore has deserved a utility spot for a while, but he's no one's idea of a starter. Deivi is not Neifi, so he's got that going for him, which is nice. Creating an argument why the three should start begins and ends with the early miserable hitting of the incumbents. This is fair, of course, but it is only a month into the season.

Getting Neifi out of the lineup is like going after Big Tobacco; who the hell is against it? Benching Alfonzo in favor of Dallimore or Pedro Feliz is still a little short-sighted, but a strong argument could be made Alfonzo is never going to find what he has lost. My optimism is probably misplaced. Less understandable is the cry to bench Pierzynski. He has the track record, and it isn't like Yorvit has murdered the ball over the past two years. Yorvit's been perfectly acceptable, and nothing more, in his Giants career.

Felipe Alou has taken to Dallimore, so it will be interested to see who is axed from the team when Ray Durham comes back. Let's hope Dustan Mohr is working with a month-to-month arrangement, and not a lease, on his current apartment.

2) Most successful relievers have an atypical career path. This is a sentiment which should be on a plaque hanging on the wall of every major league executive, perhaps involving Ziggy in some way. The top ten active leaders in saves are a jumbled mess of failed starters, converted position players, and blue-chip starting pitching prospects who were moved to the bullpen to fill an immediate need. Witness:

John Franco was not a good prospect statistically. When he was 23, he floundered in AAA, with an ERA of 4.85, walking 42 and striking out only 54 in 115 innings.

Trevor Hoffman was a minor league reliever, and a pretty good one, before he was in the majors. Before he was a reliever, he was a shortstop, but that's another story.

Roberto Hernandez was a starter who struggled early in his career, made a return to respectability in his age-25 season. His strikeout numbers weren't anything special in the minor leagues until he was 26.

Robb Nen was a starter, and he was wilder than a coked-up Keith Moon. He was a fine starting prospect when he was a 19-year old in low-A, but didn't find success until five years later, in the bullpen.

Rod Beck was stolen from the A's, and used as a starter for most of his minor league career. He posted some nice ERAs, and excellent control. His numbers for the San Jose Giants were reminiscent of current farmhand Jeff Clark:

Rod Beck, age 21 in San Jose: 97.1 innings, 88 strikeouts, 26 walks, 2.40 ERA
Jeff Clark, age 22 in San Jose: 140 innings, 129 strikeouts, 18 walks, 2.06 ERA

Not that similar, actually, but, crap, look at those numbers for Clark! Clark is said to have a wicked curve and little else, so he might be a candidate for relief if he can't make it as a starter.

Troy Percival had pitched over 40 innings once in his four year career as a minor league pitcher -- he had been a catcher in college -- before he was in Anaheim, with varying degrees of success. He dominated the Northwest League in his pitching debut, but didn't have the same success until he was actually in the majors.

Mariano Rivera has basically never had a bad season, at any level, except for his first 19 games in the majors. He put up good numbers for a starter in the minors, but he was likely a one-pitch guy back then as well.

Jose Mesa was a bad starter in the majors after being a mediocre starter in the minors. His first extended success came his first year as a reliever, and he has had a inconsistent career ever since.

Billy Wagner is probably the biggest what-if of the bunch. He was a starter, and an awesome one. Would he have blown his shoulder out as a starter, or would he be hovering around 175 wins about now? It's best to save the second guessing for the players who don't have spectacular careers, which Wagner has surely had.

Ugueth Urbina wasn't a great starter prospect, but made it to the majors to stay by the age of 22. This was probably a case of something scouts were able to pick up on before the stats caught up.

Most of the above are among the best relievers of their generation. Then there are the middle relievers. The not-as-dominant pitchers who greatly contribute to a team's success, and become millionaires as a result. Off the top of my head: Tim Worrell₁, Jeff Brantley₂, Turk Wendell₃, Dave Weathers₄, and Paul Quantrill₅. Match those up with the following:

1. Didn't have his first good major league season until age 29; didn't have his second good one until age 33.
2. Mediocre starter in the minors, converted to relieving at age 25 and had a nice career.
3. Had some impressive minor league seasons as a starter, before a poor season in AAA at age 26. He blew out his arm, and didn't pitch again until he was 28. He is also a grade-A, froot loop jackass.
4. Mediocre prospect, awful major leaguer until he hit his stride at age 31.
5. Had consistent success as a reliever, but had to endure some awful seasons as a young starter.

If you want comedy, check out Jeff Nelson's minor league stats. From 1986-1988, he was one of the worst pitchers professional baseball had ever seen. In 1990 he converted to relieving, and has had an excellent career.

Measuring defense through statistics is not an exact science. Trying to predict who will succeed in the bullpen from a pool of failed starters or career relievers is even less encouraging, and on the same level of scientific respectability as cryptozoology or phrenology. Bullpens aren't built through the draft; they're assembled from the pieces of driftwood which float by. While searching the internet to confirm Trevor Hoffman's past as a shortstop, I came upon an article by the always entertaining Chris Kahrl, who made a host of similar points. It doesn't take a Newtonian epiphany to realize that one season's Joe Nathan is the next season's Joe Nathan.

That's about 800 words to both satisfy my own curiosity, and to support my wild-ass assertion that Tyler Walker is here to stay. Too early to tell? Absolutely. Let's just file this one under "gut feeling". He's a hometown fella, and has some slinky movement on his fastball. His breaking ball can miss bats, and there is little to not like. As a starter, he hasn't embarrassed himself. As a reliever, let's hope he's entering a second career. For all the grief Brian Sabean has received for his off-season tinkering -- mostly deserved, mind you -- it is a point in his favor that two of the more interesting contributors to the Giants successful homestand were dredged from the minor league free agent pool.

3) There is a way to dutifully pick apart Sabean's moves, and a way not to do it. Making sweeping, clumsy generalizations about his acquisitions as if the benefit of hindsight didn't exist isn't helping anyone. Nick Peters has one of these columns, and it's a shame, because there is a lot Sabean needs to be called on.

Myth #1: Sabean made a mistake by acquiring Edgardo Alfonzo instead of retaining Bill Mueller at 1/6^th the price.

Mueller had just finished two injury-filled seasons. When the Giants reacquired him from the Cubs, he was hitting .262 with no power. The last season he had played with the Giants, he hit .268 with a .333 on-base percentage and no power. He was going to be 32. The shoulda-resigned-Mueller contingent are the worst kind of morons.

Alfonzo had back problems, and four years is a long time. Those are legitimate concerns. However, he was 28, and for three of the previous four years he was one of the best infielders in the league. His poor 2002 looked like a hiccup. Other than the nebulous back problems, there weren't any yellow lights. And, to be fair, the back problems have never been mentioned as a reason for his prolonged awfulness.

Myth #2: Ray Durham was always brittle, and the Giants shouldn't be surprised with his constant injuries.

Durham was always healthy, never going to the disabled list until he was with the Giants. The wisdom of signing a 30-year old to play second base for four years can be questioned, but injuries were not a concern.

Myth #3: The Giants should have kept Reggie Sanders.

Maybe. They maybe should have kept him around after the 2002 season, if he came cheap enough. Given the choice between Sanders and Jose Cruz, Jr., without the benefit of hindsight, Sabean made the right choice. Sanders had a .324 on-base percentage, and a long, long injury history. He was going to be 35.

After playing for six teams in six years, Sanders put his foot down -- probably injuring it -- and said he wasn't taking anything less than a two year deal. It's hard to blame him, especially after he came off one of his better years. That doesn't mean he was a good investment, though. He's still injury-prone, and now he's 36. The Cardinals look like they got a good deal now, but there is still plenty of time for that contract to look bad. Remember, Damian Moss had an ERA under 4.00 at this point last year.

Myth #4: The Giants were being cheap by not signing Tim Worrell.

No way. Paying $4M to an aging reliever who, at his best, was only above-average is poor business. Matt Herges is the same pitcher, but came much cheaper. Before Worrell was on the Giants, and before he found success with the Cubs, he was kicking around the waiver wire. There's guys like him out there right now, and one of Sabean's best attributes is in finding them.

Myth #5: The Giants should have kept Russ Ortiz instead of Kirk Rueter.

Er, probably. Pitchers like Ortiz tend to age better than pitchers like Rueter. The Giants were holding a dozen eggs in Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams, and Kurt Ainsworth, while dreaming about how much fun they were going to have when they became chickens. The real problem isn't that the Giants gave Ortiz up, it's that they pissed the savings away on Michael Tucker, Neifi Perez, and J.T. Snow instead of buying one real player.

Those three acquisitions are where Sabean should be taking the most heat. Tucker was a poor starter, even when his numbers aren't adjusted for Kaufmann Stadium. Perez was, is, and will always be awful. If the Giants had Richie Sexson at first, and Bobby Abreu in right, his presence would be acceptable. Instead they have Tucker, who would be acceptable if the Giants had Sexson at first, and Miguel Tejada at short. Instead, they have Snow, who would be acceptable if the Giants had Tejada at first, and Abreu in right. Round and round it goes, where it stops, nobody knows. Wait, that's not true. It stops at fourth place. Damn.

By second-guessing all the moves Sabean made which didn't work out, even if they appeared sound at the time, it's letting him off the hook. He can ignore all the second-guessing, because a segment of it is ridiculous to the point of not deserving of a response. The Giants have black holes for 3/8^ths of the lineup. That's enough second-guessing fodder for the whole season, before the 20/20 hindsight comes into play.

4) Comment starter of the week: If you could make one move for the Giants, what would it be? It could be a trade, future free agent signing, or calling up one of the hitting prospect. Kicking Lou Seal in the crotch is implied, so think up something different.

Take the Giants...Please!

2004-04-27T23:40:00.000-07:00

1) It's easy to picture. Two guys, with horn-rimmed glasses and mussed hair, bouncing ideas off each other. Several sheets of wadded up paper on a conference table, framing the mugs of cold coffee.

"Okay, how 'bout: Runner on third, one out. A hitter bounces back to the pitcher. The runner at third breaks for the plate. The pitcher throws to first, and then the first baseman comes home for the double play."

"That's stupid. Why would the pitcher go to first?"

"Uh, well, he looks the runner at third back, then, uh, just screws up."

"And even if the pitcher freezes the runner at third, they wouldn't have time to nail him at the plate after they get the out at first."

"Well, uh, the catcher blocks the plate, or something."

They're thinking up double plays, you see. Pitching the ideas back and forth, trying to present new ways for the Giants to hit into double plays. Twenty one games into the 2004 season, and the Giants have already hit into a squajillion double plays; more than a fropillion more than the next closest team. This his hard to do when your team is near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage. Come August, and the pitch sessions will be even more ridiculous.

"So, after the grounder hits the unicorn, it caroms to the third baseman. He then throws home, and the runner at third, who is allergic to hazelnuts and a hypochondriac, starts to wonder if his throat is swelling up...."

How about a 1-4-2 double play, as described above? Sure. One where the double play isn't actually turned, but is given because a runner was out of the base line? Why not?

In Tuesday's game, the Giants had runners at first and second with no outs in the eighth inning. Michael Tucker grounded a ball up the middle, just eluding Rafael Furcal's glove. Maybe next time, Michael. The following hitter was A.J. Pierzynski -- Polish for "weak groundball", in case you were wondering -- who tried his best to hit into a double play, but Furcal bobbled the play, and was only able to get one out.

So, after hitting two straight grounders in the middle of the infield, Neifi Perez finally gets the job done. He hits a weak grounder to second, and even though Furcal can't handle the exchange, Pierzynski was trying to tackle J.D. Drew in right, which leads to a deserved interference call. Inning over.

It was like watching some nature show about salmon trying to swim upstream to spawn. The double play grounders, like the fish, have this innate sense of direction and purpose. It's almost beautiful in a way.

If you have the good fortune to know a Yankee fan, and this Yankee fan is complaining about how they have no second baseman, please kick them in the groin. There have been instances of spoiled Yankee fans complaining on the internet, but You've Been Virtually Kicked in the Crotch! cards from Blue Mountain don't have the same effect.

2) It must be hard to be a beat writer, with tens of thousands of people scrutinizing your every word. There is probably an ongoing struggle not to be repetitive, as well. With that honest disclaimer out of the way, it's time to check in on the voting for the Nobel Prize for Ridiculous Understatements. The winner is Contra Costa Times writer Joe Roderick, and it wasn't even close, for the following gem:

The way things are progressing, it may take more than (Deivi) Cruz to get the struggling Giants playing their usual brand of baseball.

That is a distinct possibility. It may take more than Deivi Cruz. It's not something we thought we'd ever have to consider, but there it is, in print for everyone to see. We'll just have to check back in July.

Brian Dallimore is hitting very well in Fresno, again, but Cruz was called up. Cruz can stand at the shortstop's position, and is able to reach about a groundball every five games which Pedro Feliz wouldn't have been able to reach. Well, five games if Cruz were a starter, which he isn't. This team isn't losing games because the backup shortstop isn't handling grounders, it's losing because it can't hit. Or pitch, but that's another matter. Any glimmer of offense would be welcome, and Dallimore is the most accessible help the Giants have.

A reasonable projection for Dallimore: .275/.330/.410. If he could do that, the Giants would have finally found some protection for Bonds.

3) Number of homers for the Giants, not including Bonds: Eight, spread out between Ray Durham, Marquis Grissom, and Pedro Feliz.

Number of two-run homers, not including Bonds: Two.

Number of three-run homers, not including Bonds: Zero.

Amazing. After 21 games, there are still five regulars who haven't homered. Other than quasi-starter Feliz, there isn't anyone homering off the bench, either. Not one stray fastball. Not one hanging breaking ball to any of these clowns. And when one of the Non-Bonds Three gets a hold of one, there certainly isn't going to be anyone on base.

These are the sort of stats which scream "fluke". There were legitimate doubts about Michael Tucker, but he isn't the game's worst hitter. Same goes for Pierzynski, Alfonzo, and Snow. They could all have bad years, sure, but they aren't likely to be the worst hitters in the game. It only seems like it right now. Between the double plays, and everyone other than a select quartet having the worst slumps of their respective careers, this team appears worse than they are. For the most part, that is.

The pitching doesn't look like it's going to get much better. though. Wayne Franklin, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo woo woo.

4) Optimism break. Ahhhh. Dan Ortmeier is doing well in AA. Matt Cain is doing very well in San Jose. The giant volcano that is Yellowstone did not cover the continental United States in several feet of ash and soot after a violent eruption. Yet.

Tune in next week for another optimism break.

5) Comment starter of the week: This team is bad.

How bad is it?

This team is so bad, ___________.

Fill in the blank, you amateur Henny Youngmans, you....

Iron Maiden Song Plus U2 Song = 667

2004-04-20T22:33:00.000-07:00

1) As the first Dodger series of the year approached, the Giants furrowed their collective brow, and screamed, "Not in our house!" Then the Dodgers let themselves in, as the Giants said, "Well, okay, you can come in. But you'll have to take off your shoes!" The Dodgers did no such thing, and tracked mud over the very expensive, non-publicly funded carpets. "Okay," said the Giants, "you don't have to take your shoes off, but please, we beg of you, don't crap in the aquarium." This, of course, was a request not honored, and began the desperate search for anything resembling a fish net or pool skimmer.

The above paragraph could have been lifted from a description of the 2000 season's start. Kevin Elster hit three homers in the first game ever at Pac Bell Park, the first strike in an eventual sweep by the Blue Horde. The Giants shook off the tough start, and went on to post the best record in baseball that year. The subtle difference between that team and this year's version is the 2000 team was good.

That may be an overreaction, but one which is completely warranted. It's hard not to want off this carousel of bad hitters, and the pitching isn't all-world either. The lineup is like an unplugged, intimate show with John Lennon, with the rest of the bill including Ratt, Starship, Nickelback, Saxon, Kwame and a New Beginning, and a solo Mike Love. There isn't a quick fix in sight, either.

New, Revised Predictions for 2004:

San Diego 90-72
Los Angeles 86-76
Arizona 85-77
Colorado 69-93
Giants 6-156

If March is the time for irrational optimism, April is certainly the time for needless panic. Hitting into sixteen double plays per game is not something a team can expect to do for a whole season, but it seems as if the Giants are well on their way. Brett Tomko is not going to give up back-to-back-to-back homeruns every game. Just every other game. The Giants' hopes are hinging on retreads and injury-cases, players who aren't as good as they once were, and players who never were very good. Check back in a month, because it is still extraordinarily early, but this start is ominous.

If you're feeling charitable to this roster assembled by Brian Sabean, remember the 2002 Angels started the season 3-8, and looked bad doing it. If you, like a good number of Giants fans, are more comfortable wading through a bog of pessimism, remember that sort of thing is generally the exception, and not the rule.

2) With the bases loaded and one out in Sunday's game, Felipe Alou had Pedro Feliz pinch hit for Dustan Mohr. Keep in mind, Feliz was one of the last pinch-hitters on the bench. Feliz and Mohr both bat right-handed. With Mohr out of the game Feliz had to play rightfield, which is not his natural position. There was no reason to bring up Feliz in that situation, unless Alou believes him to be some sort of secret weapon.

As far as secret weapons go, Feliz isn't exactly a prototype X-7 rocket. He's more akin to keeping the pull-my-finger bit in your cache of jokes on a first date, just in case all your other jokes are bombing. Sure, it might do the job. And maybe you'll end up marrying that person. However, most of the time -- about 72% in Feliz's case -- the desired effect will absolutely not be achieved. His approach to hitting is less than cerebral, and frustrating to watch. He's also been about the third-best hitter on the team so far, and probably about 39^th down on the list of things to worry about.

Of the three-headed beast patrolling right field, Mohr seems to have the best chance to pleasantly surprise. By pinch-hitting for Mohr as if he were Rey Ordonez in an American League game, Alou seems determined to not find out what he can do.

3) Barry Bonds is good.

4) One of the brighter points of the new season has been Dave Fleming. The new voice of Giants radio seemed capable in limited action last year, but he is quickly proving himself to be a fine announcer. For Monday night's game, Jon Miller was in one of his goofier moods, hilariously riffing on yoga positions. When Miller is in one of these moods, it would seem all too easy to screw it up; either by not giving Miller enough room to do his thing, or by completely ignoring the action on the field, trying too hard to join in on the jokes.

Fleming held his own, showing some restrained wit, and never losing his place in the game. His voice is very announceratorial, to make up a word, but that doesn't mean a thing if you can't call a good game. Fleming can, and considering the smooth delivery and respect he already has from the rest of the announcing team, seems like someone who will be around with the Giants for a long, long time.

5) The bold David Aardsma experiment looks like a failure. Credit Brian Sabean and Alou for throwing someone as green as Aardsma in the fire, but he hasn't looked steady at all. Even in the outings where he holds the opposition scoreless, there are usually a couple of baserunners to be found. Send him down to Fresno, or even Norwich, and call him back up if he finds his sea legs.

The roster spot will likely go to Scott Eyre, which would leave the Giants with three left-handers in the pen, and none of them especially qualified to pitch against right-handed batters. Franklin might be a casualty in that case, but the Giants don't have any right-handed pitching of any note to call up. Look for Leo Estrella, Part II: The Inheritance Comes Around, at a park near you, if Aardsma is indeed demoted.

6) Fear of Looking Stupid Theorem:

If you agree with the acquisition of a player when he first joins your team, you will be more patient with that player than others. Especially in comparison to a player whose acquisition you didn't agree with.

Michael Tucker strikes out in his first game, he's a no-good bum. Edgardo Alfonzo inches closer and closer to becoming one of the biggest free agent flops in recent memory, and in my mind he's perpetually about to turn the corner. I doubt I'll begin to throw A.J. Pierzynski to the sharks until 2005, even if he continues to hit at his current level.

The theorem doesn't apply to players who you were lukewarm on. J.T. Snow had a decent on-base percentage last year, and there weren't too many options to replace him, so it wasn't the worst idea to bring him back for another year. After a week of swinging the bat like W.C. Fields, Snow's polls are dropping. Even a whopping 65% of 13-year old girls who think Snow is cute -- historically his strongest demographic -- have "little to no" confidence in him, according to Zogby. Snow is an October morn, in the fair year of 1929. Sell.

7) Comment starter of the week: Who is your favorite forgotten Giant? I will always be partial to Felipe Crespo, but Tom O'Malley gets my vote here. No reason, either.

Week 2

2004-04-14T18:22:00.000-07:00

1) The Giants haven't won a World Series since they moved to San Francisco. This fact is thrown in the face of the Giants fan often, usually when arguing with a fan of either the A's or Dodgers. Bah. Keep your Bud Light World Championship commemorative posters from the late-'80s. We've watched Barry Bonds for the past decade. We win.

The milestones are nice. Watching him chase 755 is going to be one of the best periods in Giants history. It's more than that, though. For over ten years, the Giants have had the most exciting player in the game. He's a player who, more than any other, prevented people from going to the bathroom when their body told them to. A player who, once his name was announced over the P.A., made people run away from the concession stand with nary a napkin or mustard packet. Stadium hot dogs generally taste like feet, but eating one dry isn't a bad price to pay for watching Bonds hit.

Bonds forced a manager to walk him with the bases loaded. That was something to talk about for days, and he didn't do anything. He's hit home runs in All Star Games, won a home run derby, and dominated a World Series. When another team's fire-breathing closer came into the game, everyone in the stands got busy figuring who would have to get on base for Bonds to have a chance to hit. Bonds is the garden hose stashed in the bushes, while everyone else is screwing around with water balloons.

My favorite Bonds moment, drawing from the non-obvious division, was a 1995 game where he hit a three-run homer to win a game against Trevor Hoffman. There's a section for comments, just for questions like this: What is your favorite semi-obscure Bonds moment? Maybe it's one the rest of us have forgotten.

2) If there is a book on Michael Tucker, it seems like the Giants didn't waste time trying to find it in their scouting library. No, that time was spent idly leafing through a Maxim. Sure, the first week of the season can be wacky. Tigers are in first. Neifi is, you know, useful at the plate. There isn't much which can be definitively learned from the first week of the season.

Except....

Tucker can't hit a changeup. This can't be an early-season mirage, because he just looks too bad. Trevor Hoffman threw three change-ups in a row, and Tucker swung through all three. Every pitcher with a changeup has thrown it against Tucker, and the end result is always Tucker waving his bat as if he were holding a dead otter. This is known in some circles as a bad omen.

The position of Official Waiting for Boof Scapegoat is a hotly contested one, but it doesn't look like much of a race at this point. Consider that Tucker:

* Will end a lot of innings directly in front of Bonds.

* Cost the Giants a draft pick.

* Is signed for next year too.

* Has a very real chance to be the worst rightfielder for the Giants since Dave Martinez, depending on your affinity for Glenallen Hill.

The only thing standing in his way are some clutch hits; perhaps a walk-off homer or two. From here, though, his candidacy looks "strong to very strong". Tucker for Scapegoat in '04!

3) How bad was the lineup used by Felipe Alou on Wednesday afternoon? Here are the career on-base percentages of the group:

Neifi, .301
Snow, .353
Grissom, .319
Feliz, .274
Tucker, .338
Pierzynski, .341
Mohr, .319
Ransom, .248

That was the worst lineup fielded by a Giants team in recent memory. They were fittingly shut out by Wes Obermueller and the vaunted Brewer relief corps. Last year, in a game against Roy Oswalt, Alou ran out this group:

Eric Young
Marvin Benard
Jeffrey Hammonds
Andres Galaragga
Pedro Feliz
Neifi Perez
Todd Linden
Yorvit Torrealba

That's the '27 Yankees compared to Wednesday's lineup. To find a worse lineup in the Bonds Era, you'd have to go back to 1996. For the first game of a doubleheader, Dusty Baker started:

Benard
Bill Mueller
Glenallen Hill
Rick Wilkins
Kim Batiste
Jacob Cruz
Desi Wilson
Rich Aurilia

Note that Aurilia wasn't good in 1996, so it even looks worse than at first glance. Batting fifth...Kim......Baaaaatiste! That has to be the worst lineup of the Bonds Era. However, rooting through the bowels of Retrosheet might uncover something even worse. If you can find a lineup more putrid than that of the 9/15/96 game from the 1993-2004 seasons, you'll win a shout-out in the liner notes of my next album.

Last year, I wrote the Giants "had the depth of David Lee Roth in a wading pool." Yeah, well, it isn't any better this year. An injury to the disintegrating Ray Durham, a day off for Bonds, and suddenly the Giants are fielding something worse than the Greek Olympic team.

4) Against a left-handed pitcher, J.T. Snow should not bat second. You don't need some pithy blogger to tell you that, but apparently Felipe Alou does. To get ready for his at-bats against Chris Capuano, Jon Miller mentioned Snow had "studied some film". Judging by his at-bats, it seems a fair guess that the film was, "The Bad, the Ugly, and the Fucking Terrible." I tried to write one without the swearing, but did you see those at-bats? Sometimes you just have to calls them as you sees them.

That isn't even the worst lineup abomination Alou has presented. Neifi Perez -- who is like a fine European artisan, except he makes outs instead of handmade leather shoes -- is the de facto leadoff hitter when Durham isn't in the lineup. Neifi has had a fine start to the season, sure, but don't peel back the foil on that Swanson's Salisbury Crow just yet. It is still very, very early.

Back in 1998, Rey Sanchez had a hot start to his year. Someone in the Giants newsgroup, and I can't remember exactly who, made the bold proclamation that he'd eat a baseball if Sanchez hit .310 for the year. Wackier things have happened than a random fluctuation of a player's batting average, so I'm going to hold off on anything like that. No "walking from one city to another city several hundred miles away" gag, either. But if Neifi Perez hits above .280 this year, or has an on-base percentage of over .350, I will eat a box of black licorice. Black licorice, of course, being the flakes Satan brushes off his shoulder before a date.

Which all obscures the larger point, that Neifi should never ever ever ever ever ever ever lead off a game. Alou is setting his lineup so his worst hitter has the best chance of getting the most plate appearances. You know this. You know I know this. I'm wasting my time. Preaching to the choir. The only way to make a difference is to get out the picket signs, and do this '60s-style. Storm the administration building, as it were. "Hey hey! Alou! Neifi shouldn't lead off for you! Hey hey! Alou..."

Jimy. Oh, Jimy.

2004-04-06T01:38:00.000-07:00

From the first page of the Giants Opening Day Playbill:

Cast of Characters:

Craig Kilborn as A.J. Pierzynski
Rich Aurilia as Tony Torcato
Gallon of Kerosene as Leo Estrella
Sweaty Computer-Animated Cowboy as Kirk Rueter
My 16-year Old Nephew as Cody Ransom
Vengeful Jehovah of the Old Testament as Barry Bonds

and introducing Livan Hernandez's Gut as The Soft Dirt in Front of Home Plate

If you didn't sit through the performance, the Cliff's Notes will serve you well enough. Rueter was looking very poor in the first two innings, but he settled down. The fringe member of the pitching staff, Leo Estrella, looked like someone who would clear waivers when Schmidt comes back, and who probably lost his ranking on the trust totem to David Aardsma. Two of the bullpen's key cogs were outstanding. And the dictionary called; they ran out of adjectives for Barry Bonds.

The most impressive part of the game, apart from the Bonds homer, was the performance put in by Felix Rodriguez. The first out came quick, but then Felix fell behind Brad Ausmus 2-0 despite throwing two obvious strikes to start the at-bat. After getting to a 3-1 count, Felix was brilliant. He got Ausmus -- whose name Chris Berman insisted on pronouncing like the should-be illegal holiday of "Assmas" -- to pop up. Then he made Jose Vizcaino look like, well, Jose Vizcaino. Ausmus and Vizcaino aren't exactly Ruth and Gehrig, but Felix looked like someone to trust in the late innings. Getting that Felix back would go a long way toward a division title.

Opening day wins are just nice.

2) The December 26th of spring training came, and it found Brian Sabean dragging several trees from the curb into his living room. "Who would throw these things out? Look, this one still has some tinsel!" Some of the acquisitions were inspired; Dave Veres and Mike Crudale are worth the minimal investment the team is putting in. Leo Estrella, on the other hand, looks as promising as The Whole Ten Yards.

With Wayne Franklin around to serve as a mop-up man and emergency starter -- now I'm washing lettuce...in a week or two I'll be on fries -- Chad Zerbe would have been a situational lefty. Nice in theory, but Zerbe has been worse against left-handed hitters over his career. Enter Kevin Walker, who has battled injuries throughout his career, but more closely fits the profile of left-handed setup man by actually retiring left-handed hitters. He looked good on Monday night, retiring Lance Berkman to keep the Giants in the game.

Rotoworld wrote Sabean has long coveted Walker, and if there is one area where Sabean commands respect, it is in his ability to sew a bullpen together. From Doug Henry, Rich Rodriguez, and Felix Rodriguez, to the more controversial deal for Tim Worrell, Sabean has been able to find key contributors to his bullpen in unlikely places. There are notable failures in this particular legacy -- some Giants fans still can't go to sleep without first checking their closet for Alvin Morman -- but they are few and far between.

Jason Christiansen hasn't looked good since 2001, so an efficient Walker could be crucial. Not only for his contributions on the mound, either, as anything which allows the Giants to become less reliant on Christiansen is a good thing. Christiansen may have a good season in him, but having no backup plan other than Jeff Urban could have been ugly.

3) Neifi. Oh, Neifi. The LeMaster of his domain was in midseason form tonight, striking out in a crucial spot with two runners on base, and failing to get a ball out of the infield. Somebody's mom once said, "If you can't say anything nice about someone, don't say anything at all". It wasn't my mom, though, as she was too busy yelling things at Jeff Brantley to teach me such a thing. Who knows what she was screaming at Neifi after this game.

Some mother, somewhere, said such a thing and meant it. So from now on this blog will be free of all but the most necessary Neifi-bashing. It gets tiring, I'm sure, to read the same thing over and over. Yes, Neifi can't hit. You get it.

3.5) Boy, Neifi Perez sure can't hit. When scouting from behind a computer, it seems easy to look at a player like Marquis Grissom, and say, man, he should learn to walk. It can't be that easy, though. Maybe if Grissom consciously tries to take his walks, he loses his effectiveness, going from a .300/.320/.450 hitter to something more along the lines of a .240/.320/.380 level. Maybe Grissom has reached his ceiling as a hitter, using his wild aggressiveness as his best tool. Those aren't ideas which should be automatically subscribed to, but it is a valid counterpoint to those blithely prescribing more walks to cure a player's shortcomings.

Neifi, now that guy's got nothing to lose. He's one of the worst offensive players of all time. He's not going to get much worster. Someone should grab him by the lapels, and say, "Neifi, your glove is great, but you stink as a hitter. Try to work out some walks, because nothing else is working." Worst case, he drops from an empty .250 hitter to a .200 hitter, ditches the idea, then goes back to just being in the running for worst hitter ever. The possible rewards are obvious. You already have both feet in the dumpster, Neifi. There's no harm in digging a little bit for the recyclables.

4) Tony Gwynn, a superb color man, was in the booth for the Giants opener. When the camera was on him, it was easy to see the guy has a big melon. He's also gained a lot of weight since he broke into the league. A lot of weight.

I'm just putting the dots out there for everyone to see. It isn't my fault if people start connecting them.

Testing

2004-04-01T14:28:00.000-08:00

I've added a link for posting comments now. Thanks to Honest Wagner, a new Pirates blog, for alerting me this stuff is free.

Possible idea for the first discussion: Your feelings on abortion.

Raaaaayyyeeeeaaaain

2004-03-30T22:49:00.000-08:00

Raaaaayyyeeeeaaaain

1) Deivi Cruz? That's the best they could come up with, someone who isn't automatically preferable to Neifi Perez? His name even sounds like a fake name Neifi might give to the cops, or some alias he uses when picking up women at clubs.

"No, baby. I'm not Neifi, baby. My name is, uh, Dei..vi..."

Be warned, ladies. Every report out there starts with the smooth hands, but in the end all you're left with is the weak stick.

Cruz is a prodigal son, one of the forces of darkness the Giants minor league system unleashed on the rest of baseball, and now returning to the fold. As a hitter, Cruz is Neifi with an extra homer a month, but he doesn't have anything resembling the glove. He might be an offensive upgrade over Cody Ransom, but now you're just arguing about which Herb Alpert record to rescue from the free bin.

It wasn't always this way for Deivi. In 2000, he was a 24-year old shortstop who hit .302/.318/.449, with 46 doubles and 10 homeruns. The on-base percentage left a lot to be desired, but he was a 24-year old shortstop. Problem was, he wasn't really 24. Then he stopped hitting completely. What could have been one of the bigger success stories of recent Rule 5 draft history was suddenly another footnote in what Baseball Prospectus dubbed AgeGate.

Maybe Deivi can regain his 2000 form, and oust Neifi from the starting role. Could happen, wouldn't be the most surprising thing to ever happen, but won't happen. The Giants are going to punt offense from the shortstop position, so they might as well go with the glove man as the starter. It would be a mild surprise to see Deivi beat out the optionless Ransom, even.

Most annoying discovery of the past year: the sponsor of Neifi's baseball-reference.com page is a Cubs fan who fondly remembers Neifi screwing the Giants over. And the karmic bank keeps tacking on the overdraft fees....

2) When Brian Sabean went on KNBR in 1997 to report the Wilson Alvarez/Roberto Hernandez deal, his voice was quivering. He had just reloaded a team, and he did it in style. Wilson Alvarez wasn't an ace, but he was a very solid starter, and much better than Pat Rapp or William VanLandingham. Hernandez was a fresh arm to throw in the overworked bullpen. Sabean had added core players to a surprise contender, and he could hardly believe his luck.

This recent flurry of transactions, not so much. A good guess would be 87% less quivering. The Giants signed Dave Veres and Mike Crudale, who were both very valuable relievers as recently as two years ago. They've had arm problems which have reportedly hurt their velocity, but these raffle tickets came cheap. If Sabean has to grasp for straws, he should be commended for at least grasping at the straws who were good at one point. Ironically, he's hoping these straws don't suck. Whoa. Talk about a no smoking sign on your cigarette break.

The starting pitchers rumored to be of interest to the Giants, now that's another story. Igor Q. Scout, working on Sabean's orders, threw a shovel over his shoulder, went to the graveyard, and returned with names like Kevin Jarvis and Scott Erickson. Jarvis was the recipient of one of the worst contracts in baseball history. Yes, worse than that one. That one, too. For a low- to middle-revenue team to throw over $10M at a pitcher who was never very good in AAA, and whose breakout season consisted of a 4.79 ERA in a pitcher's park, was concentrated lunacy.

Now, there's the Overpaid Mediocrity Theorem, but that doesn't apply here. Jarvis isn't mediocre, he's bad. Probably a nice guy, and he'd clean up against AA hitters, but he isn't one of the best 500 pitchers in the world. And that's when he's healthy. Better options for the Giants rotation, especially once any salary over the minimum is taken into account, include Tyler Walker, Brian Cooper, Adam Pettyjohn, Kevin Correia, Noah Lowry, Jeff Clark, Jeff Urban, Merkin Valdez, Chad Zerbe, Jim Brower, and Kirk Rueter pitching on two days rest with his right hand.

Erickson hasn't been good for years, and is coming off serious injuries. It is hard to see the upgrade he would provide over Cooper, Correia, Walker, or Lowry. When a player like Erickson -- who was a good pitcher at one point -- is coming off injuries, it might make sense to put a little more trust in a scouting report. Problem with that idea is if his fastball were truly zipping this spring, he would be in the Mets rotation. Instead, he's likely to be bounced in favor of Grant Roberts.

The Giants rotation looks awful, as the season is wholly dependent on Jason Schmidt's bum wing. Getting another starter is one hell of an idea. The trick is to get a starter who would be an improvement on everyone in the Fresno rotation. Jarvis and Erickson are lazy choices. It seems wiser to start the season with some question marks, and to pick up a first- or second-tier pitcher in July.

So I finish this note, and then find out the Giants traded for Wayne Franklin. Great. Way to screw up an hour's work, Wayne.

Franklin isn't as bad as his Milwaukee numbers would indicate. He had two reasonably successful seasons for Houston's AAA team before the horrors of last year, and has a long history of success as a minor league reliever.

Is the difference between Franklin and Cooper worth anything in trade? Probably not, but he'll be a good long man when Schmidt is ready to come back, and is worthy of competing for Hermanson's spot. However, if the Giants insist on donating pitchers like Glenn Woolard, Greg Bruso, and Clay Hensley in every trade they make, one of them is going to bite the team in the ass.

3) Robb Nen and Scott Eyre are officially on the disabled list now, which opens a couple of roster spots. David Aardsma is being considered for one of the oopen spots, which makes sense. He has a great arm, and the successes of Chad Cordero and Ryan Wagner, albeit in limited sample sizes, seem to suggest the leap to the majors isn't as hard for relievers. He has a good fastball, a good breaking pitch, and passable control. Throw him in the fire.

A revised 25-man roster might look like this:

Starting position players (8)

2B Durham
1B Snow
CF Grissom
LF Bonds
3B Alfonzo
RF Tucker
C Pierzynski
SS Neifi

Bench (5)

Torrealba
Ransom
Mohr
Torcato
Feliz

SP (5)

Rueter
Williams
Tomko
Hermanson
Franklin

RP (7)

Herges
Rodriguez
Brower
Christiansen
Zerbe
Aardsma
Estrella

This assumes Schmidt does indeed start the season on the DL. Franklin is sort of Zerbe with onions and lettuce, so when Schmidt is back it seems likely Zerbe will be the odd man out, unless Aardsma is quickly dropped. Leo Estrella was included in the deal, and he's out of options, but he isn't anything special. On merit, and not major league experience, he would be behind Tyler Walker on the organizational depth chart. If Nen ever comes back, the team will risk losing Estrella on waivers.

Replacing Jason Schmidt with Wayne Franklin, and Robb Nen with Leo Estrella. Thus begins the 2004 season. If you would be so kind as to pass the Maker's Mark....

4) Lost in the shuffle: Kevin Correia. He was an afterthought last spring training, but Dick Tidrow's faith and acumen allowed Correia to be a very capable stopgap. Great story, but there is a little relief that goes along with his assignment to Fresno. The rapid ascent was impressive, but he is still less than two years out of Cal-Poly San Luis Obispo. Give him some innings in AAA, take the pressure off, and if he mows down the competition, great. If he needs to work on his delivery, or any particular pitches, he won't be doing it for a contender.

5) The votes are in, and the weekly post format won in a landslide. The idea of short, daily bursts of snark has been relegated to the ashtray of history. Say hello to Fat Elvis and New Coke there, daily bursts of snark.

Lost: Sense of Optimism, Last Seen in 2002. Reward if Found.

2004-03-24T19:23:00.000-08:00

1) As El Lefty Malo notes, there are rumblings Francisco Santos might make the team in the place of the injured Jeffrey Hammonds. Santos was a fringe prospect two seasons ago. His stock crashed after it was discovered his name wasn't Deivi -- or Deivis, for that matter -- he was six years older than he had previously claimed, and now goes by the symbol "§". Suddenly, a 22-year old prospect managing a .440 slugging percentage in AA, became a 28-year old hacker who couldn't walk more than once every 20 at-bats, or hit for any substantial power, in a league he was much too old for.

In a gesture of either loyalty or stupidity, the Giants didn't release Santos, instead letting him play 2003 in AAA. He was awful. Secret Window awful. There is no way to coat a .239/.261/.382 line with sugar, even if the player is a shorstop, and not a first baseman/corner outfielder like Santos. He's now 30, and the boldest bulletpoint on his resume is he was able to hit .312 off AA pitching two years ago.

It is tempting to write his spring training invitation off as the result of something positive the intrepid scouts and front office types caught, and which wasn't reflected in last year's stats. Tempting, except these are the same scouts and front office types who have presided over a player development system so barren of hitters, Marvin Benard is one of its greatest recent triumphs. Benefit of the doubt is underrated, but it is wholly appropriate to question their evaluating skills when dealing with hitters.

What remains to be seen is if these ideas of Santos cracking the roster are coming from Brian Sabean, Ron Wotus, or a figment of Joe Roderick's imagination. If anyone with any capacity to make decisions is putting stock in 40 spring training at-bats, the franchise is in big trouble both now and in the future. With the latest round of roster cuts complete, and Santos still in camp, he looks like a possibility that's being considered, along with Jason Ellison, Tony Torcato, and Todd Linden. Unbelievable.

2) The zany Feliz-to-shortstop idea seems to be somewhat of a success, possibly allowing the Giants to keep a more offensively-minded position player than Cody Ransom. Brian Dallimore was just cut from the big league camp, but was hitting the ball well. This brings up the Spring Training Statistics Theorem, which posits:

Spring statistics are useless, unless they support a point you are trying to make.

It seems obvious from the 20 at-bats this spring that Dallimore is ready for a major league roster spot, and perhaps would have been the most productive starter on the '98 Yankees. He's getting most of his innings at third base, but he has played a good deal of second base in the past. Say, that brings up the Middle Infielder Theorem:

If a second baseman can't fill in for a couple of innings at shortstop without embarrassing himself, he probably shouldn't be a second baseman to begin with.

If Dallimore had any business playing second base in the minor leagues, he should be able to cover shortstop in a worst case scenario. It's a moot point, now.

If the team takes an outfielder like Santos or Linden to fill in for Hammonds, they could still have taken Dallimore at the expense of Ransom. Ransom is out of options, but there aren't too many 40-man roster spots to go around. Like Damon Minor last year, it seems reasonable to assume he would be back in Fresno. If another team did claim him, the difference between Jaime Athas/Angel Chavez and Ransom as emergency call-ups wouldn't be big enough to lose sleep over.

Sports Weekly had an interesting rumor in the two pages of the baseball coverage they were kind enough to sandwich between the "2005 NFL Draft Preview! Only 400 Days Left!" feature, and the 34-page profile on Clinton Portis. The note mentioned the Giants were interested in Tony Womack, before he was traded from Boston to St. Louis. Womack and Neifi? That would be the most dastardly combination since Nikolai Volkov and The Iron Shiek. Look out, humanity.

3) Get a load of one of Felipe Alou's possible opening day rotations if Jason Schmidt is on the D.L.: Rueter, Williams, Hermanson, Tomko, and Brian Cooper. The Brian Cooper, you ask? The very same. Even though Kevin Correia, Noah Lowry, and Merkin Valdez are already on the 40-man roster, the 29-year old rightie has apparently had a spring impressive enough to put him in consideration for the final spot. As an emergency option in AAA, there are definitely worse pitchers to have. As the first option for replacing your best pitcher, he's like filling your radiator with Clamato.

Cooper's K/BB ratios have always been decent, though he has also given up an ugly amount of hits at every stop. With Cooper, Tyler Walker, Adam Pettyjohn, and possibly Kevin Correia, the Fresno Grizzlies should have a competitive staff. They'll also score two runs a game, but, gosh, that's just nitpicking.

The starting pitchers for the Giants have a combined ERA of 177.30 this spring, and the ugliness just keeps coming. Dustin Hermanson had his second awful performance in a row, and the game recap contained the following sentence: "Terrence Long singled home Jeff Cirillo in the third..." Ye gods. It's surprising major league contracts don't have an automatic out clause if a pitcher allows that to happen.

A notable omission in the above Chronicle article is Correia, who isn't mentioned. Ryan Jensen is, however. Who knows what that means. Jensen had a brief scare last year when he noticed a growth coming out of his back. After some tests, doctors determined the growth to be a stuck fork, and Jensen was cleared to coach.

4) The Oakland Tribune claims the Giants might have interest in Aaron Sele. Let's see. Coming off two down years? Check. Injury problems? Check. Expensive? Oh, yeah. Why isn't this deal done yet?

If the Giants only had to pick up a small portion of Sele's contract, no more than $2M, he would be an okay risk to take. Or, at least as good of a risk as Tomko or Hermanson, with the possible upside a 33-year old with shoulder problems can bring. If a team is willing to eat $6M, they might want a decent prospect in return. Nuts to that. The offer should be §, and nothing more.

5) Which format would you prefer for this site: short posts throughout the week, or the current setup of a large post once a week? Let me know with an email, and I'll go with the majority view, because I can't decide.

Advance Apologies for the Silliness

2004-03-17T01:59:00.000-08:00

Advance Apologies for the Silliness

1) The "wild West" is a vivid historical American archetype, recalling images of rugged mining towns, and cowboys sauntering up with one hand on their six-shooter, not necessarily looking for trouble, but not declining any invitations, either.

The NL West is more reminiscent of a crappy Battle of the Bands filled with bands named Ragarnok, or Mutton. Who will win the twenty hours of complimentary studio time? Will the Dodgers hit? Will the Padres field? Did they really just use a Puddle of Mudd cover as their only entry? Will the Giants stay healthy? Does someone really have to win?

The Giants are the tentative favorites, though some pundits lean toward the Diamondbacks, Padres, or Dodgers. If there's such a thing as the "it" team, the Giants are baseball's "if" team. If Barry stays healthy. If Schmidt stays healthy. If Alfonzo rebounds. Reassurance is for weenies.

The problems of the competitors are easy enough to spot. Arizona is relying on a couple of old-timers in the outfield to help carry an offense, and a 40-year old pitcher to regain his form after a knee injury. The Dodgers couldn't hit last year, and are stuffing a square Juan Encarnacion peg in a round panacea hole. Their pitching was outstanding, but they switched out Kevin Brown for Jeff Weaver, and there's no way the bullpen is going to be as good.

The Padres would be the "it" team, having a substantial amount of power in Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko, and a beautiful new park to inspire them. The defense is scary, though Jay Payton helps out in center. Peter Gammons -- who is never to be doubted, and probably has stories from Battles of the Bands all over the country -- claims Brian Lawrence's velocity is way down. The pitching is shaky aside from Jake Peavy, depending on how much credit you want to give David Wells. Some days it's obvious who should be the favorite between the Giants and Padres. Other days, it isn't so clear.

What is obvious is that the Rockies are awful. Terrible. Ranking with the Brewers and Pirates, but only if you are generous. They'd have to get on a stepladder to see the Reds. Vinnie Castilla, Royce Clayton, Shawn Estes, Joe Kennedy. Those are the offseason acquisitions. Someone take this team behind the shed, and put it out of its misery, but not until Chin-Hui Tsao is rescued. They'll still take 10 of 12 from the Giants in Coors, however. Let's not get carried away.

Predicted standings, complete with obvious biases:

Giants 90-72
Padres 90-72
Diamondbacks 82-80
Dodgers 79-83
Rockies 61-101

2) Though acute cases of Neiphobia are being reported in record numbers, there wasn't an obvious alternative for the offseason. The team wasn't willing to overpay for Miguel Tejada, and Rich Aurilia's agent spent the early part of the offseason pretending he was clever. Aside from those two, there wasn't a shortstop on the free agent market worth making a fuss over.

Cody Ransom is going to be the backup, and that seems like a bit of a waste. If circumstances force a team to play a no-hit, good-glove shortstop, it makes no sense to have another one on the bench. If there is a yin to Neifi's tragic yang, it might be Lou Collier. Collier hasn't regularly played short in the majors since 1998, so it is safe to assume is fielding isn't so hot.

And yet....

The perfect benchmate for Neifi would be someone who could hit, even a little bit, and handle short when called upon. In a sense, the Giants think they already have something like that in Pedro Feliz, but Collier has experience at the position. The downsides are obvious. He's hit like Jose Vidro over the past three years in AAA, but has consistently struggled in the majors. He's not getting younger, and at 30, his best days are likely behind him. He is a versatile player, however, able to play any position but catcher.

Ransom starting, with Collier and Feliz ready to stumble around behind him, would be a better situation for the Giants than just having a Perez/Ransom combo. Collier is in the Phillies camp, fighting for a roster spot he might not get. It wouldn't take much to get him.

Grasping at straws? Hell yes. Neifi Perez, starting shortstop. Now starting for the Giants at shortstop, Neifi Perez. Ol' Ironman Neifi hasn't missed a game yet this year, an announcer might say at some point in August. Freaking blecch. His defense might get overlooked by the statistical vanguard at times, but that doesn't mean he's fun to watch. Ogling a middling utility man from another team is as good as it is going to get, unless Jaime Athas is bit by a radioactive spider, or something.

3) It's a weird feeling, checking the score of a Giants game, and not caring if they're on the losing end. The losing streak in the beginning of the exhibition season might have got me down if I weren't checking box scores, and finding players like Ozzie Canseco are pitching the ninth innings.

That's the beauty of spring training. Giants lost? Whatever, it's just spring. Giants won? Great sign, I told you so, and Dustin Hermanson is this year's Esteban Loiza. It's like your wedding. Will you spend your life in blissful matrimony? Maybe, maybe not. But at least you got really drunk in fancy clothes.

Hey, it's spring training for baseball writers too. It's not like you pay for this stuff.

Friday's game against the Mariners is going to be televised on ESPN2, which is great news. Almost. The game is on at 11 a.m., meaning anyone slaving away for The Man is out of luck. Unless, of course, you pay attention to:

The Waiting for Boof Guide to Calling in Sick to Work for Baseball Purposes

Tip #1: Don't talk about TWFBGTCISTWFBP.

Tip #2: Don't talk about TWFBGTCISTWFBP!

Tip #3: If you are always calling in sick already, just do it again. Nobody believes you anyway, so it isn't like you have credibility to damage.

Tip #4: Start two days before with the sniffles. If you're allergic to anything, roll around in it for a while before work. The day before you call in sick, make sure you're incredibly hung over. Act like you are a determined little soldier, forsaking your own health for the company good. Maybe throwing a "I have but one life"-type sentiment out there, complete with an exaggerated Peter O'Toole accent.

Tip #5: One dangerous pitfall is being too clever with your excuse. There is no shame in simply proclaiming you don't feel well. Grandmothers dying, dogs getting hysterectomies, and pinkeye of the liver aren't necessary.

Tip #6: When starting work at a new place, make sure you're constantly patting people on the back. That way, when you've worked there for a while, it will be easy to stick funny signs on co-workers' backs. If you don't start early, everyone will know what you're up to when you pat their back later on. It doesn't have to do with staying home, but it is worth keeping in mind.

Tip #7: Don't go around telling people you are going to call in sick the next day.

The last tip might seem obvious, but it is always important to remember. The day before Game 1 of the 2002 NLDS, a day game between the Giants and Braves, I joked around with my boss about calling in sick to work. All day, I ran the joke into the ground. "Gee, I'd better get this done, because I'm not going to be here tomorrow." Har har.

Then came the poison calamari, and I spent my night making out with a toilet. The worst part about being violently ill for hours, aside from the obvious, is the strain on the muscles. The next morning, I had to crawl into work, wincing with every movement, hoping my intestines and stomach weren't going to turn into a fog and leak out my ears. How do you call in sick when everyone you work with knows you'd rather be watching a baseball game?

My out was I had never taken a sick day, and haven't taken another one since. I went into work looking like Abe Vigoda after a meth bender, and was mercifully sent home. I got to watch the game, though. So, you ask, if you never call in sick, why should I pay attention to your guide? Good question. If it's personal experience you're after, then follow this guide.

Tip #1: Never call in sick to work.

Tip #2: Eat at a restaurant where the prep cooks carry calamari in their shirt pockets throughout the day, and not in a boring old refrigerator.

Tip #3: Make sure to bring a portable television into the bathroom.

Tip #4: If your temperature is much, much too high, fill the bathtub with ice and water, and thrash around in it before you pass out. Then, while mourning your deceased son --played by Macaulay Culkin -- during a series of flashbacks, remember you died years ago in Vietnam, and none of this is real.

Hope that helps, and enjoy the game.

4) Two newer Giants blogs of note: Across the Seams and The Blog that Bonds Built. Check them out after you savor my site just a little longer. A little longer. Breath it in. Okay, now you can go.

2004-03-10T21:24:00.000-08:00

1) What a beautiful, beautiful thing to take my lunch on Tuesday, and catch an hour of the Cubs-Giants game. In the words of Jack Handey:

Is there anything more beautiful than a beautiful, beautiful flamingo, flying across in front of a beautiful sunset? And he's carrying a beautiful rose in his beak, and also he's carrying a very beautiful painting with his feet. And also, you're drunk.

The first baseball game of the spring is at least a close second, depending on the objective beauty of the flamingo.

In that game, Lance Niekro drove in a run by taking a close 3-2 pitch. There is no better way to start the season than with some irrational optimism. After watching three minutes of baseball, it was clear Niekro was going to develop into George Brett, learn to take a walk, and hit .350 for the Giants this year. Minutes later, he wrenched his ankle going after a pop-up, and had to hobble off the field. Ah, yes. Baseball. You salty bitch, you.

Spring is the perfect time for reading too much into five innings from a pitcher, or 20 at-bats from a hitter. Dustin Hermanson has six strikeouts in four innings. He's going to be an all-star this season. You don't have to go home, logic, but you can't stay here.

2) The headline to the latest Ken Rosenthal column reads, "(Alfonso) Soriano a good fit for 'Frisco". That's a shame, because I was hoping the Giants would get him. Then, after reading closer, it seems Rosenthal was talking about the Giants. His editor is just from Lithuania, or from one of the forsaken places in America where they refer to "soda" as "pop"; hence the use of "Frisco" in the headline.

The article intimates the Giants wouldn't be able to take on Soriano's salary of $5.6M unless they were able to ship Neifi Perez or Felix Rodriguez back. Let's see where that lies on the Spectrum of Likelihood:

Likely
/ \
| Sun rises in the east
|
| People Magazine puts Jennifer Aniston on cover
|
| Picture of Tommy Lasorda playing pinochle with Anton LeVey made public
|
| Giants win the NL West
|
| Rockies win the NL West
|
| Giants win the AL Central
|
| People Magazine puts Blackie Lawless on cover
|
| Sun rises in the west
|
| Neifi Perez included in a trade which brings Alfonso Soriano to Giants
\ /
Not likely

Rosenthal says the Giants might tempt the Rangers with one of Merkin Valdez, Matt Cain, and David Aardsma. Other than the fact Aardsma, as a member of the 2003 draft class, can't be traded for another few months, it sounds great. Matt Cain and Neifi as the start of a package for Soriano? Gee, as long as we wouldn't have to throw Ryan Jensen in.

3) Over at Batter's Box, there is a great piece of work on NCAA hitting statistics. The methodology incorporates the effects of different NCAA Division I stadiums, as well as the quality of the competition each batter faced, and tries to make clearer sense of college stats. After the numbers were run, here were the top ten hitters in NCAA Division I, with their draft round, 2003 professional statistics, and minor league level(s):

Hitter

Drafted

BA/OBP/SLG

Minor League Level

Jeremy Cleveland

Michael Aubrey

Rickie Weeks

Ryan Roberts

Brian Buscher

Ricardo Nanitia

Stephen Drew

Tony Richie

Tony McQuade

Jonny Kaplan

Round 8

Round 1

Round 18

Round 3

Round 14

Soph.

Round 4

Round 15

Round 12

.328/.432/.514 in 245 AB

.348/.409/.551 in 138 AB

.349/.492/.556 in 63 AB

.278/.374/.440 in 248 AB

.275/.318/.320 in 200 AB

.384/.445/.546 in 185 AB

.175/.266/.211 in 57 AB

.232/.302/.379 in 190 AB

.276/.336/.428 in 257 AB

Short-season A (Northwest League)

Low A (South Atlantic)

Low A (Midwest)

Rookie (New York-Penn)

Low A (South Atlantic)

Rookie (Pioneer)

Low A (Midwest)

Short-season A (Northwest League)

Rookie (Pioneer)

Brian Buscher has been the target of mixed reviews, to say the least. Baseball America included him in their annual list of Giants top ten prospects, while On Deck Baseball doesn't rank him in the top 40 Giants hitting prospects. He hit .393/.453/.644 in his senior season for University of South Carolina, but, until the Batter's Box study, it was hard to decipher those stats with any relative meaning.

Baseball America also write the Giants see Buscher as a "lefthanded-hitting Joe Randa", so hold off on making a reservation at a Cooperstown bed and breakfast for 2027. If Buscher has a career as successful as Randa's, he'll have beaten the odds.

Of the list above, three other players were started in as high of a level as Buscher. Weeks and Aubrey were both first-rounders, and they both demolished Low A pitching. Richie struggled mightily, albeit in only 57 at-bats. Several of the other players started off their pro careers in a promising fashion, but in lower levels. Could Buscher have come close to Cleveland's .328/.432/.514 if he had started in the Northwest League? The difference between the South Atlantic and Northwest leagues probably isn't that great, but it is worth thinking about.

The Giants showed a lot of confidence in Buscher by starting him off in A-ball. Baseball America showed a lot of confidence by including him in their top ten list. He'll be one of the more interesting prospects to watch this year.

Incidentally, Batter's Box previews the upcoming Giants season here.

Edit: HTML problem fixed. Thanks Darren!

4) Everyone who lived through it remembers where they heard the news John F. Kennedy was shot. A new generation will always remember where they were when they heard Jeffrey Hammonds was going to miss time with an injury.

"Let's see...I was in a car wash once, three times I was watching a game on television in that one apartment, twice on television where I'm living right now, twice listening to it on radio, a couple times I think I was actually at a game, four times I was on the internet, once at my sister's house, three times I was...."

Hammonds broke his hand on Tuesday, after getting in the way of a Wayne Franklin fastball. It's always a shame to see the fabrigé players go down to a fluke injury not related to balky hamstrings, so you have to feel for Hammonds.

The roster was mostly set before the Hammonds injury, as the only spot up for grabs would have been filled with Chad Zerbe, Kevin Correia, or a dark horse pitcher with an impressive spring. With Hammonds down, there's going to be a battle for a bench spot as well. The 40-man roster is full, so if Nathan Haynes hits .503 for the next month, Jesse Foppert would have to be transferred to the 60-day DL or someone would have to be dropped from the roster. I'm not sure why Foppert wouldn't be on the 60-day already, but I'm certainly not an expert on roster rules.

The candidates for the vacant outfield spot are:

Tony Torcato

Pro - He was a first round pick. Yep.

Con - Okay, look, none of these guys can really hit, so I'm not going to do one of these silly things for every outfielder in camp. Jason Ellison, Carlos Valderrama, and Torcato are all interchangable. Baseball Prospectus projects Ellison to hit .248/.315/.350, Valderrama to hit .247/.304/.371, and Torcato to hit .261/.302/.372. Nathan Haynes isn't in the book, but I'll guess he was right around .247/.303/.372. Why not?

The man who will likely fill the spot, Todd Linden, hardly blows them all out of the water with a .247/.330/.391 projection. If the point is moot, then why not have fun watching Rob Stratton? His projection of .216/.300/.447 seems a little too sunny, and I'm guessing he isn't a whiz-bang glove artist, but each of his at-bats would be an event. The guy swings at every pitch like the ball just made vague, Suge Knightish threats to his mother. If the choice is between four .250/.305/.370 guys, Stratton should make the team for the sake of the fans who come out early to watch batting practice. Reward them, Sabes. C'mon....

Stratton's PECOTA forecast is unique, as he's one of the handful of players who have a "breakout" forecast of 50% or above, meaning he's as likely to substantially improve on his last season in AAA than not. He isn't going to make the roster, so it will be interesting to see his role in Fresno.

Rotund Sham

2004-03-04T01:06:00.000-08:00

1) There has been a conscious decision on my part to refrain on commenting on any BALCO news. Only Baseball Matters has been covering the subject much more thoroughly than I could hope to, for one, and I would generally prefer to make knock-knock jokes about Johnny LeMaster anyway; such is the niche I've carved for myself.

The latest news from the San Francisco Chronicle, however, is being quoted as gospel by a lot of people, and it bothers me. The story cites a single unnamed source. This source, who is touted as an insider, has an agenda. Anyone who leaks information has an agenda. It is highly unlikely the source is doing this out of some sort of moral obligation. He or she might be intentionally spinning the news for their own benefit, or the story might be true, and the source might just like to feel important by creating news.

The old unnamed source gag is hardly a smoking gun. Good reporters can do stupid things in the effort to scoop other sources. From the opinion article linked above:

I trust all leakers and anonymous sources-I trust them to give a selective account that will benefit them, one that pleases their patrons and screws their enemies. Telling the truth, I guarantee you, ranks very low on most leakers' list of motives.

Leakers and anonymice thrive everywhere in modern journalism, even the sports pages...

I do think Bonds has been using performance-enhancing drugs. I'm not 100% convinced, but the circumstantial evidence doesn't look good. Bonds' trainer is in hot water for his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs. Bonds is almost 40, and hasn't lost an ounce of strength. I don't think it is a heretical leap of logic to say, jeez, man, that sounds a little fishy.

Barely-educated guesses aren't proof, though. I'm not about to align myself with the black helicopter crowd who run around screaming, "'Roids! 'Roids! His head is bigger! I've four different caliper readings from Bonds' phrenologist over the years, and his head has quadrupled in size! Burn him at the stake!" Do I leave the possibility open that Bonds is merely a freak of nature, and the whole business with the personal trainer is a horrible, horrible coincidence? Of course. Occam wouldn't be able to get a close shave with that baby, but I hope it's the truth. It's improbable, but not impossible.

If actual proof comes out Bonds has been using, and not just claims from Deep Flyout, I will have very strong feelings on the subject. I'll cross that bridge when there is a new, legitimate development in the story.

This piece has the feel of a "Facts of Life" episode where Tootie finds out she has cancer. My apologies. On with the subjective analysis and stupid jokes, which, trust me, will be in ample supply this season. For instance....

2) ...after finding an online anagram generator, I plugged in Dustin Hermanson, just because it was the first thing that popped in my head. His name can morph into "Harm in us tendons". Not a good sign. I foolishly thought every Giants player would have some ironic message buried in their name. After about 2938 hours fooling with the stupid site, and getting minimal returns, I can assure you that is not the case.

Kim Batiste turns into "Is beak mitt", which is almost funny. If your selective amnesia has expunged his fielding from your memory, just know he fielded as if he had a mitt shaped like a beak. Or a beak in his mitt. Or a mitt made out of beaks. Alright, so it isn't funny at all. I still enjoy the idea of loudly yelling, "Say, is that ol' beak mitt?". If I had to give the nickname "Beak Mitt" out -- gun to my head, and all that -- it would have gone to Kim Batiste anyway.

Noah Lowry can become "A horny owl", which is how some sorority girls at Rice might have described a drunken David Aardsma.

Marvin Benard can transform into "Raven Birdman", but, trust me, you don't want to see the spandex crime fighting costume that goes along with that pseudonym. Nor do you want to eat at his restaurant, "Bar and Vermin".

By rearranging the letters in Dustan Mohr's name, you get my favorite nickname for Jose Cruz, Jr: Tumor Hands. Coincidence? No way.

Dustan Mohr was a fun one, because you could create New York Post headlines by repeating his name. Dustan Mohr Dustan Mohr Dustan Mohr Dustan Mohr = Hard Donut Smut Harms Random Tush on Trash Mound!

And, last but not least: Game Six Bullpen: "Expansible Glum". That one's just not fair.

Pardon me as I observe a moment of silence for the time I heinously murdered while doing this crap.

3) Congratulations to Lon Simmons. Hawaii's favorite pun-loving, adopted son was the recipient of the Ford C. Frick Award, and will be honored during the Hall of Fame weekend. My favorite Simmons line: "The outfield is shallow......guess they haven't read many books." Of all his lame jokes, a description I doubt Simmons would dispute, that one always got me.

4) Another spring, another cockamamie story about how some pitcher is going to set the world on fire with a new pitch. This time it's Felix Rodriguez and a new sinker. C'mon, doesn't anyone remember the bogus stories about Livan Hernandez learning a two-seamer last spring? Exactly. It didn't help Livan out any. I even mocked the idea here.

Wait a minute...that ornery tub of goo had a great season! That theory didn't go far. Felix learning a new pitch is a welcome development. He's been an effective reliever, but hasn't dominated since his 2001 season. Having only one quality pitch is an obvious, and perhaps accurate, scapegoat.

Still, I can picture Scott Spiezio opening a beer bottle with his World Series ring, laughing, "Ooh. A two-seamer! Tell you what, why don't you take that pitch, and mail it back to 2002 when it might have mattered." Jerk. See if I ever follow Sandfrog around the country in my VW Bus again.

Abe Vigoda Would Make a Fine Hamlet, I Should Think

2004-02-24T23:22:00.000-08:00

1) Ah, spring. Fresh flowers. Warm showers. Birds putting on too much cologne and trying to pick up bees in dingy nightclubs. And now you can add the annual deluge of the "Five Questions for the Giants" columns to the list of spring signs. You can find the FQFTGs, as we hipsters refer to them, here, here, here, here, and here. Originality, thy name is not beat writer.

The questions aren't surprising, as they almost all deal with Schmidt's health, the morass in rightfield, and other questions crucial to the team's success, like:

Who will fill the void of pitcher with junk in the trunk on this team?

With Russ Ortiz and Livan Hernandez both traded before the season, the Giants were left with a large hole on the rotation, forcing them to overpay for the large Sidney Ponson. The current roster doesn't seem to have a pitcher with a shapeless, mushy butt to be displayed in baggy pants, slowly hypnotizing you through the centerfield camera. Can they overcome this obstacle?

Not like I could have done better. Here is a list of five things I'm hoping to see in the 2004 season, no matter how improbable:

-- A Giants no-hitter. It's been a while since The Count dazzled Giants fans. There have been near misses, like Scott Garrelts getting burned by confirmed asshat Paul O'Neill in the ninth inning, and William Van Landingham needing 305 pitches to match Kevin Brown's no-hitter through the first five innings. I'm hoping this year someone breaks through. If there is justice, Kevin Correia will do it, as the last three pitchers to throw no-hitters against the Giants were Kevin Gross, Kevin Brown, and Kevin Millwood.

-- A breakout rookie season from anyone. Todd Linden. Merkin Valdez. Kevin Correia. Noah Lowry. Cody Ransom. Anyone.

-- A blowout game where a clumsy, left-handed player is stuck at shortstop. The ol' throw-your-utility-man-in-to-pitch gag is tired. What about J.T. Snow trying to backhand a ball going up the hole, then trying to make an awkward throw? Better yet, put him in center. If you don't want to risk putting a starter out there, then put Chad Zerbe at short for an inning. Fun for the whole family.

-- Bonds shutting everyone up with a monster season. Walt Whitman would have nothing on that piece of sublime poetry.

-- Neifi Perez hitting .290/.320/.390, and not getting a contract extension. In baseball, there's nothing better than being proven wrong if it helps your team, with Marquis Grissom the best example in recent memory. I will eat a box of black licorice -- also known as Atheist's Exhibit A -- if Perez hits that well, but there is no better time to pull outlandish optimism out of your hat than at the beginning of spring training.

2) It would seem to be a harsh fate to be a Chris Gwynn or Rich Murray, where your accomplishments are measured against those of your brother, dismissing the talent it takes just to be one of the few thousand living people who are paid to play baseball. Could be worse, though.

The Giants signed Damon Minor, brother of trivia answer Ryan Minor, to a minor league deal. What's worse than being a sibling to a Hall of Famer? Being a footnote to a baseball footnote. That sells Damon Minor short, though, as he's been a pretty good minor league slugger for many years. He's 30 now, so if he hasn't set the world on fire yet, it probably isn't going to happen, but there are worse players to have in a tin can on a fallout shelter shelf.

Minor had a poor year last year, but he's always been one of my favorites. Gigantic man, gigantic swing. Back in 2002, he had a chance to snatch up a starting job when J.T. Snow was hurt, but he went down in a blaze of weak grounders to second. It would be a good story if he, Brian Dallimore, and Adam Pettyjohn motored the 2004 Grizzlies to a miracle third-place finish, and if Minor helped the Giants in a September callup.

And maybe this time around he'll tell us just what the hell is so funny.

3) A.J. Pierzynski won his arbitration case, which figures. Other N.L. executives are "floored" by the decision. Does this mean the Giants aren't going to be able to go after Vlad?

More stunning is the subtle hint Henry Schulman dropped in a State of the Yorvit article -- another beat writer fad -- that Pierzynski might be too expensive for the Giants after this season. There is no reason other than Pierzynski's own gross incompetence for him to not be a Giant in 2005. When the Giants acquire players, if they aren't over the hill, they are approaching the wrong side of 30. The organization stumbled upon a mid-20s player, already in the top third of a position where offensive talent is scarce. That's just short of a coup, and they'd be fools to let him go.

The front office isn't being too foolish in letting the season play out, because SBC Park could humiliate Pierzynski like it did Armando Rios. A $30M contract wouldn't look so hot if he hit like the bastard son of Rick Wilkins and Bea Arthur.

Torrealba's role is up in the air. As a backup, he's great. As a trade chit, his value is decent. As insurance in the event the team is forced to trade Pierzynski, he scares me because he is a legitimate option. It wouldn't have been a bad thing for Yorvit to be starting catcher for the 2004 team, but Pierzynski is clearly better. Here's hoping Pierzynski is productive in the years to follow, signs a reasonable contract, and changes his surname to Ng to make my life easier.

4) This article claims Robb Nen has developed a changeup while being injured. When your labrum is custard and your elbow creaks like a haunted house, how in the heck do you develop a new pitch? Seriously, if there are any readers with an idea, let me know. If it works, and Nen comes back to anything approaching full health, it would be unfair for him to have a workable change. Let the Nen for fifth starter campaign begin!

5) As the Giants played Butters to Greg Maddux's waitress from Raisins, the Cubs eventually gave Maddux what he wanted. Scott Boras had some nice quotes, claiming the decision tore Maddux apart. In the end golf, it seemed golf that Maddux went golf with his heart golf.

It was fun to dream, but it looks like the rotation will enter the season with some permutation of the current choices. Schmidt is coming off elbow surgery, Rueter had shoulder problems last year, Williams is 22, Brett Tomko at his best closely resembles the Livan Hernandez we gave away, and Dustin Hermanson has the inside track on the last spot. That is no better than a high-risk, medium-reward rotation. Which, I suppose, complements the high-risk, medium-reward lineup.

If there is any consolation to be found, remember the Schmidt/Rueter/Moss/Jensen/Ainsworth rotation didn't prove to be a paragon of stability. With hindsight being 20/20, I take this year's rotation.

6) Stephen Shelby has a good preview of the camp invitees for the Giants over at FogBall. And a much belated congratulations to Only Baseball Matters for the new site design, which looks amazing. The season is almost here, gentlemen.

2004-02-16T16:08:00.000-08:00

And the Not as Rich Get Not as Richer

~~The saga of where Greg Maddux ends up is unquestionably the biggest story in baseball right now. For Giants fans...~~

The saga of where Greg Maddux ends up is unquestionably the second or third biggest story in baseball right now. For Giants fans, signing Maddux would be like a stripper unexpectedly popping out of the moldy raisin cake that was this offseason. Or, if you're a family person, it would be like a, uh, beautifully framed picture of your loved ones in that same cake.

One of the headlines on ESPN.com's sidebar reads, "Cubs increase bid; Maddux rejects Giants", which is gloomy enough. The article claims "the Giants...have pulled out of the running", quoting the Contra Costa Times as its source. Well, damn.

The latest wire service report, however, is a bit more positive. While it notes the Cubs are clear frontrunners, the Giants are still involved in this alternate reality. Maybe. The best quote in the article is:

The Giants' initial multiyear offer to Maddux was spurned, but as one league source said, "So far he's spurned every offer, or else he'd be signed, right?"

Yeah! Put that in your pipe and smoke it, ESPN and Contra Costa Times! Crush my hopes and dreams of a decent offseason with some shifty reporting, will you?

In order to do my part, I'll present a list for Maddux detailing why San Francisco would be a better destination than Chicago:

- Have you seen "E.R."? It sure seems like Chicago is filled with people suffering massive injuries, crazy airborne viruses, and maniacs driving tanks through the downtown area. Not your cup of tea, Greg.

- If you play golf in Chicago, there's a good chance you will be accosted by Bill Murray, and have to endure his hilarious hi-jinks, which can really mess up your swing. Robin Williams doesn't golf.

- I once saw a documentary which detailed the delusion common in the Chicago sports fan. There were a good number of people in the film who actually believed Mike Ditka could beat God in a golf match. It was chilling.

- C'mon, Greg. Who wants to live in the "Windy City"? Sounds like a drag. You aren't going to have any wind problems in San Francisco. Nope. Wind-free, by golly.

- Dusty Baker often loses his temper, and throws hot coffee in his players' faces when they have bad games. Did you ever see pictures of Willie McGee before 1993? Yeah, he looked like Denzel Washington. The so-called "media" would never tell you this, because they are afraid of Baker.

- No Todd Walker or Aramis Ramirez booting crucial double play balls like a couple of clumsy French waiters.

- Didn't you read the cover story, "Ivy: The New Asbestos", in the new Time? I'm not going to spoil it for you, but it involves ivy, cancer, and lawsuits. Pretty heady stuff.

Keep it all in mind, Greg, that's all I'm saying.

2) Over at The Transaction Guy, there is a list of all of the non-roster invitees to spring camps. One thing that jumps out: Jacob Cruz, Marvin Benard, Armando Rios, Adam Hyzdu, Calvin Murray, Chris Magruder, and Chris Singleton are all going to be battling for roster spots around the league.

This is the gift the Giants player development system has bestowed on the rest of the league like weak-hitting bundles of gold, frankincense and myrrh. To nick a line from David Cross, the Giants are the weird Johnny Appleseeds of baseball, planting sixth outfielder trees throughout the land.

The Giants farm system has always had the motto of, "Bring us your poor, your weak, your huddled masses of marginal outfielders yearning to hit poorly or be injury-prone." Todd Linden has a chance to be a 4th outfielder, maybe even a good starter, so the Giants got nervous. They might have thought the well was drying up, which explains the fifth outfielder shopping binge this offseason. Good work, gentlemen.

3) It sure seems there has been a little bit of a backlash against the Giants ownership for being so thrifty, but this article claims tickets are going much faster than last year, when the team was coming off a World Series appearance.

1985: Hang in There!
1986: You're Gonna Like These Kids!
1987: Humm Baby!
1999: Tell it Goodbye!
2004: Thank You Sir, May I Have Another?

From a strict business point of view, there was no reason to pick up an expensive free agent this year. It wouldn't have brought in more money than they would have paid out, and the playoffs are a crap shoot. Part of me wants to shake Magowan's hand just for keeping the team in San Francisco. It doesn't make me feel better about this year, though. This is the thinnest Giants team in several seasons.

I still can't believe the Giants slogan for 1985 was "Hang in There!" That stroke of marketing genius must have doubled the sales of season ticket packages.

4) Indulge me with one more "crazy Google search which led to my site" story. On Friday, someone came to Waiting for Boof by entering "flatulent baseball catcher" into Google. That's funny on its own. Somewhere in our fair land, there was a person on a computer, hoping to find anecdotes about "Gassy" Gus McFee, the gassiest catcher in Federal League history, and ended up here. Or something.

The weirdest part is that of the top ten search results, not only is my site on there, but a link to EEEEEE! comes up, and it happens to be an edition of EEEEEE! which uses a couple of quotes from my old newsgroup postings. So, of all the terrabytes of text on the internet, of all of the billions and billions of words stored on servers somewhere, type in "flatulent baseball catcher", and you'll get links to bits of two different things I wrote, six years apart, on two different web sites. Maybe I'm easily impressed, but I think that means something.

2004-02-13T18:41:00.000-08:00

Quick Friday Update

In what seemed to be an offhand comment, Brian Sabean described a vocal minority of complainers as "the lunatic fringe". I took the "lunatic fringe" comment as referencing the "Get Vlad or the 2004 Season is Over, Doodz!" crowd, not the folks who furrowed their brow and said, "Uh, Brian? Michael Tucker kinda sucks. What gives?"

I've defended Sabean enough in the past, and though I've no secret of my displeasure with some of his personnel decisions, I've felt a little like Ari Fleischer at times, trying to paint a rosy picture where one isn't easily found. Well, Ari Fleischer before he was sacrificed along with a calico cat in order to please John Ashcroft's god.

Kidding, of course.

The "lunatic fringe" idea had legs, and several internet message boards each took the time to design their own Lunatic Fringe shirt. Three, by my count, but there could be even more. Heck, if the Utne Reader has a message board devoted to the Giants, it's a good bet there are other chat-type sites which have escaped my attention. Westwood Blues has posted a link to one of the shirt designs, but, as he notes, the look leaves a little to be desired.

This one looks good. Heck, it looks great. It was first posted to a FanHome message board, and I think it should be the next big thing. Even if you bought one of the mesh trucker hats and wore it off-center as if you think you're Aesop Rock, it could still be cool. The best part is if you don't want to drop $20 for a t-shirt, you can buy a sticker for $3.

Of course, this whole scenario reinforces the idea of a lunatic fringe. Didn't think about that. Still, buy one and wear it proud.

2004-02-10T01:03:00.000-08:00

Two Points in the Fourth Quarter: Man, Do I Hate February

1) In the tender, private moments I'm not picking my toes and waiting for Spring Training to start, I'm wondering about Greg Maddux. I wonder if there's a chance -- a real chance! -- just as the pimply Dungeon Master hopes for the head cheerleader to approach him before the 8th grade Sadie Hawkins Dance.

The response should be, "Get freakin' real", on several counts. The team is claiming it can't afford anyone, and, what the heck, those grapes are probably sour anyway. Then comes this article in Newsday, first pointed out by Jay's Giants Blog, claiming the Giants are "in the weeds" on Maddux.

Well, crap. I mean, hooray. Wait, no, I just don't know anymore.

Maddux is aging. But he was one of the top pitchers of his generation, or any generation, and is still pitching at a high level. He'll be expensive. But the Bonds Window is closing, and the Giants shouldn't rely on retreads like Brett Tomko and Dustin Hermanson to get them to the playoffs, much less to the World Series. Maddux is not a workhorse anymore, coming closer to Kirk Rueter than Roy Halladay in average innings per start. But he's only dipped below 200 innings once in the last decade, and is a decent bet to average around 200 innings again. Those are some pretty good innings, too. But....

You can see the dilemma. Ultimately, however, I'd love to have Maddux this year. If the deal stretches beyond 2005, it isn't likely to be pretty, but I'll deal with it for the sake of this year. Please, please, please, let this article be accurate, just for the sake of 2004.

When constructing mock rosters at the beginning of the offseason, I commented on a fictional rotation, noting if Jason Schmidt was unable to come back, the rotation moved from "shaky to Rangery". The only difference between that fantasy rotation and the current incarnation is the Giants signed Tomko instead of Pat Hentgen, which is probably for the worse. Maddux would help. A lot. I'll take a questionable contract in exchange for piece of mind this year. Instant gratification is underrated.

One thing to consider is the article comes from Newsday, the crack team of investigative journalists who put forth the Rich Aurilia, Ellis Burks, Robb Nen, and several million in unmarked bills for Grant Roberts trade idea in 2000. I can't find a link, but, trust me, it was a sad moment in speculative sports journalism. I don't know anything about Jon Heyman in particular, though.

Another thing to consider is though I wouldn't want to have to describe the Giants rotation as Rangery, it's a pretty good adjective for describing a rack of delicious ribs.

2) The Giants are going to give Pedro Feliz some innings at shortstop this spring. The idea has a little merit, but it isn't likely to work out. Take Neifi Perez, make him play without a mitt, add 15 homers, and you have Pedro Feliz at short. However, there isn't much to be lost by trying. I doubt Felipe Alou is going to give Feliz 400 innings before realizing, man, this sure isn't working out. Worst case scenario: Feliz swallows one of his own cleats in March by trying to turn a double play, and never plays short again. Best case scenario: Feliz plays a passable shortstop, and becomes even more valuable off the bench.

At this point, Neifi would probably put up the best offensive numbers of any true shortstop in the organization. While that is beyond embarrassing for the Giants farm system, there's not much that can be done about the problem in February. Trying Feliz at short isn't exactly an inspired solution, but it's something.

3) General rule of thumb: Changing from Joe Robbie Stadium to Pro Player Stadium is tasteless. Going from Candlestick Park to 3Com Park is tacky. Pacific Bell Park to SBC is hardly noticeable. Where once you might have associated the Giants home park with poor customer service and high phone rates, the change to SBC assures you'll now associate the park with poor customer service and high phone rates.

The money paid for the right to name the stadium took care of almost 20% of the costs to build it. At that price, a company should be able to name it whatever they want, even if the top choice is Steve Garvey's Illegitimate Love Child Park. We should just be happy the thing was built with private money.

4) Forcedcomparamania: The uncontrollable urge to make lame analogies.

Giving a multi-year contract to Greg Maddux would be like discussing the merits of Brendan Fraser's filmography. There couldn't possibly be a way to overlook the awfulness of "Monkeybone", "George of the Jungle", or, god help us, "Dudley Do-Right", but "The Quiet American" and "Gods and Monsters" were fine movies. Fraser is a compelling actor when it comes to well-written dramatic roles, and even though he's a complete hack when it comes to his comedies, that shouldn't cheapen his good moments. If Maddux got a four-year deal, 2007 would definitely be the three-hour, director's cut of "Encino Man", but there would always be the valuable moments from the beginning of the contract.

Remember, all you professional journalists, if I see that comparison in a major daily newspaper, I'm coming after you. Yeah, I'm looking at you, New York Times.

2004-02-04T00:32:00.000-08:00

"Mr. Sabean, Your Campaign Seems to Have the Momentum of a Runaway Freight Train..."

1) A short excerpt from the not-especially ballyhooed Brian Sabean chat session, which took place last week on sfgiants.com:

bsabean43: ok lets get thsi thing started. any 16/f ready to party? ;-p

kastasmxxxx: you should trade pedro feliz to the devil rays for audrey huff. he's good

bsabean43: We expect big things out of Feliz, and hope to get him 300 at-bats. We'd like to trade for the player you mentioned, but he wouldn't be able to fit into our budget. The player you are thinking of.......now, also would not fit into our budget, though we would love to have him or her.

ralphbarbieri: Now, Brian, at the risk of sounding sanctimonious, it isn't exactly an enigma of startling dimensions why the fans feel disenfranchised and alienated about the offseason. With the fiduciary concerns, and the Sisyphusian task you undertake every offseason trying to reconstruct a roster, which must be disheartening on its face, what with your getting incrementally attached to the positive aspects each specific player brings to the roster you initially constructed, again, much under the proverbial microscope, and

bsabean43: For the love of God, ask me the question, Ralph.

ralphbarbieri: What's Debbie Magowan really like?

bsabean43: Someday, I'll see you on the street, Ralph. Know that. And your friend Tolbert isn't going to be there to help you.

sgollumgal: hey, brian who would you take in a fight, legolas or aragorn?

bsabean43: I think either would make a fine addition, but their demands didn't fit into our budget.

laskeyofthelake: HEY BRIAN YOU SHOULD HAVE GONE AFTER VLAD TO PUT BEHNID BONDS. NOW HES GOING TO WALK A 300 TIMES.

bsabean43: Even if Vlad's price came down significantly, we wouldn't have been able to afford him. Put it this way, if we signed Vladimir Guerrero, we couldn't have acquired Dustan Mohr, Michael Tucker, Jeffrey Hammonds, Brett Tomko, Steve Sax, Chris Brown, or Vince Neil. The important thing isn't that those players are of extremely limited value, rather it's that I got a crapload of these guys.

It reminds me of an old saying: One magic bean will sprout a magic beanstalk, which could lead to lands too beautiful to even imagine. But a handful of regular beans might give you a few plants to subsist on for a short time, provided they aren't killed off by a winter frost. Just think about that for a while.

Thanks for your time. Your collective lunacy has been wonderful.

Of course, that wasn't the real chat. The real chat featured questions like, "Do you think the Giants can beat the Diamondbacks", in the hope Sabean would quickly type, "Not a chance in hell", and hit the submit key before realized what he was doing. The biggest surprise in Sabean's responses, other than his Alanistastic understanding of what irony is, was when he mentioned Merkin Valdez as a rotation possibility. That was actually the second time Sabean volunteered Merkin's name during the chat. Every scouting report on Merkin tends to mention his plus fastball and slider, as well as his good control, but they also usually end with the idea he'll need to further develop a third pitch to be successful as a major-league starter. In the veteran-heavy philosophy of the current regime, it would be hard to imagine a rotation spot going to a rookie who hasn't pitched above low-A.

Still, there's always a part of me that yearns for a gen-yoo-wine rookie sensation. It's not rational, but the idea of using Merkin to cover the bald spots of the rotation is fun. I'd rail against the decision, yet eagerly await every one of his major league starts.

2) Earlier in the week, the Associated Press ran a story with Giants head trainer Stan Conte saying he wasn't sure if Robb Nen would pitch this year. While that was awful news, a larger bombshell was Conte's candid admission Nen's career might even be over. Then there was an even earlier report Nen had passed away, and was now a re-animated corpse roaming the countryside, feeding on the brains of townsfolk. Conte and the Giants tried to paint a better picture in subsequent stories, claiming they had been misrepresented in the earlier stories from the AP, but there is a distinct lack of gung-ho optimism.

The only imaginable good which could come from Nen being out for the year, is it could make Sabean wary of paying top dollar for closers in the future. When Nen went down, the Giants were able to use Tim Worrell, and the bullpen barely skipped a beat. If a team is sitting on stacks of money, then they should spend on all the Eric Gagnes they want. However, the Giants are sitting by the freeway on-ramp in ratty Salvation Army duds, rattling a tin can, and displaying signs which read, "Will Gouge Season-Ticket Holders For Money". They should know better in the future. Committing over 10% of the payroll to a pitcher who averages 85 innings a season will never be a sound move.

3) If the Yankees had a young shortstop who was both talented and major league ready, Edgardo Alfonzo might be taking Aaron Boone's place in New York. As it stands, the Yankees have nothing available that the Giants would want or need. The only prospect in the Yankee system worth drooling over, Dioner Navarro, wouldn't be given up for a third baseman with an sketchy bat and a sketchier contract. Sabean was quick to dismiss any rumors relating to a trade, which is a positive sign. I still have faith in Edgardo, and a lot of the limited optimism I have for the 2004 season rests on a comeback from him.

4) You might have heard this interview with Barry Bonds already, but I've decided to upload it to my site for the benefit of those who haven't. It starts off slow, but the last eight minutes or so are Bonds at his most affable, as he tells hilarious anecdotes about former Pittsburgh teammate Jose Lind. Funny, funny stuff. The only problem with the clip is that it requires RealOne Player. If you don't have that program, you won't be able to listen to the clip, but you'll still have the advantage of not having an invasive, buggy piece of crap software gumming up your computer.

2004-01-26T00:28:00.000-08:00

Is It March Yet?, Part XVIII

1) Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Hoooooooo.

Oh, man.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahheeeheheheheheheheheeheh. Hee hee.

Hooo. Stop, you're killing me.

Now pitching for the Rockies: Number 55...Shawn Estes!

If you are a major league pitcher who has been abysmal over the past two seasons, and is trying to get his career back on track, there can't be a good reason to want to play in the worst pitcher's park of the past 70 years. The only thing keeping him in the majors, other than his being left-handed, is an intermittently brilliant curveball. The curveball, of course, is the one pitch most affected by the thin Denver air.

"Just because she's my ex-girlfriend, doesn't mean she isn't going to be a great agent. Sure, I broke up with her in public, and in front of all of her friends and family. And, yeah, I had sex with three of her sisters, and maybe I made out with her mother at her birthday party, but I'm sure she only has the best of intentions for my career. I can't think of a better choice for my agent."

In other ex-Giant news, Marvin Benard, official sponsored player of this site, signed a minor-league deal with the Chicago White Sox. Benard was a good fifth outfielder at his peak, but was paid a lot of money to be a bad starting centerfielder. Colletti's Folly was financially beneficial for him, but he might have had a longer career as a Lenny Harris-type. He was certainly miscast with the Giants, and didn't deserve the abject loathing he received. Here's hoping he makes the Sox roster, and does well in limited time.

2) Here are the players likely to be on the 25-man roster:

Starters (8)

Durham
Snow
Alfonzo
Bonds
Grissom
Pierzynski
Tucker
Neifi

Bench (5)
Mohr
Hammonds
Yorvit
Feliz
Ransom

Pitchers (11)

Schmidt
Rueter
Williams
Hermanson
Tomko

Nen
FRod
Herges
Brower
Christiansen
Eyre

There isn't much to fiddle with. There is an extra bullpen spot up for grabs, unless the team decides to carry another position player. With Alou at the helm, that probably isn't going to happen, and the battle for the last spot will be between Kevin Correia and Chad Zerbe.

If Correia and Zerbe both have awful springs, or if one of Nen/Schmidt is isn't ready by opening day, the pool of possibilities might look like:

Brian Dallimore (2B/INF/UT)
Todd Linden (RF)
Carlos Valderrama (OF)
Jason Ellison (OF)
Lance Niekro (1B/3B/Relative)
Nathan Haynes (OF)
Tony Torcato (OF)

Ryan Jensen (RHP)
Noah Lowry (LHP)
Chad Zerbe (LHP)
Merkin Valdez (RHP/Embarrassing Fashion Accessory)
David Aardsma (RHP)
Adam Pettyjohn (LHP)

Valdez and Aardsma are nothing but the longest of the long shots. Both would have to put on an extraordinary display in spring training to even be considered for a spot. Zerbe is the most realistic of the above, and might have the edge on Correia. Zerbe's odd delivery seems to work against righties as well as lefties, and he's been a reasonably effective long man before. There is rarely a good reason to carry 12 pitchers, but the best reason might be having Felipe Alou as a manager. The man loves his mid-inning switches. I'm pulling for Dallimore, who might be little more than a poor man's Craig Counsell, but has at least earned a shot as a utility man.

3) If you are in the market for Waiting for Boof First Anniversary gifts to give to your loved ones, there is always eBay. Here is a Johnnie LeMaster autographed 8 x 10, which comes with a crucial certificate of authenticity. We've all seen the "60 Minutes" exposés about Laotian sweatshops, where thousands of 6-year olds are forced to churn out LeMaster forgery after LeMaster forgery. The only way to stop the madness is to only buy authentic LeMaster memorabilia. There are some good internet sites, like lemastorium.com, and lemasterofthehouse.com, where you can be sure what you are buying is authentic. How long could I go on with this? Probably another two paragraphs before I tired of amusing myself.

This is a poster of Candy Maldonado and Smokey the Bear, which would look nice in any study. I'll bet the guy in the bear costume was still freezing cold. The point remains clear, though; only you can prevent forest fires. If by "you", they mean "Giants rightfielders", and by "forest fires", they mean "pennant-costing defensive miscues", there is hardly room for argument.

If, like many other Giants fans, you have often fantasized about waving baserunners home with impunity, this game-worn Sonny Jackson jersey is for you. Perfect for the air traffic ground controller with a sense of irony in your family.

Capitalism rocks.

4) Like sands through the hourglass, so are the formats of this site. To mark the one-year anniversary of Waiting for Boof, I've monkeyed with the look. I was able to include a host of new links, and get rid of Beat You Over the Head Orange as the dominant color of the site. Tell me what you think.

2004-01-20T20:23:00.000-08:00

Sabean To Lunatic Fringe: 'YAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!!!'

The Giants offseason isn't over, but doesn't look like it will be the type of offseason which will leave fans lying on their backs in a grassy meadow, daisies twixt their toes, humming Bread songs and contemplating who their playoff opponents will be. The last few posts of Waiting for Boof could possibly be mistaken for a hodge podge of pseudo-optimistic sentiments. Sure, Brett Tomko wasn't the worst pitcher out there. Eh, Dustan Mohr might have an upside. Hell, I even tried to use smoke, mirrors, and carafes of absinthe to make Neifi Perez seem close to an average shortstop. However, just because the Giants look to be contenders this year, doesn't mean I can rate the offseason roster shuffling as anything other than ugly.

The holes to be filled were: catcher, shortstop, first base, rightfield, and starting pitcher. The catching hole was filled with a good player, which was an encouraging start. The first base hole was filled in a second verse, same as the first, kind of way, though the song wasn't all that good to begin with. Rightfield is an experiment in quantity vs. quality, though the results aren't hard to guess. The shortstop hole went from what the team described as "a work in progress", to, "uh, sure, we're, uh, convinced we'll be fine at shortstop because of the, uh, better defense we'll get. We just didn't think about defense, 'cause, you know, we forgot. Hey, is that Bigfoot behind you?", as they slip out the back door. Dustin Hermanson and Brett Tomko might qualify as Band-Aids for the rotation, depending on your generosity, but they're a lot closer to that creepy older relative who tells you to just suck on the wound.

The team raised ticket prices this offseason, cutting payroll at the same time. Always a popular move. The brain trust laughed off possibilities of expensive free agents, instead force feeding the fans spoonfuls of I Can't Believe It's Not Gary Sheffield!, with Dustan Mohr, Michael Tucker and Jeffrey Hammonds representing that which can barely pass for a reasonable replacement of Jose Cruz. I started the offseason hoping for one impact free agent, and I got something which could almost be described as an impact trade with a whole lot of talent going to the other team. A.J. Pierzynski is one of the ten best catchers in baseball. Thus ends the good news.

If the Giants have three million bodies shuffle into their little park, leaking money the whole time, there isn't a reason to overspend for a title. At least, if you're looking at it from the perspective of a cold, soulless businessman. The team is putting up a profit, the team is competitive, what's the big deal? Maybe it's a wise move to put money aside for the days when the team isn't drawing as well, when the novelty of the new park has completely worn off. When Desi Wilsons of days yet to be take the field, and the 49ers have recaptured the heart of the fair-weather fan, that's the time to strike the free agent iron. A Vladimir Guerrero-type signing would galvanize the area, making the team seem interesting again, where it would currently be little more than a cherry on top of the Pac Bell/Barry Bonds money-making machine.

Fair enough, but ownership is insulting the current fan base. Can't afford more than $75 million, my ass. The team draws over three million fans, and the current television deal just expanded to televise almost every game. The naming rights for the ballpark will pay almost half of the debt service on the park for the next decade. The value of the franchise has to be going through the roof. This is as good as the flow of money will get. If the team is only able to hover around the middle of the league, financially speaking, it isn't going to be pretty later on. If the team is actually telling the truth, and they are losing money? Hoo boy, just wait until the new park is the old park, and they aren't employing the best player in the universe.

If the intent is to wait for a franchise player who would be a better fit, then they could at least insinuate as much. I can optimistically speculate the Giants would rather pay for a centerfielder like Carlos Beltran than a rightfielder with a suspect back, but would it really kill the team's bargaining position to drop the same hint to the loyalists out there? The doom and gloom of the offseason might have been replaced with a tentative calm. Sure, they'll tread water this year against a weak division, but look out for next year, the popular sentiment would go. It would certainly look better, and might be better for business if the 2004 Giants fall on their face. If this current incarnation of the Giants goes down in flames, there will be a lot of angry, angry people.

I don't think the 2004 Giants will fail miserably, and that's why I haven't been generous with the criticism. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers took steps backward in this offseason, making the Padres the team to fear most. The Padres are far from a sure thing, but the Giants are counting on a 40-year old hitter to continue to defy the aging process, and a pitcher who might not be fully healthy at the start of the season. Still, this looks to be another contending Giants team; the eighth in a row. It's been a good ride, and a lot of other teams would do anything just to contend for a single season, which is easy to forget. Just try and remember that as Michael Tucker flies out to medium-deep right centerfield for the 70th time before the all-star break, sunshine. I'm sure it'll be the very first thing that pops in my head.

2004-01-13T00:15:00.000-08:00

Truly A Wonder Of Nature, This Awesome Prowling Machine

1) Brett Tomko's best feature is that he isn't Darren Oliver, which automatically provides Tomko with several Get Benefit of Doubt Free cards. If the Giants were focused on acquiring a fabled innings-eater this late in the offseason, they could have done worse. The front office had understandably horrific visions of Kirk Rueter, Jerome Williams, and a recovering Jason Schmidt averaging five innings per start for the first two months of the season. As plumes of smoke rose from various parts of Jim Brower, the Giants might have had to overpay in a mid-season trade for someone comparable to Tomko.

On the Mohr-Tucker scale of acquisition excitement -- ranging from 1 to 10, with 1 being "not exciting", and 10 being "still not exciting" -- Brett Tomko is somewhere in the middle. He's been a slightly below-average pitcher over his career, with the exception of 2003, when he was awful. He was truly a special kind of awful last year, mostly due to the rate at which he allowed hits. A list of the average amount of hits Tomko gave up over nine innings of work, for the seasons where he pitched over 50 innings:

Hits per nine innings

1997 - 7.57
1998 - 8.46
1999 - 9.16
2000 - 8.97
2001 - (34 innings)
2002 - 9.34
2003 - 11.19

The numbers for 2003 are an obvious hiccup. If Tomko can allow hits at a rate similar to his career averages, he should be close to an average starting pitcher. The spacious dimensions of Pac Bell might even make him look like an above-average pitcher. Unfortunately, there is also the little matter of his penchant for giving up homeruns. Over his career:

Homeruns per nine innings

1997 - A lot
1998 - Quite a few
1999 - A lot
2000 - Ho, crap
2001 - A lot
2002 - A lot
2003 - Very few. No, wait, a lot.

If Tomko allows the same number of hits and homeruns as 2003, he'll be as popular among Giants fans as a flatulent Mike Piazza in an elevator. If he pitches 200 innings of near-average baseball, which seems a bit more in line with his career, he's a bargain. Which will it be? My, this is a cliffhanger worthy of sweeps week. Wake me when it's over.

Of the players still left in the free agent bargain-bin, Tomko was the best of the bunch who could realistically be tabbed as a solid bet to pitch 200 innings. The other options were Shawn Estes, Darren Oliver, Glendon Rusch and Todd Ritchie; all possum-flavored Jelly Bellys in the metaphorical handful comprising a major league rotation. If the Giants wanted to gamble on a player with a checkered injury history, Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Astacio, and Rick Reed would have been preferable, but that course of action would have been a definite gamble. If they wanted a pitcher with a history of good health, Tomko was the only logical, non-Maddux choice.

2) Vladimir Guerrero wasn't the birthright of the Giants fan. He would have been nice, no doubt, but he wasn't the only player worthy of a post-Bonds franchise tag. If the front office had legitimate reasons to doubt his health, and not fictitious reasons invented for a public relations smoke screen, they were very wise to wait until next offseason. With Nomar Garciaparra, Richie Sexson, Derrek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Magglio Ordonez, Eric Chavez, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Vidro free agents after this season, there is no reason to give out long-term, high-priced deals to a player whose health you are unsure of. With the majority of the NL West treading water, it could turn out to be a smart play to wait a season for the perfect fit.

The Giants have a guaranteed payroll of less than $60 million committed to the 2005 season. Let the whining to sign Lance Berkman begin.......now.

3) Fallout over last week's post suggesting Neifi Perez might not be that bad:

a. No, I'm not drinking Robitussin as if it were lemonade on a summer day.
b. Hey, Baseball Prospectus - in their collective abacus-toting wisdom - agree with me!

I plan on subscribing to Prospectus' premium content this year, but have not done so yet. I was fortunate enough to receive an email from a reader who relayed some of BP's numbers regarding Rich Aurilia and Neifi. Their systems compare players to the average at their position, for both offense and defense. Aurilia saved about three less runs than the average shortstop in the field, but created about three runs over the average shortstop with his bat. Neifi saved about 13(!) runs over the average shortstop in the field, while losing 13 runs with his feeble hacking. End result: the two are, at least according to Baseball Prospectus, close to average shortstops.

I'm not savvy enough to understand exactly how Prospectus arrive at their numbers, so it wouldn't be honest to give the stats my full endorsement. However, the difference between Neifi's on-base percentage and Aurilia's on-base percentage, prorated out for a full season, is about 30 outs. It seems perfectly reasonable that Neifi converts 30 more groundballs into outs than Aurilia would over 150 games, closing the gap between the two. It isn't just that Neifi is a good defensive shortstop, it's that he's the Albert Pujols of shortstop defense by most defensive metrics.

After all but exclaiming Neifi was the second gunman on the grassy knoll, I don't expect a Pied Piper-like horde to follow this line of thinking. I'm not even convinced myself. It's just interesting to think about, and I'm all about optimism for the offseason. Pessimism is for August.

2004-01-06T02:15:00.000-08:00

Starting In Rightfield: Tuckammondohr, Mayan God of the Unimpressive

1) If it was Brian Sabean's goal to run through the thick forest brush of free agency, picking up fourth outfielders as if they were ticks, this offseason has been an unqualified success. Dustan Mohr is a decent enough player, and the minor leaguer the Giants gave up to get him isn't likely to be missed. Still, the deal was a reminder that, at least for this particular offseason, Raul Mondesi would have been a cup of liquid excitement.

My new personal nickname for Michael Tucker: Lyme Disease.

2) There are still free agents out there, just no one who is a hybrid of both realistic and good. Vlad is good, but not realistic. Eric Owens is realistic, but not especially good. If Greg Maddux would back off his demands of a four-year contract, $10M per year, and a coat made from the mane of six unicorns, he would be a welcome addition, though still only slightly more realistic than Vlad.

The highly anticipated non-tender deadline came and went, though it turned out to be unworthy of even mild anticipation. Jason Johnson was the only moderately intriguing starter, and he signed for about $5M more than he should have had a right to expect. The availability of Damian Moss sends my spine running for a sweater. If the Giants are able to package Yorvit Torrealba for a real player, Ben Petrick would be a great player to have backing up A.J. Pierzynski. If the team is convinced they need one more bullpen arm, Cliff Politte would be a decent risk to take. It would have been a bold move to sign Danys Baez as a starter -- or at least put one Dany in the bullpen, and the other Dany in Fresno -- but free spending Tampa Bay beat everyone to the punch.

There is nothing more than a pride of minor upgrades out there, so, with any luck, this is the team that will enter spring training. I write "with any luck", because the Giants are still linked to one of the worst pitchers of the past several years, Darren Oliver. Standing pat is a better plan of action at this point than committing too much to a sub-mediocrity.

3)Brian Sabean wakes up, rubbing his head and in obvious pain. He somehow makes it to a sitting position, kicking an empty Monarch Gin bottle as he searches for a bottle of aspirin.

SABEAN (VO)
What happened to me last night? I don't remember a thing.

A natural order begins to reveal itself : Brush teeth, shower, lie the hell back down. As he starts to the bathroom, he hears running water. Before he can process what it means, he hears the singing. Sabean focuses on a pair of jeans draped over a chair. Those aren't his pants. He rushes to the chair and quickly fumbles for a wallet, hoping to find out who is tunelessly deconstructing an Al Green song in his shower.

The wallet is filled with an obscene amount of cash, and the license reads: "Neifi F. Perez".

SABEAN (VO)
Oh, god. No. No. Please be for only one year. Please be for only one year. Please....

From the upcoming Miramax feature, "Winter Meetings"

As the sun sets on the Rich Aurilia Era, an unholy moon dares to cast light on the Neifi Perez Era. A full season of Neifi is going to be ugly, at least at the plate, but I'm starting to gain some respect for his defense.

Rich Aurilia is an average defender and an average hitter, which is a nice combination to have in a shortstop. There isn't anyone out there who would prefer him in the field over Neifi, though. Just to pluck a number from thin air, let's say Neifi gets to 30 batted balls that Aurilia would not have reached over a 162-game season. That's roughly one every five games. It seems like a fair estimate, but I'm no defensive expert. If we magically transform those putouts from the defensive side into singles on the offensive side, prorating Neifi out to 600 plate appearances, his 2003 stats would be a less dismal .310/.328/.378. Not too far off from the .277/.325/.410 Aurilia put up last year.

I'm sure there are a ton of theoretical problems with what I just did. Bill James, I'm not. It is all to express a basic point that saving a number of hits over an average defender has substantial value. If Neifi hit .310/.328/.378, while playing defense only as well as Aurilia, there would be a lot less hand wringing taking place.

Yes, I'm grasping at straws. I'm sure my math skills and statistical acumen are both remiss here. Tell me exactly where through the magic of email.

Win Shares, however, seems to agree with the basic point. Neifi logged almost 400 less innings in the field than Aurilia, but had more Defensive Win Shares. To be honest, I wouldn't know a Defensive Win Share if it goosed me in a crowded movie theater, but Neifi's defensive dominance over Aurilia seems very real, even to the layman. Neifi actually led the whole team in Defensive Win Shares, even though he was only a part-time player. I just wish I knew what the hell that really meant.

4) If Aurilia does end up signing with Seattle, it would be good news. There would be nothing worse than to watch him waste away in Detroit, without a chance to be a part of the next good Tiger team. At least Seattle has a pulse.

5) With no news in the world of the orange and black, I'll dig through the archives to comment on the "Official Program & Scorecard" of the 1983 Giants.

The inside cover had an ad for bottled sangria which looked like it, if you were lucky, would only make you sterile. It was apparently sold at Candlestick Park during actual games. "I'll take, 'Things I Wouldn't Even Bother Pouring On An Obnoxious Dodger Fan', Alex.'

There is also an ad featuring the other National League teams, with a mug shot of the featured player from each team. The jist was, "Come see Team X, and one of their stars, Player Y!", with accompanying dates. Some of the player and team combinations were obvious (Mike Schmidt and the Phillies, Pedro Guerrero and the Dodgers), some were less obvious (Jose Cruz and the Astros, Al Oliver and the Expos), and some were just bizarre (Jerry Royster and the Braves, Dane Iorg and the Cardinals).

The 40-man roster was profiled, with an impressive amount of young talent making up a substantial portion of the roster. Atlee Hammaker, Rob Deer, Scott Garrelts, Chili Davis, and Dan Gladden were all under two years of service time. They would all enjoy periods of success, though only Davis enjoyed an extended career. Deer, Davis, and Gladden would still be the best outfield produced by the Giants system in the past twenty years.

Everyone had a moustache. From the front office types to the managers, everyone looked like Jeff Kent. There was no way of knowing if they were going to pull you over for speeding, or be paid to turn on a camera during sex.

Two of the National League managers in 1983 are still managing today. I'll leave you to guess who they are.

In 1983, there was someone who had a strong opinion about the trade which sent Al Hargesheimer to the Cubs for Herman Segelke, but no way of expressing it. I would have loved to have read what Waiting for Garrelts, Westwood New Wave, or The New Giant Moon Man would have had to say.

2003-12-14T23:32:00.000-08:00

Don't Consider Yourself At Home

1) The Giants farm system is thin. Very thin. It just ran to the bathroom to throw up the Saltine it had for lunch. Now is not the time for the team to throw up its hands, and decide spending money on the amateur draft is futile. It shouldn't be too hard to keep pace with financial juggernauts like the Brewers or Royals with regards to player development. Paying signing bonuses to draft picks isn't the same as dumping the money down a sewer drain; it's an investment. Considering the Giants draft position was at the bottom of the first round, the Giants would have been able to sign a pick for less than a million dollars. Instead, they intentionally forfeited the rights to the pick by signing Michael Tucker.

The value of the draft pick wouldn't have been realized this year, so the general idea behind the Great Draft Pick Giveaway isn't that ridiculous. If a team really, really has to adhere to a strict budget, but it hones in on a player it can't do without, the idea of sacrificing a piece of the future for the crucial extra million isn't automatically wacky. But:

a. The player in question was Michael Tucker. Decent fourth or fifth outfielder, but hardly the keystone of any roster.
b. The team was, at the very least, playing footsie with an expensive Darren Oliver, who would be a waste of a roster spot at the major league minimum.
c. The Giants average over three million fans a year. They just negotiated a nice, new local television contract. They are likely going to drop out of the top ten in total payroll this season. They can't afford a draft pick? Awful.

The most offensive point above isn't the team claiming it can't afford to spend $900,000 on a first-round draft pick, but that the reason they can't afford the expenditure is so they can chase after terrible players like Oliver. In case you were wondering, my disgust regarding Oliver is not an example of the Formerly Overpaid Mediocrity Theorem, but rather the Darren Oliver Theorem, which posits:

Darren Oliver is terrible.

Oh, and your season tickets will be more expensive next year. You know, to pay for all of these star-powered salaries.

2) It is worth noting that at this time last year, Neifi Perez was the starting second baseman, Ray Durham was the starting centerfielder, and my head was about to pop like a warm pimple. Sabean was an idiot, the sky was falling, and the Giants were assured of no better than a third-place finish. The lesson learned was that you shouldn't start frothing at the mouth before the roster is complete.

That written, things aren't looking good. The two players most often linked to the Giants are the aforementioned Oliver, and Jeromy Burnitz. Yee haw. Luckily, the two players have some variety of Shelley Long Syndrome, where they tend to wildly overestimate the demand for their services. If Burnitz comes to the Giants for one year and $1M or less, I'll be glad to have him, but he's reportedly looking for a three-year deal. Oh, but of course. There's a contract for you over there, Jeromy. Right behind the harmonica-playing sunflowers, and next to the dancing panda who solves crime. Aren't things wonderful here in Fantasy World, Jeromy? Tack on a fourth or fifth year if you'd like, we don't mind. La la la la laaaaa.

Of the remaining free agents, only Juan Gonzalez would make a major difference in the lineup. There aren't any more shortstops left on the free agent market, and unless Sabean can hoodwink the Expos out of Orlando Cabrera, Neifi will be the starting shortstop. According to the abacus pusher here, though, that isn't such a bad thing. It is easy enough for armchair pundits like myself to try and identify good offensive players, but the world of defensive evaluation is still wide open. Could Neifi be an above average shortstop, once defense is taken into account? The mind boggles.

Any significant upgrades the Giants will make are likely to be via trade, unless Greg Maddux decides he's willing to pitch for, ahem, Darren Oliver money. There isn't much left to trade, though. The best guess is the Giants will get one more starting pitcher through free agency, overpaying for a guy not much better than Dustin Hermanson or Kevin Correia. At least, that's what I thought before reading this article from sfgiants.com, where Sabean is quoted as saying, "we'll leave (the Winter Meetings) doing something," and the "something" doesn't involve a starting pitcher. It is all so very confusing.

3) If you are in the mood to give the front office some credit, here's a theory for you. Sabean is wearing his master strategist cape, and accurately predicts the NL West will be weaker this year. Schilling's gone, the Padres pitching isn't quite there, and the Dodgers are trying to keep costs down for the new buyers; it's a war of attrition. The plan is to hold the fort, and to not spend more money than is necessary, while building a nest egg for the 2004 offseason. The list of free agents who will available is impressive:

Nomar Garciaparra
Troy Glaus
Pedro Martinez
Derek Lowe
Trot Nixon
Magglio Ordonez
Carlos Beltran
Javier Vazquez
Eric Chavez
Carlos Delgado
Richie Sexson
Derrek Lee
Lance Berkman
Richard Hidalgo
Jeff Kent
Orlando Cabrera
Matt Morris

It blows this year's class out of the water, unless you're looking for a shortstop, which the Giants might be. These players aren't represented by morons, so more than a few will try and re-sign before they are eligible for free agency. If they don't, however, the market will be diluted with big talent. The following Giants are under contract for next year, not including deferred money or signing bonuses:

Herges, $1.5M
Rodriguez, $5M
Rueter, $6M
Schmidt, $8.75M
Pierzynski, ~$4M (arbitration eligible)
Alfonzo, $6.5M
Durham, $6.5M
Bonds, $15M
Tucker, $1.75M
Williams, $.5M
Torrealba, $.5M
Approx. total: $54.5M, with others being available for arbitration
^{Contract totals courtesy Ahead of the Curve and the mysterious MLB Contracts}

The Giants can hope for some luck, as well. If Todd Linden develops, that's a cheaply filled slot. If one of Noah Lowry, Kevin Correia, or Merkin Valdez progresses, that would be another one. Jesse Foppert should be back. Baseball America likes the chances of both Valdez and David Aardsma to quickly reach a major league bullpen, so they could be cheap Nen replacements. Assorted pieces can be found to fill out the roster, and if the Giants are serious about developing a nest egg from this season's savings, they could be in the market for one or two of the above players. If that's the plan, the only downside is that Bonds is no guarantee to continue his run as the best player on the planet and could even be expected to steeply decline, leaving this season as the best chance the team has in the near future. Also, the divisional competition might prove more daunting than expected.

If this is the strategy, though, it isn't a bad one. Depending on the free agent targets, it might be a great one, and you can ignore the indignation found in the first section of this post. It is a drag to start thinking about 2005, though. I want it all now, damnit! Now, now, now! What good is gratification if it isn't instant?

2003-12-10T23:38:00.000-08:00

Top Ten

With Baseball America set to release their list of Giants Top Ten Prospects, I'll try and come up with one of my own before they influence me too heavily. This list comes with the following disclaimer:

I am nothing more than an amateur prospect hound. The only thing I know about these players, other than their stats, is whatever I can pick up from the obvious sources of Baseball America, ESPN.com, and sites like On Deck Baseball. This list is for entertainment purposes only. Wagering is expressly prohibited. Cash value: 1/100 of 1¢

It's a little embarrassing to go through with this list, as I've recently learned minor league organizations are foolish wastes of money. Hopefully the Giants will find a way to sell these prospects, and get their money back.

10. Craig Whitaker, RHP

Highest level: Rookie

Season stats: 8 K/4 BB in 5 IP, 1.69 ERA

Notes: He hasn't really proven anything professionally, but the scouts love him. It has been suggested that the "Moneyball"-effect hurt the draft status of high school pitchers, and that the Giants were lucky to get him in the supplemental round. As a trade chit, I think he'll be a major asset. As a major league pitcher, it is way too early to start projecting him.

9. Todd Jennings, C

Highest level: Short-season A

Season stats: .296/.346/.391 in 233 at-bats, with 3 HR

Notes: He produced eerily similar stats to his last two years at Long Beach, which weren't that impressive. However, it was his first time using a wood bat, and his defense is considered to have tremendous potential. He didn't take a walk in his first 90 or so at-bats, but racked up 15 in his next 140 plate appearances, which was somewhat encouraging. Of all the players on this list, Jennings was the one I was least sure about including. Lance Niekro has hit over .300 consistently in the high minors, but he's a first baseman who can't take a walk. It is actually illegal in several states to discuss Jennings without referring to him as an "athletic catcher", so he seems like the better pick.

8. Daniel Ortmeier, OF

Highest level: High-A

Season stats: .304/.378/.471 in 408 at-bats, with 8 HR

Notes: Ortmeier has produced consistently since being taken in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft. He hits for average, and has a decent idea of the strike zone. In last year's top 10 chat, Jeff Fletcher thought the Giants were looking at him to be a centerfielder, which would lead me to guess he has a fair amount of range. It would be a little surprising for him to be anything more than a backup in the majors, but in this system he's a top position prospect.

7. Matt Cain, RHP

Highest level: Low-A

Season stats: 90 K/24 BB in 74 IP, 2.55 ERA

Notes: He's 19, and was shut down early with arm problems, but was dominant when he was healthy. For a teenager to slice through the Sally League, exhibiting good control and great strikeout numbers, is about the most you can hope for from a high school draftee. If he's healthy, he could be pushed aggressively like Boof Bonser was before he was traded.

6. Noah Lowry, LHP

Highest level: Majors

Season stats: 97 K/47 BB in 118 IP, 4.72 ERA (AA), 13 K/6 BB in 19 IP, 2.37 ERA (AAA)
5 K/2 BB in 6 IP, 0.00 ERA (Majors)

Notes: He doesn't have the upside of a Cain, but he's one of the Giants few remaining prospects likely to see major league action this year. He's a softish-tossing lefty, capable of reaching the low-90s, and has a nice out pitch with his changeup. He's the next line of defense, should the Giants lose a starter to injury.

5. Nate Schierholtz, 3B

Highest level: Short-season

Season stats: .400/.449/.489 in 45 at-bats, 0 HR (Rookie), .306/.382/.460 in 124 at-bats, 3 HR (Short-A)

Notes: I'm worried I'm jumping the gun on Schierholtz, just like I did with Julian Benevidez two years ago, but there's always optimism when a 19-year old makes a debut like this. He hit for average and he hit for a little bit of power, all against older competition. He doesn't strike out much, which is probably the biggest difference between Benevidez and himself, but he doesn't walk all that much. Last year, he would walk four times in every game after I had given up hope on him ever exhibiting an ounce of discipline. He's as exciting a player as the Giants have in their system, and it will be interesting to see if they start him in San Jose.

4. David Aardsma

Highest level: High-A

Season stats: 28 K/7 BB in 18.1 IP, 1.96 ERA

Notes: Aardsma was one of the highest-ranking prospects before the 2003 draft, but a dead arm lead to unspectacular numbers in his last season at Rice. Before the college season started, he was expected to be one of the first college pitchers drafted, but entered the draft as a fringe first-rounder. I was able to watch him in the College World Series, and confirm the common scouting reports that start with the good fastball, and always mention an inconsistent slider. He dominated in his professional debut, with the Giants limiting his workload after a long college season. The way Brian Sabean hinted at "internal options" in the interview following the Joe Nathan trade, it would seem Aardsma would have a fast track to the majors as a reliever. The Giants haven't decided if his future is as a starter, but he could reach the majors quickly, just like fellow 2003 first-rounders Chad Cordero and Ryan Wagner. I do hope he's at least given a look as a starter. He seems to have a bright future, but, remember, first-round picks are generally worthless. Well, not worthless, but certainly not as valuable as a fifth outfielder.

3. Kevin Correia

Highest level: Majors

Season stats: 73 K/30 BB in 86.1 IP, 3.65 ERA (AA), 23 K/2 BB in 19 IP, 2.84 ERA (AAA)
28 K/18 BB in 39.1 IP, 3.66 ERA (Majors)

Notes: The reason I trust the Giants scouts, Correia was a big surprise to me in 2003. Not to Director of Player Development Dick Tidrow, though. He tabbed Correia as being close to the majors after an iffy start to his pro career in Salem-Keizer. Then the organization dropped him in AA, about two levels higher than I would have guessed, and pushed him up to the majors when they needed to fill a hole. He has a lot of movement on his fastball, and certainly performed well in his audition in the majors. He'll be in the rotation, unless the Giants sign another starter.

2. Merkin Valdez

Highest level: Low-A

Season stats: 166 K/49 BB in 156 IP, 2.25 ERA

Notes: The guy who could turn the Russ Ortiz trade from an embarrassing miscalculation to a lucky break. He started off the season like he was ready for AA, but hit a rough patch trying to pitch through a leg injury. After he healed, he resumed his dominating ways. Jayson Stark quotes a scout as saying he hit 98 mph, and had "a big arm". I'll guess he'll start in AA this year, and would be a candidate for an emergency start or two this year. He seems far away, but so did Dontrelle Willis at the start of last year. When a pitcher starts a season in AA, there's a chance he could make it to the majors the same season. He's the best pitching hope in the Giants system, as well as the best hope for the beleaguered souls suffering from crotch-pattern baldness.

1. Todd Linden

Highest level: Majors

Season stats: .278/.356/.412 in 471 at-bats, 11 HR (AAA), .211/.231/.316 in 38 at-bats, 1 long-ass HR

Notes: His walk rate declined dramatically over his AA season, but he struck out less as well. He's a switch-hitter with solid defense, and potential for good power who has held his own despite some aggressive promotions. Though his year-end stats don't look that great, it's worth noting he started the season hitting like Neifi Perez with his eyes stapled shut. It was May before he recorded his second extra-base hit. He's still young, not turning 23 until after the 2004 season begins.

Just to take a stab in the dark, here is my prediction for the Baseball America list:

10. Niekro
9. Ortmeier
8. Whitaker
7. Jennings
6. Schierholtz
5. Cain
4. Aardsma
3. Correia
2. Linden
1. Valdez

2003-12-08T01:52:00.000-08:00

Look Out! It's a Flurry of Transactions!

1) In the spirit of the Bernard Theorem, and the Armchair Scout Theorem, I present the Formerly Overpaid Mediocrity Theorem:

If a player is of mediocre or worse talent, and grossly overpaid at any point of his career, he is likely to be irrationally designated as useless, regardless of future salary or performance.

Jeffrey Hammonds is a good example, but my favorite example is Raul Mondesi. Yes, his contract was one of the worst contracts of the past decade, and in his typical season he is no better than an average rightfielder in terms of production. But he’s not a bad player. If he’s the worst player in a given lineup, the lineup in question is mighty impressive. Sometimes, however, it seems Mondesi is considered the blackest of lineup voids, micturating over any hopes his team might have to score runs. He just might be King Jackass of Dick Mountain, but that’s not what I’m talking about. All things being equal, Mondesi is a useful player.

Michael Tucker is not a bad player. As a left-handed hitting outfielder who can cover centerfield, he fits the Giants perfectly. My initial reaction of the signing was to alternate between shaking my fist at the heavens, and crossing out the “I ♥ Brian S.!”s lovingly scrawled on my Pee-Chees. Then I came around. Tucker is a useful player to have on the bench.

I dislike the contract for other reasons. It’s too long. One year would have done just fine, and the second year is unnecessary. Another problem is the amount of the contract, which averages $1.75M, or at least one million dollars too much per year. For a team trying to pinch pennies, they could find better ways to spend their money than on a fourth/fifth outfielder.

Overpaying someone by $1M or so isn’t the worst of offenses, at least in most cases. It probably won’t force the Giants hand regarding a decision between Bartolo Colon and Todd Ritchie. If the $1M is the difference between signing Vladimir Guerrero or not, then it would be the worst personnel decision in recent memory. That isn't the case, though, and it isn’t likely anything more than a silly waste of money. It isn’t my money, and I’m glad to have Tucker on the bench.

If the Giants have to give up their first-round draft choice for signing Tucker, the deal moves from slightly bearable overpayment to unbelievable idiocy. For the moment, I’ll assume the ink on the contract wasn’t dry until after the arbitration deadline. Maybe the Royals officially declined arbitration before the deal was announced. I can't imagine even the wildest scenario where the Giants could not wait until the 8th to sign him, so I’ll just guess there is some sort of technicality I am not aware of.

2) There was no reason to not offer arbitration to Sidney Ponson. The Giants were right to not want to sign him to a long term deal, as he has already gone through shoulder problems, and is about a cheeseburger away from chaining Carrie Fisher to his locker. If he gets a 3- or 4-year deal from any team, which is what I would expect, it will be a mistake both in price and length.

However, if he were to win his arbitration case, he could have been traded. When David Bell surprised the Mariners by accepting arbitration, they shipped him off to the Giants. If Ponson won his case, receiving something in the neighborhood of $8M, it would be hard to imagine him being an untradeable commodity. Eric Milton is going to earn $9M this year, pitched less than ten innings last year, but was still able to be traded. For warm bodies, even. If he declined arbitration, the Giants would have received two compensatory draft picks.

The Giants also declined to offer arbitration to Rich Aurilia, Tim Worrell, Benito Santiago, Marvin Benard, Andres Galaragga, Jose Cruz, Eric Young, and, just to be sure, Charlie Hayes.

Where was the risk? I'm sure Ponson and his agent are aware this is his best chance for a multi-year contract, and they would have rather taken a Kelvim Escobar-size deal than a one-year payoff. I wouldn't have taken the risk with Santiago, Worrell, and maybe Aurilia unless I had a team lined up to trade with. Ponson, though, was an embarrassing mistake.

There have been teams who have not had a first-round draft pick in recent years, and have compensated in other ways. They have signed international free agents, or gone after players who fell in the draft due to signability concerns, paying them all first-round money. If the Giants are contemplating something similar, the decisions to not offer arbitration make a bit more sense. Just a bit, though.

3) Signing Snow is like going to a wild party with your ex-girlfriend, surveying the single women at the party, and, after determining they all look like Adrien Brody, leaving with the ex-girlfriend. It’s familiar, it’s defensible, and there are much worse options. Feliz will start against a good number of left-handers, and another hole is filled.

Just like the man who opens a Sharper Image catalog, and decides he can't live without a laser-guided pool sweeper, I woke up on Saturday deciding the Giants should sign Rafael Palmeiro. Raffy would have provided a boost of confidence to anyone looking for ways to increase their scoring, giving an immediate lift to any offense. He is more capable of rising to any occasion than any other major leaguer.. Just ask your doctor about it.

4) That notion is dashed now, but the rumors keep coming. The Sacramento Bee reports the Giants are pursuing Miguel Tejada. The author of the piece admits it's possible he's being fed disinformation, which is classic.

"Boss, this is probably a load of crap. Can I run with it?"

Not that I blame the guy. Reporters are useless this time of year, unless they are being used as pawns by owners, general managers, players, and agents. Here's hoping the rumor has a kernel of truth, however, because if the Giants are looking into Tejada, they are at least entertaining the idea of stretching their budget.

Tejada has the potential to be a terrible contract. He's not that much of an improvement over Rich Aurilia, but is seeking the deal of a superstar. If the Giants are looking for a post-Bonds superstar, they should look elsewhere. Yet, Tejada is an awesome player just entering his prime. Even if the contract he receives cripples the team in years to come, it would be a spectacular signing for the short term. The piddling moves the Giants are making leave me hope there is still the potential of a major acquisition. Tejada isn't my first choice, but he would leave me giddy about 2004, just as long as I could forget about 2009.

5) The roster, as it stands currently:

c Pierzynski, $2.5
1b Snow, $1.5
2b Durham, $6
3b Alfonzo, $5.5
ss ?
lf Bonds, $15
cf Grissom, $2
rf ?

bench
c Torrealba, $.5
3b/of Feliz, $.9
ss Neifi, $2.75
of Hammonds, $1
of Tucker, $1.75

sp Schmidt, $8.5
sp Williams, $.5
sp Rueter, $5
sp Hermanson, $1
sp Correia, $.3

rp Nen, $9
rp Rodriguez, $3
rp Herges, $1
rp Christiansen, $2.3
rp Brower, $.9
rp Eyre, or his closest free agent equivalent, $.8
rp Replacement for Worrell on market, $1

TOTAL: Approx. $73

So, either two holes are going to be filled with the remaining $2M under the self-imposed salary cap, or the front office will go over their budget. Man, it had better be the latter. The only way a Tucker/Hammonds platoon is palatable is if Tejada is in the lineup, and the only way Neifi getting 600 at-bats is palatable is if the team signs a real rightfielder. I have the nagging feeling the remaining money is going to be spent on a mediocre starting pitcher, and the lineup will enter the season as it looks right now. What a waste of Bonds that would be, regardless if the team made the playoffs again.

^{On Friday, Baseball America is going to publish their annual Top Ten Prospects List for the Giants. On Wednesday, I'll post my top ten list, so as to avoid being influenced too heavily.}

2003-12-02T00:43:00.000-08:00

Ready For You To Wow Us, Sabes. Any Day Now.

1) When the Diamondbacks signed Mark Grace, I laughed. They still had Erubiel Durazo, Greg Colbrunn, and Alex Cabrera, but paid good money to fill a hole that didn’t exist. I probably chortled at one point. Derisively, even. The morons had first basemen coming out of their ears, and they blew money on nothing more than the lazy security of a name brand.

Now, my life is a campy horror movie. When I close my medicine cabinet, sometimes it isn’t my reflection in the mirror. Instead, it’s a fanged imp of retirement age, wearing a Diamondbacks golf shirt and shrieking, “Count the rings! Count the rings, baby!” My only choice is to hop in the tub and suck my thumb. Stupid Mark Grace and his veteran leadership.

So it’s with great reservation that I even mention my confusion regarding the Richie Sexson trade. I don’t get what they’re doing, but they’re welcome to it. Sexson is a very good player in his prime. He’s a great player to have in the middle of any lineup. Every team in the majors would find a place for him, even if it meant sticking him in the outfield.

However, the Diamondbacks had internal options for first base. This is similar to the Giants trading for A.J. Pierzynski when they already had a cheap catcher in the wings, with one huge, looming difference. The Diamondbacks gave up Curt Schilling to get Sexson. Ouch. Ivan Rodriguez would have been a substantial improvement over Yorvit Torrealba, but the only way any Brian Sabean would part with Jason Schmidt to get Pudge is if he were popping peyote buttons like Necco wafers. The analogy isn’t without its flaws, but the general point stands. The Diamondbacks gave up Curt Schilling. Curt Schilling. Curt Schilling isn’t on the Diamondbacks anymore. Yaa-freakin-hoo.

The revised Arizona plan is a house of cards, counting on the following twists of good fortune:

a. Matt Kata will hit like he did in his first 100 at-bats, and be an average hitter for his position, even though his minor league stats only suggest a career backup.

b. Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez will refuse to decline.

c. Randy Johnson will bounce back to his 2002 form, in his age 40 season.

d. Alex Cintron will continue to be an above-average hitter for his position, even though his minor league stats only suggest an average major league shortstop.

e. Robbie Hammock will continue to be an above-average hitter for his position, even though his minor league stats only suggest a career backup.

f. Brandon Webb will continue to pitch better than his minor league stats would indicate.

g. The team will compensate for an average lineup -- if you’re feeling generous -- by relying on multiple young pitchers, which doesn't translate into instant success too often.

Now, minor league stats aren’t everything. Players who did not stand out in the minor leagues, yet remained consistent producers in the majors, are not anomalies worthy of a Dateline lead story. And just because players are entering their late 30s/early 40s doesn’t mean they are automatically going to turn into A-ball rejects. Some of the above players will exceed expectations, or at least remain as good as they were last year. I don’t see any reason why Brandon Webb won’t be just as successful, for instance. The point stands, however, that those are a lot of serious question marks.

Junior Spivey and Chad Moeller are better than Kata and Hammock now, and might still be in three years. Sexson is a monster hitter, no doubt, but Lyle Overbay wasn't Jeff Cirillo, wholly corrupting his team's offense. Overbay was the least of the Diamondbacks worries, and he even fit the blueprint of a team trying to achieve the simultaneous goals of winning immediately and cutting costs.

The rotation isn't necessarily bad, not by any means, but it sure doesn't have the same punch as it would with Schilling. That would be Curt Schilling: Ex-Diamondback. Curt Schilling isn't on the Diamondbacks anymore. In case you didn't hear. Nope, he was traded. Go figure.

2) At MLB.com -- or Pravda, as some unknown genius once dubbed it -- there is a daily Hot Stove Report, where a reporter culls the latest rumors from around the league. A sample entry might look like this:

Padres: The club is looking for a veteran starter to slot behind Jake Peavy, and have talked to free agents Greg Maddux and David Wells. GM Kevin Towers has also looked into the possibility of trading Ryan Klesko, which would open left field up for someone who doesn't play defense like a thumbless Keith Richards.

It makes for an interesting read, but there is rarely anything on the Giants. Until tonight, that is. The lurking horror, and I quote:

Giants:The club has interest in free agent outfielder Chris Singleton, who last played with the A's.

As a reserve, Singleton is the square peg in the round hole of the Giants bench. As a starter, he's the worst idea since Gary Cherone joined Van Halen. A right-handed hitter, whose only skills are good defense and the ability to put up decent numbers against lefties, is not what the Giants need at all.

^{Edit: Factco, a division of Westwood Blues, Inc., alerted me to a certain opinion among "scouts" and "executive-types" that Chris Singleton is a left-handed hitter. Whoops. I would be happy to have him on the bench, spot starting for Marquis Grissom in that case. As a starter, he's still a terrible idea.}

3) The Giants' plan should have been built around the acquisition of a pre-arbitration first baseman or center fielder. It would have been a nice trick to move Yorvit Torrealba and Pedro Feliz to the Brewers for Overbay, but the Brewers insisted on getting Chad Moeller in the Sexson deal. That pipe dream is no more. Working with the Cubs in an attempt to get Hee Seop Choi would have been a good idea, but he's now off the market. Choi and Overbay were the only two pre-arbitration first basemen worth giving up talent for, and there isn't a single pre-arbitration center fielder of any interest.

With that plan no longer likely, the Giants should at least look into cheap and realistically available players like, Mario Valdez, Ben Broussard, or Fernando Seguignol. I wouldn't put money on any of them to outperform J.T. Snow, or even Pedro Feliz for that matter, but if they free up salary for someone like Carlos Beltran or Kaz Matsui, it might be worth the risk. Nabbing one of those lefty bats makes sense if the front office is committed to trying Feliz as a starter, as it would provide a nice contingency plan, if not healthy competition.

4) Chris Singleton. They have to be kidding me.

^{Edit: Unless they are talking about the bench. Boy, did I choke that one.}

5) Some people can't find joy in watching Barry Bonds and, say, Randy Johnson match up. Their back doesn't arch in that split second when you know Bonds is committing to his swing. That instant when you realize, hoo boy, that slider is going to stay up in the strike zone, so what now? I pity those people.

Which introduces one of the worst pieces of writing I have ever read. It's a column from someone who is paid to write, and it sucks on multiple levels, if not in multiple, unseen dimensions. The author starts by asking the following rhetorical questions:

a. How many kids love Barry Bonds?
b. Does he stir the blood?
c. Does he excite the passions of baseball among us?

To which the obvious answers should, but don't, come:

a. A whole bunch.
b. Hell yes.
c. Double hell yes.

Then he waxes poetic about how he locked his best friend's bike to a tree because said friend drew a moustache on his Willie Mays poster. I wish I could make this stuff up.

And he starts new paragraphs.

For no reason.

None.

Feel the weighty drama as he isolates every other sentence. It's like, you know, Hemingway, man!

Or maybe Faulkner, I'm not sure.

I got the whole rip-on-the-stupid-sportswriter-'cause-he's-sooooo-inferior-to-me thing out of my system a while ago, but every once in a while, there's a moron who makes me fall of the wagon.

And I fell hard.

Very hard.

Off that wagon.

That figurative wagon of which I just wrote.

Right up there.

If I may steal a speech from the rightful successor to Citizen Kane: Mr. Vitez, what you've just written is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. At no point in your rambling, incoherent column were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in your audience is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

2003-11-23T23:49:00.000-08:00

All Sabean Wants to Do is Change Relievers, While He’s Driving in His Car

On December 7th, teams have to decide if they are going to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. It’s at this point, Brian Sabean has predicted, the market will be flooded with cheap middle relief help. Great idea, in theory, but if the free-agent market is a used CD bin, Sabean will have to sift through piles of Geggy Tah discs if he hopes to find anything of value. Thanks to the great new site, The Transaction Guy, there’s a list of arbitration-eligible players available here. Some of the more interesting relievers who might not be tendered a contract, grouped under hastily assigned labels:

Relievers who will be resigned by their current team, assuming the team isn’t run by cheap morons:
David Riske
Francisco Cordero
Chris Reitsma

Relievers who would be good additions, but might be too expensive:
Ben Weber
Chad Bradford
Cliff Politte
J.C. Romero
Scott Strickland
Kelly Wunsch

Relievers close to the right mix of cheap and promising:
Danny Kolb
Amaury Telemaco
Luis Vizcaino
Justin Speier
Kris Wilson

Really bad ideas, unless they have good seasons in 2004, in which case they were good risks all along, and remember I told you so:
Jaret Wright
Luther Hackman
Mike Lincoln
Pete Walker
Rocky Biddle
John Riedling

Options if Scott Eyre is non-tendered, and Chad Zerbe doesn’t float your cork
Trever Miller
Scott Stewart
B.J. Ryan

If Riske and Cordero are non-tendered, or available in trade, the Giants should at least sniff out the action. Both would be better setup options than Felix Rodriguez, but they would be expensive. The rest of the list isn’t anything that exciting, to be sure, but if you combine those options with the list of relievers already on the market, the Giants should find a reliever or two worthy of replacing Joe Nathan and Tim Worrell. A lot hinges on the iffy health of Robb Nen, so it might not be a bad idea to spend a little more than normal for a setup man. Come to think of it, maybe trading Nathan away wasn’t the best idea. A few of the above players will be offered arbitration, and the market will be a little thinner than I’m making it out to be.

2) There were a couple of interesting minor league free agents signed by the Giants in the past month. The initial signing of the offseason was first baseman Rob Stratton, who aspires to be Rob Deer without all that boring contact. He’ll be organizational filler, but a fun guy to watch as he alternates between hitting moon shots, and changing weather patterns in Madrid with artistically violent swings. Dig that secondary average.

The Giants resigned Brian Dallimore, official AAA utilityman of Waiting for Boof, which surprises me a little. I’m sure a lot of teams would offer better chances to stick on a major league roster, much less crack the 40-man roster. That’s not the Giants’ concern though, as he’s a good option to stash away in AAA, assuming there isn’t room out of spring training on the major league roster. For the unfamiliar, Dallimore hit .294/.346/.408 in his 2002 season, and .352/.427/.448 for the Fresno Grizzlies in 2003. He’s more of a poor man’s Craig Counsell than anything, but stands to make the major league roster if Pedro Feliz is traded or starting.

Adam Pettyjohn is a very interesting signing. He was a top prospect in the Tigers system before missing a good chunk of time to injury. Any time a pitcher is out for an extended period of time, the question is usually, “elbow or shoulder?”. The last thing you’d expect is a rare disease that involves the removal of the pitcher’s colon. Yikes. Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus wrote a nice piece about him and his recovery here. Pettyjohn returned to action last year with a little success, and jumped at the chance to pitch in Fresno, where he went to college. As an emergency option, he beats the heck out of the Brian Powells and Mike Johnsons the team was stockpiling in Fresno last year. Pettyjohn has a chance to claw his way back, and could even be in the fifth starter mix with a strong spring.

3) The Giants have announced they will add Dave Fleming to the regular broadcast team. From his limited action in 2003, he seemed very capable, and I’m looking forward to listening to him over the radio. Here’s hoping Jon Miller can teach him some great things. Like how to shave. Maybe a little something about the birds and the bees. Have you seen what the guy looks like? I haven’t felt this old since that cashier in Old Navy called me ‘sir’.

4) Sure, Peter Gammons is sort of the Jackie Harvey of the baseball world, but I like him, damnit. He obviously loves the game, and his winter reporting is always entertaining. In his latest Diamond Notes, Gammons writes the Giants are willing to trade Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonzo because of their salaries, but are also considering dealing for Derrek Lee and Jim Edmonds. In other words, if Gammons is accurate, the Giants have no plan to speak of. They’re kind of roaming around the mall parking lot, trying random car doors.

Trading Durham would be a mistake because he’s worth what the team is paying him, and there isn’t a reasonable contingency plan. Trading Alfonzo would be a mistake because he has no trade value right now, yet might still play up to his contract. Derrek Lee would be a fine addition if the Giants are willing to top the Orioles bid of Geronimo Gil, a Benny Ayala signed glove, and a player to be named, but I can’t see the Giants giving up talent for a rent-a-player, just as I can’t see them signing Lee to a long term deal. And I must have a little general manager’s blood in me, because I love the idea of acquiring Jim Edmonds even though he’s old, expensive, and injury-prone. A bad mixture, no doubt, but he would sate my thirst for a cleanup hitter, no matter how irrational an option he might be.

It must be November, because I’m getting worked up over a Gammons column. And if you don’t have the new Rjd2 album, you don’t know what you’re missing.

5) Allow me to introduce the first annual Make Your Own Joke, Because This One Is Too Damn Easy contest. Up for bid on eBay, a game used Neifi Perez bat. I think this is how Triumph felt when he met William Shatner.

2003-11-17T00:15:00.000-08:00

A Move as Unexpected as Dee Dee Ramone’s Rap Album

1) Brian Sabean doesn’t just keep his cards close to his vest; he’s playing Operation in the corner and pretending he wasn’t even dealt a hand. Of all the holes left by free agency, only the catching position had a cheap, major league ready replacement ready. Yorvit, we hardly knew thee. I don’t think the Giants were actively pursuing a catcher, but were contacted by someone in the Twins telemarketing department, whose job it was to extend the antennae and gauge the interest of every catcherless team. Sabean had, like the rest of us, written Yorvit’s name in pen into the crossword puzzle that is the Giants’ 2004 starting lineup.

I always pictured Sabean lacking a specific overall philosophy for constructing a roster, other than “get good players and win with them”. Maybe a poster in his office with a kitten dangling from a tree branch, the caption reading, “Hang in there!”, but no overarching manifesto. That may tie into the bit about the cards and vest, but in an interview on sfgiants.com, Sabean dropped hints about such a framework. He talked about the concept of the middle of the field, and how it was important to secure talent up the middle. This interests and excites me for several reasons:

a) Talent is hardest to find up the middle. If you have above average talent at shortstop, second base, catcher, and centerfield, and only average talent at the other positions, you should have a very, very nice lineup. With Pierzynski and Durham, the Giants have two very good players in positions where other teams probably don’t.

b) Neifi Perez is still under contract, and plays one of the positions Sabean was talking about. At no point did Neifi’s name come up in the interview, and Sabean listed shortstop as a hole which needed filling. I have no idea why he was signed to a two-year deal in the first place, but the impression was given that Neifi is not a solution.

c) I was able to entertain myself for several minutes by thinking up “Animal Farm”-like slogans for Sabean to hang around the Giants offices. “The Middle is the First and Last!”, or, “Those Who Stray From the Middle Get Rightly Left Behind!”.

I was also pleased at the flexibility shown by Sabean. He wasn’t looking to upgrade the catcher’s position, but something fell in his lap. Or, fell in his lap, and then demanded to be ably compensated. The more time that passes, the more excited I am about the trade. Pierzynski is a left-handed hitter, which is something the Giants needed. He’s one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, and, barring an unlikely non-tender in the future, under the Giants control for the next three years. The best part is he’s just entering his prime, as he hasn’t turned 27 yet. Improvement isn’t necessarily likely, but it wouldn’t be surprising.

Boof Bonser has potential. His fastball wasn’t what it was when he was drafted, but he had handled the aggressive promotions well. His lack of control would have driven me up the wall if he were eventually promoted, but he was a nice fall back option if Kevin Correia had polytechnical difficulties and needed some time in the minors to straighten things out. Joe Nathan would have been a cheap bullpen slot for one more year, but then he would have started to become expensive. Francisco Liriano is a fragile arm who might be able to withstand the rigors of being a starting pitcher in time, but the odds aren’t there. The value of these three might have been best measured in a trade package, as it’s conceivable, maybe likely, the trade value of all three will never be higher.

2) One of the interesting subplots with the trade is the subtext regarding Joe Nathan. Before the deal, Sabean was asked if Nathan was a possibility for the rotation, and the answer was almost dismissive. No, with a capital ‘N’, ha ha, next question, you silly person. Then, in the same interview discussed above, Sabean insinuated, if you liberally read between the lines, the guys we gave up ain’t all that, and we fleeced the Twins. “We scout our own players better than anyone”, was the rough sentiment, and “It wasn’t hard to cross that bridge”, was the exact quote.

I can’t imagine Sabean trading Nathan knowing his shoulder was about to devolve into powdered toast, but there was something the front office wasn’t too keen on. It might have been a mental or physical problem, but the tone surprises me. This was a player who would have been discarded long ago by most organizations, but the Giants stuck with him. I wouldn’t have put him on the roster to start the season, but the team did, and they were rewarded. To give up on him now, and to basically say, “ehhh, whatever”, is odd. Sabean didn’t seem adverse to doing some dumpster divin’ for some free agent bullpen help to replace Nathan, that’s for sure.

3) Some interesting quotes from ex-Giant Benito Santiago in the Contra Costa Times, as relayed by Joe “Wawease” Roderick. Yeah, you were the team, Benito. Just like Jeff Lynne was The Traveling Wilburys, and Bruno Kirby was “The Godfather II”. Decent additions, all of them, but not that far from replacement level. The quotes from Santiago are good enough to take apart one by one, but it’s not worth it. I forgot about him in my initial post of the offseason, but don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out.

Benito isn’t coming back, that much is certain. I still don’t know if I’d roll the dice and offer him arbitration. His value on the free agent market would tumble if the signing team had to forfeit a draft pick, but I can’t see him accepting arbitration and staying with the Giants as a backup. He’s too proud for that. The risk of him not finding a better offer is still there, and there’d be nothing more damaging to the Giants budget than having to pay a surly backup catcher $4 million. The sweet siren song of the draft picks a Type A free agent would bring might be too much to resist, though. If Greg Colbrunn could refuse arbitration and net the Diamondbacks a compensatory pick, I don’t see why Santiago wouldn’t follow the same path.

4) While I’m in sneering attack mode, I’ll toss out my theory that Bruce Jenkins was cut from his high school baseball team by a coach named Moonfoom Buttersnoops, because the guy just can’t handle goofy names. Okay, the guy’s name is Boof. We get it. Every time Bonser would find his way into Jenkins’ Column of Ellipses-Sprinkled Crap, there would be a crack about his name. No, not even a crack, an insinuation that allowing a player named Boof into the big leagues would crumble the foundations of organized baseball, and cause Abner Doubleday to rise from the grave and set Pac Bell on fire. Time to find another white whale, Bruce.

5) The Officially Sponsored Roster of Waiting for Boof has taken a hit recently, with the addition of Pierzynski, and the discovery that Raul Ibanez has spent his last three seasons in a park which dramatically inflates hitting statistics. An update:

c: Pierzynski ($3.0M)
1b: Travis Lee ($1.5M)/Feliz, or Snow if he’s cheap enough
2b: Durham
3b: Alfonzo
ss: Neifi
lf: Bonds
cf: Grissom
rf: Sheffield ($10M)

sp: Unspecified non-tender ($1.5)

This will leave the Giants about $7M to $10M over budget, and isn’t realistic, but it’s the way I would probably go. Another one I thought about was splitting Sheffield and Lee’s salary into Rich Aurilia and Mike Cameron. I still might prefer that one, actually. Email me your suggested rosters, and tell me how you’d spend money that isn’t yours.

6) Just to reiterate, I am not contemplating a name change because Boof was traded. The trade moves the blog’s name from pithy to ironic, and that’s fine with me. I am, however, thinking about changing the name to Wwaiting for Aardsma just for the heck of it.

2003-11-14T12:40:00.000-08:00

Super Important Hot Stove Breaking News Flash Update Spectacular

A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and unnamed minor leaguer

It seems like a fair trade on the surface. Nathan was excellent last year, but his shoulder is wonky, and will likely always have a touch of the wonk. His major league service time is about to translate into arbitration dollars, and his trade value isn't going to get higher. Boof is a high-risk, high-reward guy, but he'll be missed as a trade chit and emergency rotation possibility.

Pierzysnki isn't patient, but he's a good hitting catcher. He's young, relatively cheap, and a good bet to be better than Yorvit as a hitter. I'm going to go on a limb here, and predict this is the first move towards obtaining Richie Sexson. I think the Brewers would covet Yorvit more than anyone on the roster, and that'll be the starting point for the deal.

And, thanks for the concern, but the name of the blog didn't convey any sort of special attachment to the goofy-named ex-Grizzly. It's a play on "Waiting for Godot", a play where the protagonists wait for someone who never shows up, and my snarky way of saying we shouldn't hold our breath waiting for a Giants prospect. My biggest fear was that the guy was going to make the Giants roster, because then I'd really be screwed and have to consider a name change. "Waiting for Merkin" was a possibility, though that would sound like a blog for some freaky fetish site. Not because that's a problem in and of itself, but because it would just get lumped in with already established sites like, "Waiting for a Bullwhip and an Apology".

My first reaction is a positive one, with excitement that Yorvit is now a valuable piece of trade bait. Just how valuable, I have no idea, but he should be able to anchor a decent package.

^{edit: The unnamed minor leaguer is Francisco Liriano, who is a decent prospect. At least, decent for a guy who averages four innings a season. This was a lot to give up for Pierzynski, but the Twins are going to kick in another player or cash. I don't think this trade can be properly viewed until we know what else Sabean has up his sleeve. I am surprised at the amount of talent given up for a guy everyone knew the Twins were going to trade, but he is a solid player.}

2003-11-11T22:24:00.000-08:00

Frickin’ November: Or, How I Began to Feign Interest in the NBA

As the first annual Waiting for Boof Offseason Free Agent Survey Spectacular comes to an end, it’s time to examine the wild, wild world of middle relievers and bench jockeys.

Yeah, you’d better put some duct tape on those socks, lest they be blown the hell off your feet.

I’ve gone through the list of six-year free agents list in Baseball America, and cross-referenced it with the final 2003 minor league statistics. The most promising of the bunch are here, where they’ve been separated into categories of interest. If writing a baseball blog is the baseball fan’s equivalent to owning a 12-sided die, commenting on a list of six-year minor league free agents list with any pretense of authority is like writing a novel based on Rush’s 2112. Not only is it incredibly geeky, it’s astoundingly pointless, and likely to be awful by any measure. The scarlet ‘N’ on my forehead isn’t the problem, it’s just that I have no idea if Shigetoshi Hasegawa will be a better reliever than Dan Miceli in 2004. None. So, it stands I would have even less of a clue if Sean Fesh will be a better guy to have in the emergency kit at Fresno than Matt Duff.

Speculating on bullpens and middle relievers is useless, especially in November. Guessing as to what the bench will look like is even worse, mainly because the non-tenders aren’t going to be revealed for another couple of weeks. My 1500-word treatise as to why I would prefer Mark Johnson as the backup catcher over Alberto Castillo just wasn’t meant to be.

With that behind us, it’s time for the ultimate in hot stove action: the mock roster construction. The Giants have announced they are looking to cap their salaries at around $75 million. I don’t want to believe them. If you promise to take a kid to Disneyland, and you end up having to go to Bakersfield on business instead, that’s going to be one disappointed kid. However, if you tell the kid they’re going to go to Bakersfield to visit wrinkly old relatives, and you instead take them to Disneyland, now you’ve got the happiest kid in the world. The Giants know there’s going to be some stiff competition for the premium free agents, so they aren’t going to promise anything. It would just disappoint if they came away with nothing, and it wouldn’t help their bargaining position to announce they’re going to get some offensive help regardless of cost. Here’s hoping Vladimir Guerrero will play the part of Disneyland, with Brian Jordan playing the part of the aunt who could pass as a Shar-Pei.

As I've written before, the cost for the returning 17 or 18 players, after arbitration, will be around $64 million. If the Giants are being honest about their cost-cutting, there’s going to be about $10 million to play with. I’ll use that as the starting point, but still delve into the fantasy world of the big spenders. I’ll put the whole roster up for the first one, and then truncate the list to just the holes being filled. My salaries are guesses, so adjust in your head if you think I'm being embarrassingly naive.

The Evenly Spread Lineup

c: Yorvit Torrealba
1b: J.T. Snow, $2M
2b: Ray Durham
ss: Neifi Perez
3b: Edgardo Alfonzo
lf: Barry Bonds
cf: Marquis Grissom
rf: Raul Mondesi, $3M

sp: Jason Schmidt
sp: Kirk Rueter
sp: Jerome Williams
sp: Pat Hentgen, $3M
sp: Jim Brower/Kevin Correia

rp: Robb Nen
rp: Joe Nathan
rp: Felix Rodriguez
rp: Matt Herges
rp: Brower/Correia
rp: Scott Eyre
rp: Jason Christiansen

bench: Alberto Castillo
bench: Cody Ransom
bench: Todd Hollandsworth, $2M
bench: Andres Galarraga, $1M
bench: Pedro Feliz

Comments: That’s what you’ll get trying to plug several holes using one meager nest egg. The Durham/Snow/Bonds/Mondesi/Alfonzo front of the lineup could work out, but the Grissom/Yorvit/Neifi back is a great bet to be awful. If Schmidt doesn’t come back 100%, the rotation moves from shaky to Rangery.

Operation: Protect Barry

1b: Pedro Feliz
ss: Neifi Perez
rf: Gary Sheffield, $10M, or Vladimir Guerrero, $14M

sp: Scott Erickson, $.5M
sp: Brower/Correia

bench: Guys more cheap than good.

Comments: Eh. The rotation is really, really thin here. I love both Vlad and Sheffield, but if getting them means ignoring the rest of the roster, I’m against it. If the Giants decide to pick one up, and drop another $6-10M on starting pitching, it would be the way to go, no doubt.

Time to Change the Sheets
1b: Rafael Palmeiro, $6M
ss: Miguel Tejada, $12M
rf: Vlad, $14M
sp: Bartolo Colon, $11M
sp: Andy Pettite, $10M
rp: Keith Foulke, $5M
bench: Who cares?

Total roster cost: About $120M.

Comments: Why the heck not. It isn’t my money. It wouldn’t be the most expensive roster ever, that’s for sure.

Time to Change the Sheets: Edited for TV
1b: Javy Lopez, $7M
ss: Rich Aurilia, $3M
rf: Shannon Stewart, $6M
sp: Miguel Batista, $3M
sp: Greg Maddux, $9M

Total roster cost: About $95M.

Comments: With the fan support, constant sellouts, and shrinking window in which to succeed with Barry Bonds, that doesn’t seem like an outrageous payroll. If Miguel Batista isn’t your thing, then you can switch him out with Sidney Ponson, or someone of that caliber. If Lopez scares you, which is completely understandable, maybe Raul Ibanez would work, freeing money to upgrade RF or SP. If the Giants weren’t run by a large ownership group, but rather one ego-driven individual, I could see a roster like the above.

The Official Sponsored Lineup of Waiting for Boof

c: Yorvit
1b: Raul Ibanez, $3M
2b: Durham
ss: Aurilia, $3M
3b: Alfonzo
lf: Bonds
cf: Mike Cameron, $5M
rf: Grissom

bench: Hollandsworth, $1M
bench: Castillo
bench: Brent Butler, $.3M
bench: Galarraga, $.7M
bench: Feliz

sp: Schmidt
sp: Rueter
sp: Williams
sp: Greg Maddux, $9M
sp: Correia

bullpen: Nen, Nathan, Rodriguez, Brower, Herges, Zerbe, Christiansen.

Total cost: Around $87M, which is about $10M more than we are told to expect.

Comments: The lineup is a little more balanced than last year, and Maddux makes a huge difference in the rotation. Cameron helps the defense, and Correia can develop without too much pressure. Hollandsworth fits the role of a left-handed hitting outfielder who can cover centerfield. If Kenny Lofton would accept a part-time role, he’d be my first choice, but that doesn’t seem likely.

There are a lot of options on the free agent market, even if the Giants do decide to spend only $10M to fill all their holes. I’m not against Brian Jordan, necessarily, so long as he’s surrounded with other, more impressive additions. I was ready to write the Giants off after the incredible 1-2 free agent punch of Neifi Perez and Marquis Grissom kicked off last offseason, but felt confident after the signing of Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonzo. The seasons eventually turned in by Alfonzo and Grissom made me look like an idiot, but that’s not the point. I’ll wait until the roster movement is done to rip into ownership for not spending enough. It might be a front, or it might be a legitimate threat rendered irrelevant with intelligent spending.

As soon as the batch of players not offered contracts by their current teams comes out, I’ll update my desired roster.

^{Note: I used Sports-Wired.com to find career minor league stats for the free agent list I made here. If you can tolerate pop-up ads, it's an invaluable site.}

2003-11-05T00:13:00.000-08:00

Starting Pitchers

Ages ago, a bright young ABC executive had an idea. The idea was based on a need. The need was for great, attention-grabbing entertainment. The executive pitched the idea to the suits at the top, and they loved it. It was different and fresh, and it just might push the network over the top. With this, “Cop Rock” was born. Things didn’t work out as planned.

Sidney Ponson, the Theory was the best starter available at the trade deadline. Sidney Ponson, the Single Playoff Start didn’t work out as planned. So it goes. Kurt Ainsworth’s genetically re-engineered shoulder would have been nice to pencil into back end of the rotation, and Ryan Hannaman would have been a good prospect to hold onto. However, there’s nothing more useless than complaining about past trades, especially when speculating how the future roster will shape up. Somewhere, there is still someone choking on their own saliva thinking about the Russ Ortiz trade, as if Ortiz was the unbeatable dynamo the Giants were lacking in 2003.

Jason Schmidt, Kirk Rueter, and Jerome Williams are going to comprise 3/5ths of the rotation, barring injury. The decision facing the front office now, is who to plunk down in the last two openings. There are plenty of routes worth taking. If the Giants choose to spend their remaining ten million on offensive replacements, they’ll most likely stick with some combination of Kevin Correia/Dustin Hermanson/Jim Brower/cheap free agent, and trade for someone mid-season. Or, the team could get creative, and trade Kirk Rueter or Felix Rodriguez to free up salary for both offense and pitching. There are a lot of attractive pitchers available in trade, so long as the receiving team is willing to eat some salary, which the Giants won’t unless they can unload salary of their own.

The available group of pitchers can’t be neatly crammed into two neat classifications of useful and worthless. This will only help teams who, like the Giants, might have to shop at the Fourth Starter’s Outlet Store, hoping to find irregular and discolored starters at the fraction of the normal price. A quick and dirty sub-grouping:

Stop the salivating:

The top-tier, including Andy Pettite, Kevin Millwood, and Bartolo Colon. There is no way the Giants will pick up anyone from this group, unless Barry Bonds decides to defer $13M without interest over the next 35 years. Signing pitchers to huge, multi-year deals is a good way to shaft your team down the road, and the Giants are keen to that frame of thought. Pettite, Millwood, and Colon aren’t exactly a dominating group, either.

If you squint, you can make out a #3 starter:

The guys who could break out, and have a great year just as easily as they could have an average, or worse, year. This is a very small club, with Sidney Ponson, Kelvim Escobar and Miguel Batista the only ones available.

Reclamation projects: Used to be a good option, but they’ve stunk it up or been injured recently:

At least one of these pitchers will have a bounce-back year, performing for a team on the cheap. Esteban Loiaza and Wilson Alvarez are two recent examples. If the Giants want to save money, while letting pitchers like Boof Bonser and Correia develop, they will have to hope to guess right. The group is led by Jeff Suppan, Rick Reed, Pedro Astacio and Pat Hentgen. If the Giants blow their money on a Gary Sheffield/Vladimir Guerrero-type hitter, I would be more than willing to see how Hentgen would do as a fifth starter. Otherwise, why bother?

Reclamation projects: Used to be iffy, but had a promising 2003

Maybe there’s a reason to have these guys compete with Jim Brower, as long as the price is right. Wilson Alvarez, Brian Anderson, and Jose Lima would all be interesting people at the back end of a Pac Bell rotation. Both The Godfather and In the Army Now were interesting in two completely different ways, so that’s not an official endorsement.

Relievers who aren’t going to start again, but it’d be interesting to see them try.

Keith Foulke and LaTroy Hawkins are going to command healthy salaries, but few will want to try them in a role they have never had success with. Foulke is dying to start, so maybe he’d take a reduced contract for the opportunity. Fun to think about, but not likely at all.

Possible non-tenders

Not being entirely sure who is eligible for arbitration around the league, and with only a passing desire to spend the time to find out, I have no idea what this group will consist of. Damian Moss, go away.

Trade possibilities

The only pitchers available are the ones with contracts their team wants to unload. If the Giants aren’t going to pay for a free agent, they certainly aren’t going to give up players and money. If Curt Schilling were in another division, it would be tempting to break the bank and farm for him, but there’s no way the Diamondbacks would trade him to a rival. I wouldn’t be opposed to Jeff Weaver, provided the Yankees paid a healthy chunk of his salary.

Pitchers who make a ton of sense for the Giants

Greg Maddux. I don’t care if he’s in decline, I’m just comforted by the name. He’s pitched over 200 innings in 15 of the last 16 years, reaching 199 innings in the only year he didn’t. He isn’t likely to get more than a four-year deal, and he’s listed the Giants as one of the eight teams he’d consider. If the Giants sign Maddux, they can afford to skimp on the offense a little. I know this is just a fanboy hope trying to pass for serious analysis, but it would be a beautiful thing to see Maddux in a Giants uniform.

Back in elementary school, there was a popular gag which frequently made the rounds. A kid would ask an unsuspecting peer if they would ever kiss a rabbit between the ears. Everyone loves bunnies, so the answer was usually sure, which would prompt the joker to turn out his empty pockets. The pockets would represent the ears, see, and the makeshift bunny was, in fact, something inappropriate. What it lacks in subtlety, it makes up with the element of surprise, trust me. If the Giants don’t sign or trade for a pitcher good enough to complement Jason Schmidt, claiming financial strife as the reason, it would seem an awful lot like they were turning out their empty pockets. The fan, of course, would be the sucker who was rudely propositioned. Except it isn’t a joke this time; it’s something more sinister and callous. If you think about it, the analogy works on several levels. Or not.

The team is going to need to replace Sidney Ponson, or at least their idea of what it was in Ponson that made them mortgage the future for him. The market isn’t saturated with talent, but there are pitchers who would help the Giants out there. Counting on Kevin Correia to be a key member of the rotation would be a big risk, just as giving 30 starts to a hodge-podge of sub-mediocrity would. The Giants need to win while the Bonds window is still propped open, so there is some roster patching to be done. Let’s just hope we don’t have to settle for the scraps of the free agent market.

2003-10-27T00:49:00.000-08:00

The Outfield

Assuming for a moment there are SBC scientists working on grisly ways to insert Jose Cruz's knees into Ellis Burks' legs, which should be a given, what about the problem of Burks' advancing age? He wasn't much of a hitter last year, so the whole plan is pretty much shot. Imagine though, Cruz waking up in a bathtub full of ice, with a note reading, "We have taken your knees. Seek medical attention." I'd watch that movie. Even more so if Burks made a metallic, Lee Majorsy "sprrroing" sound every time he jumped.

The saga of Dr. Clemente and Mr. Maldonado isn't going to continue in San Francisco. I'm not going to place all the blame for the combustion of the 2003 Giants squarely on Cruz's shoulders, but I would have liked to see what would have happened if he had caught that ball. Or hit the other balls. Or locked himself in his bathroom, several days in a row. Forgetting the sordid details and moving on, this is not a bad offseason to be shopping for a right fielder. There are two great hitters on the market, with the Yankees likely to add only one. Though Gary Sheffield did play third base at one point in his career, which could foul everything up.

The only problem is the number of right fielders available is proportional with the number of vacancies. Even worse for prognosticating, teams happy with their right fielder could want someone for left field. Or a team losing a center fielder, like the Mariners, can just shuffle their outfield to fit the free agent. There are also about ten teams who could make securing an outfielder their top priority as easy as making it their last.

The Giants are somewhat flexible, in that Marquis Grissom can move to right if they pursue a center fielder. This lets in the possibility of Mike Cameron, or Kenny Lofton. The Giants are looking for more offense from the position, according to Brian Sabean, which might mean this is the spot they are looking to spend their limited reserve.

Here is a list of all the major league teams, with my best guess as to whether they're looking for an outfielder or not. My notes as to why I think certain teams may or may not be in the market are at the bottom.

The Contenders

Who: Vladimir Guerrero
How: Free Agent
Why: He's young, and the kind of special talent a team could build around. Bonds isn't going to be the best draw in town forever, and the team could use Vlad as a transition. He considers Felipe Alou one of his closest friends. It makes a lot of sense, damnit, just listen to me!
Why not: Jose Canseco was also one of these special young talents, which is to say there is no sure thing, and this team can't afford to eat $100 million on an injured or underperforming player over several years. The Giants don't do risks well.

Who: Gary Sheffield
How: Free Agent
Why: He can hit. Also, he's totally good friends with Bonds. Imagine when Sheff gets caught passing a note to Bonds, and Felipe Alou makes him read it in front of the whole team! It's totally going to say something like, "Kirk Rueter's wife is HOT!"
Why not: He's going to be expensive, and isn't getting younger. His defense is passable now, but it could be ugly in 2007. I get the feeling he's not going to turn down top dollar just because he and Bonds are canasta buddies.

Who: Jose Guillen
How: Free Agent
Why: He's always had the latent talent according to scouts, and he's a very athletic player coming off a breakout year.
Why not: It's sensible to be suspicious of the one-year wonders. Also, Guillen's strenght is hitting left-handed pitching, which is not a weakness of the Giants.

Who: Raul Ibanez
How: Free Agent
Why: He was a very good hitter in 2001 and 2002, and is a left-handed hitter.
Why not: He was marginal in 2003, and doesn't have the best defensive reputation. He's likely to be overpriced.

Who: Carl Everett
How: Free Agent
Why: Comedy. He can hit a little, too. In a perfect world, he'd platoon with Grissom to make a Voltron-like beast among center fielders.
Why not: Even if the Giants can stomach his famed volatility, which is a big if considering the value the front office places on chemistry, his price might be too high for his talents.

Who: Juan Encarnacion
How: Likely non-tender
Why: He's an average hitter, though a little weak for right field, and actually has hit right-handed pitchers better over his career. He's also fast, and can play good defense.
Why not: He makes a ton of outs, and would probably be a step down from Cruz.

Who: Mike Cameron
How: Free Agent
Why: His road stats from 2001 and 2002 suggest he's a fine hitter hurt badly by the acres of Safeco Field. His defense would be perfect for Pac Bell.
Why not: He's another hitter who hits lefties better, making him a poorer fit with the Giants. He won't be cheap, either.

Who: Brian Jordan/Reggie Sanders/Rondell White
How: Free Agents
Why: Not-too-distant glories
Why not: Injury prone, the lot of them, and questionable peaks even when healthy.

Who: Ben Grieve
How: Free Agent
Why: He's still young, and it sometimes pays to give second chances to players who seemingly lost all their ablities overnight.
Why not: He fields like Glenallen Hill, provided Hill ate the worm out of a questionable bottle of tequila first.

Who: Juan Gonzalez
How: Free Agent
Why: He has generally been overrated over his career, but he's always been a good hitter.
Why not: He'll cost money, and has always been wary about switching leagues. He probably wouldn't come to he NL.

Who: Raul Mondesi
How: Free Agent
Why: He's never had a great, or even good, on-base percentage, but he has above-average power. Throughout his career, his 2002 season is the only single season which would really disappoint me from a Giants right fielder in 2004.
Why not: He's surly and doesn't get on base. He also falls in the same category as Guillen, as far as his platoon splits are concerned. Also, he made $13 million last year, so he'll probably want a raise.

Who: Matt Stairs/Jeromy Burnitz
How: Free Agents
Why: Left-handed power.
Why not: They really shouldn't be starters at this point. If Burnitz and Sanders would agree to battle for playing time, it would be interesting, but just barely.

Who: Kenny Lofton
How: Free Agent
Why: His on-base skills are largely intact.
Why not: His defense isn't, and his lack of power would only be acceptable if the Giants put a Sexson-like hitter in one of the other holes.

Who: Todd Linden
How: Farm System
Why: He's cheap, and probably the future. And check out his dominating stats this year!
Why not: Oh, you actually checked. Probably not ready this year, to say the least.

Any of these outfielders could go to any of the teams with a hole. The Yankees could lust after Sheffield and Vlad, or they could sign Luis Castillo and Miguel Tejada, and move Soriano to center and Jeter to third. The Giants could sign Mondesi, or they could finish a brilliant misinformation campaign by signing Vlad. What the Giants do with this vacancy largely depends on what they do with the first base vacancy, which depends on how the market plays out. There are other trade possibilities, such as Richard Hidalgo or J.D. Drew, but it is doubtful the Giants would want to spend the money or the talent to trade for an outfielder.

Next week, filling out the rotation.

2003-10-21T22:23:00.000-07:00

Shortstops

For all we know, Rich Aurilia stands to inherit the fortune of a wealthy baroness aunt. In a twist of delicious irony, the will could stipulate that Aurilia live in a haunted mansion for five years after her death in order to receive the money. The mansion could be on Nob Hill, forcing a reluctant Aurilia to accept a below-market contract from the Giants.

Which is all just a fancy way of reporting the starting shortstop for the 2003 Giants will be Neifi Perez. The Giants are losing gobs of liquid money. In the time it took you to read that sentence, the Giants lost over $506 million. The money fans put down for World Series tickets is the only thing keeping the organization solvent right now. I'm sure when the Giants are able to catch up on their bills, they'll return the money with interest. It's doubtful the Giants are going to add a shortstop when they have one already under contract, considering the, ahem, financial woes of the team.

How bad is Neifi? I don't know. He killed the team as the only left-handed bat off the bench, but he is a very good defender. Depending on which metric you use, he could be a great defender. At various points in his career, he has led the California League, Pacific Coast League, and National League in total chances, putouts, and double plays. It's a lot easier to accurately gauge offensive worth, but there just might be something to the idea of having a great glove at short, and punting offense at a position.

That written, Neifi is a bad hitter. Very bad. Rap him on the back of the head with a rolled up newspaper, rub his nose in the awful mess bad. Bad, bad, bad. He wasn't as abysmal this season as he had been the last two, but, brother, he's not good. If the Giants substantially upgrade rightfield and first base, Perez wouldn't single-handedly kill the offense. As an eighth-place hitter who can generally make contact while refusing to walk, he has some potential hitting in front of a pitcher with two outs. However, if the Giants don't upgrade the offense elsewhere, it's going to get ugly.

The front office obviously anticipated a much different market last year for free agents. Perez's two-year, $4 million deal is probably the strongest anti-collusion argument that exists. It was a mistake contract, and one the Giants are surely regretting. A trade market for a $2 million Neifi Perez doesn't exist, unless the Giants pay a portion of his salary, but if Aurilia comes back on the cheap, it isn't out of the question.

The replacement options on the free agent market are less than inspiring, with virtually no one available in trade. Most of the shortstops who would improve on Aurilia are likely to be way overpriced. Here's a list of all the teams in the majors, broke into various categories of shortstop need. Considering the list, there is a chance Aurilia could come back.

The contenders

Who: Rich Aurilia
How: Free Agent
Why: He is an average shortstop offensively and just below average defensively, and that has value on a team looking to balance an offense around Barry Bonds. If Aurilia will settle for a one-year deal, there will be several teams who could jump into the bidding, but he should get better offers. If he wants a two-, or three-year deal, he should be in the Giants price range. Two years, $6 million wouldn't break the bank, and it might be the best offer he gets.
Why not: He isn't going to get better, and is a good bet to get worse soon. His range and bat are slipping. A three-year deal would be a mistake.

Who: Miguel Tejada
How: Free Agent
Why: He's a good young player.
Why not: He's waaaay out of the Giants price range. He'll get a huge deal for a team looking for a franchise player, which Tejada isn't. The Giants have a franchise player, even if only for the next couple of years.

Who: Orlando Cabrera
How: Free Agent
Why: He's established himself as someone comparable to Aurilia, but with better defense and youth on his side.
Why not: He'll get a four-, or five-year deal and will be out of the Giants price range. He does come with risks, and is no guarantee to perform at a .290/.340/.450 level.

Who: Neifi Perez
How: Already here.
Why: He can play defense, and the Giants are going to pay him anyway.
Why not: There are rumors he can't hit.

Who: Kaz Matsui
How: International Free Agent
Why: He is supposed to be Orlando Cabrera with sprinkles, offering doubles power, triples speed, and good defense.
Why not: He'll get a big contract if he decides to come to America, one much too rich for the Giants' tastes. He has never had the best batting eye, and that could catch up with him at a more advanced level.

Who: Tony Batista
How: Free Agent
Why: He has power, I guess.
Why not: He had an awful year in 2003, and was moved off short for a reason. It would make sense for a team like the Pirates or Expos to gamble on him, but not a team looking to contend right away.

Who: Rey Sanchez, Rey Ordonez, et al.
How: Free Agent
Why: No reason, really.
Why not: We already have one of those.

It seems like the Mets and Dodgers will fight for a piece of the Cabrera/Matsui/Tejada pie, with a possibility of teams like Seattle, Colorado, or Baltimore sneaking in. The Giants aren't likely to veer from the Neifi path unless something falls into their lap. Aurilia's agent isn't just throwing darts at The Sporting News and calling up random teams; he knows there aren't too many teams willing to give him a multi-year deal. The biggest competition for Aurilia will come from Colorado or Baltimore by my amateur calculations, but they should be looking at Cabrera as well. Aurilia could sneak back on the team, and that would be great, so long as they find two left-handed bats for the bench to make sure Neifi isn't the one pinch-hitting against John Smoltz in the NLCS next year.

Next week, the rightfield contenders.

2003-10-13T21:53:00.000-07:00

Lukewarm Stove Action

So, it has come to this. A lone nerd in the wilderness, hunkered over a computer, trying to compute the salaries for the Giants under contract for 2004. The veterans with the multi-year deals are easy enough to figure out, but the youngsters and arbitration-eligible types aren't as clear cut. I've spent a little less than two hours trying to find comparable players to Pedro Feliz and Joe Nathan, in the hopes of gauging the impact their salaries would make after an arbitration hearing. Then it occurs to me, the difference between a wild-assed guess pulled after several tumblers of Jack Daniels, and a guess made after calculated research can probably be measured in hundreds of thousands of dollars. A million or two, tops.

Welcome to the reality of offseason baseball. A time where Jim Brower's arbitration figure, and its impact on the composition of next year's team, is deemed interesting to even one human being. That person certainly isn't me, so I'm hoping one of you out there speaks up.

The other side to the offseason -- wishcasting and mock roster construction -- can be somewhat appealing. Less so if your team has just screwed themselves out of a chance at a World Series title, but still the best topic out there. As I write this, I've noticed the hardworking staff at Westwood Blues just beat me to a lot of the points I was going to make. I have no problems being redundant, nor do I have reservations about being redundant, so I'll just soldier on as if I'm the only blogger in the world. The Westwood faction should note that if not for a screening of Predator on Telemundo last night, they would be the ones making the consolation post. Harumph.

The Giants are spending about $59.1 million on a core of 10 players. They retain the rights to eight others, five of which are eligible for arbitration. I think. The arbitration rules for baseball involve terms like "service time", "accruing", and "the first bloodletting past harvest moon nigh", so I might be a tick off on Chad Zerbe's eligibilty. The salaries for the core can be found here. The youngsters and arbitration-eligible types, with speculated salaries, are here. I anticipate only minor changes from these 18, as it is doubtful any will price themselves out of the Giants market, though one from the Eyre/Christiansen/Zerbe pool could be traded or released. The total will be around $64 million for 18 players, if the Giants choose to keep Herges. Robb Nen's $9 million absolutely kills this team, and could be the difference between Vladmir Guerrero and Ben Grieve.

Of the free agents the Giants have, I'd rate them like this:

Decent chance of coming back:
Hermanson
Galarraga

Back only if the salary is right:
Snow
Hammonds
Young
Ponson
Herges
Aurilia

Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out:
Benard
Worrell

Actually, wait, let the door cause physical pain before leaving:
Cruz, Jr.

That leaves six or seven roster spots for:

Starting 1B
Starting RF
Starting SS
Right handed reliever
Fourth starting pitcher
Fifth starting pitcher
Bench players

The labels will change if Brower is made a starter, for instance, but the idea will remain. The wild world of offseason speculating and unrealistic roster construction begins with first base. I'll include only players of a realistic nature, though it's tempting to conjure up ways for Peter Magowan to dip into his own pocket for Carlos Delgado or Mike Sweeney.

The Possibilities
Who: Derrek Lee
How: Trade
Why: He's right-handed and powerful, a combination which would help the Giants in Pac Bell. The Marlins have Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell and Jeff Conine all under contract for next year.
Why not: He'll probably get $5-6 million in arbitration, which would eat up a good chunk of the remaining budget. That wouldn't be too ridiculous for a free agent, but the Giants would have to give up some real prospects as well.

Who: Richie Sexson
How: Trade
Why: Dude's good.
Why not: He's even more expensive than Lee, both in actual money and quality of prospects needed to obtain him. If the Giants go for the money-be-damned route, which they are most certainly not, he's available.

Who: J.T. Snow
How: Free agent
Why: He isn't Lance Niekro or a full-time Pedro Feliz. There aren't going to be teams beating down his door, with most teams set at first base. He'll be a late addition to a non-contender if he holds out for money, if last winter is any indication, so he could come cheap. He also saves 3829 errors from his infielders each innning. Look it up.
Why not: He is just barely mediocre as a hitter, and that's in his "on" years. If he were to be absolutely terrible next year, no one would be surprised. He's an option only if his price is $1 million or less, and only for one year.

Who: Pedro Feliz
How: Already here
Why: He's cheap. Some in the organization believe he has potential. He did fine against right-handed pitching for the first time in his career, which does bode well for his future. If the improvement is for real, and he does better against lefties, he would be a great choice for the price.
Why not: I'm not sold. His improvement against righties could be a statistical blip. His upside isn't as good as his downside is ugly.

Who: Scott Spiezio
How: Free agent
Why: We could scream obscenities at him for 81 home dates. He is similar to Snow in his tolerable talent-to-cost ratio.
Why not: In his best year, he was just a warmed over J.T. Snow. Pac Bell would chew him up.

Who: Rafael Palmeiro
How: Free agent
Why: He's old, but he can still hit.
Why not: He's expensive and he wouldn't come to the N.L. That's enough of that pipe dream.

Who: Travis Lee
How: Free agent
Why: There are worse people to take a chance on. Maybe.
Why not: He has a long history of being worse than Snow, which isn't good for anybody. If the eventual choice is Feliz, Lee would be a decent guy to have in a glass case for an emergency.

Who: Eric Karros
How: Free agent
Why: coughcoughhackhackgaggagaggagag
Why not: Just because.

Who: Fred McGriff and Robin Ventura
How: Free agents
Why: "Hey, I've heard of that guy!" There's a slight chance they aren't finished.
Why not: They're finished.

Who: Javy Lopez
How: Free agent
Why: He's versitile enough to catch, and he had a tremendous season.
Why not: He's not as good as he was, but he'll be looking to get paid like he is. He'll be some team's Greg Vaughn in 2006.

Who: Doug Mientkiewicz
How: Trade
Why: He's Snow with a higher average, and he's a known quantity
Why not: He's about to be paid more than he's worth through arbitration, and he'd cost some talent as well.

Who: A random minor league six-year free agent.
Why: Cost.
Why not: Sabean would sooner stick Tony Clark at first than a free-talent type, and I don't blame him all that much. The minor leagues aren't exactly ripe with free talent right now. One exception might be Fernano Seguignol, who hacked his way to AAA glory this year. It'd be a mini-coup if Sabean got him, if only as evidence Sabean can find unconventional solutions for holes in the starting lineup. He's made benches from players like Felipe Crespo, but he's unlikely to gamble on a player to step right in and start.

I'm going to hold back on deciding on my choice, as well as my prediction, until I can survey the rest of the positions. I'm leaning toward starting Feliz, and picking up a Travis Lee-style player to back him up, if not platoon. I'm not geeked about the idea, but it would work if the saved money was applied usefully.

Next week, the shortstop contenders.

2003-10-06T23:50:00.000-07:00

It Will Never End, Will It?....

"He knows how to find the twisty compensation in this business of losing, being a loser, drawing it out, expanding it, making it sickly sweet, being someone carefully chosen for the role." -- Don DeLilo, describing a distraught Giants fan in Underworld

"So it goes." -- Kurt Vonnegut

"Baaaa. Baaaaaaaaa. Munch munch Baaaaaaaaaa." -- Jose Cruz, Jr., among several others

Of course. I was looking to the second round. Boy, I sure wouldn't want to lose to Dusty. Man, the Braves hitting scares me. After Jason Schmidt's beautiful Game One performance, I started to drift. Even as Sidney Ponson demonstrated that his net worth would be eventually measured in draft picks, there was no reason to be scared. If the Giants could have won just one in Florida, they would have set up a Game Seven in San Francisco, with Jason Schmidt starting. The Marlins could have rustled up all the Josh Becketts and Juan Pierres they wanted, there was no way the Giants were going to lose that game.

Infielders boot grounders. It happens, maybe as often as every couple of games. For Bill Buckner or Tony Fernandez to commit a costly, series losing error is beyond unfortunate, but it isn't a freak occurance. It's like the roulette wheel stopping on green 0; you almost forgot the possibility existed, limited your outcomes to red or black, and having the harsh reminder come after you are already broken. Dropping a flyball like Cruz did, though, now that's special. That's a feral cat covered in honey jumping onto the roulette table, and leaving with thousands of dollars in chips stuck to its fur. It just doesn't happen. There's Snodgrass' Muff, a play from almost one hundred years ago which is still remembered by name. After that, nothing. I'm probably forgetting something like Claudell Washington losing one in the lights, in that crucial series in '83, against the team his team needed to beat, but I'm willing to reckon there just aren't that many comparables. Brant Brown dropped a fly ball in 1998, allowing to Brewers to win a wild game, which could have cost the Cubs a playoff spot. Neifi Perez hit a homerun for the Rockies against the Giants, sparing Brown from infamy. That chowder-like substance sploshing around your ankles is irony. No, wait, humiliation. Either or, really.

Not that Cruz's error was the only thing preventing the Giants from advancing to the NLCS. No, no, this was a group effort. No one could knock runners in except for Edgardo Alfonzo, and no one could field. The bullpen was the Wendy's Value Menu Chili in situations which begged for Immodium A-D. The starting pitching wasn't what was expected from a team which won 100 games.

One hundred games. Damn.

Still, Cruz's error was the defining moment of the series. I was driving over the Siskiyou Mountains, desperately trying to latch onto a radio signal. "Phssszzzzzzzt......Conine pops it up......phsszzzzztttzzzzt.....Cruz is under it.......ffffffffttt....ops the ball!......fphszzzz...t the hell happened there?" Worrell then walked the next batter, and then, as Krukow would say, it was time to wake up and pee; the world was on fire.

Why can't this team just lose? Why do they have to write the greatest chapters in the history books of other teams? Stupid Angels. I mean, Marlins.

2) There was no reason to start Jason Schmidt, even before the extent of his injury was fully known. Jerome Williams was going to start a series-deciding game. Schmidt has rarely pitched on short rest, so there was no guarantee he would have been the same pitcher we saw in Game One. The second-guesser's chorus was silenced by the news that Schmidt's tendon was basically a buzzard-gnawed piece of prosciutto, and I suppose that's a good thing. I don't think you can be in favor of starting Schmidt in Game Four if you weren't in favor of him starting Game Five as well. Or Games Two or Three, both. No one knows how he would have responded to the short rest, but either you accept the fact your best pitcher is only going to be able to pitch two games in the series, or you're in favor of him starting every other game.

Maybe Jerome Williams would have been more focused/relaxed/effective/whatever at Pac Bell, and that would have been worth the risk involved in using your best pitcher in an unfamiliar situation. Doubtful, but somewhere short of ridiculous. Now, imagine this: Jason Schmidt, fully rested, pitching in Pacific Bell Park for a series-deciding game. That's the best situation the Giants could have hoped for, in any round.

3) I almost went back to doing a daily blog for the playoffs, but it wouldn't have made much sense with my inability to even watch most of the games. One thing I'm upset I didn't get to, however, is the ridiculous, asinine, gawdawful roster construction. Twelve pitchers for a five game series? If Alou fought for that, he needs to retire. Jason Christiansen and Scott Eyre each faced one batter in the series, which makes sense, as the Marlins lack a single left-handed batter worth worrying about. The ever-so-important fifth starter, Dustin Hermanson, pitched an inning. Three pitchers, four games, less than two innings. Of course, the series came down to the Giants not having a pinch runner for the ninth inning, with Eric Young collecting cobwebs. J.T. Snow, lumbering around third, lopsided wagon wheels falling off and spontaneously combusting; now that's an image that'll make you take steel wool to your retinas.

That Alou carried five bench players into the playoffs, in a short series, is a disgrace, and maybe the worst managerial decision made by a Giants manager in the past twenty years. Starting Livan Hernandez over Rueter for Game Seven was defensible, even if only for the wrong reasons of what Livan was in 1997. Pulling Russ Ortiz after 80+ pitches in the seventh inning of Game Six was dumb, but the bullpen had held their ground all year. They had earned the trust. Dragging Jim Brower, Hermanson, Eyre, and Christiansen all into a five game series shows an utter lack of strategy and baseball acumen. I've supported Alou this year, even when others were getting down on him for his lineup construction, but he needs to go if his input was the primary force in shaping that roster.

Can we still sneak Greg Bruso back?

4) The trade for Sidney Ponson is basically a horrible failure at this point, pending the success of the compensatory picks the Giants will recieve. I was for the Ponson trade at the time, and I still agree with it to a point. It all came down to what kind of pitcher you thought Ponson was. I was sold, thinking he had turned a corner in his career, and was the best available pitcher. As it turns out, he wasn't Pedro Martinez, and giving up a chunk of the future for any less is likely to hurt. He won't be back, and I'm not sorry at all. I reluctantly feel that way about a lot of players. Jose Cruz wasn't a bad player, just the worst possible player for the worst possible time. I don't know if I ever want to see Tim Worrell in a crucial situation again, either. The Giants have a lot of decisions to make, but most of them should be obvious.

5) I'll start on the monotonous parade of off-season wishcasting, and fanboy roster construction next week. Topic one: How I Plan To Spend Other People's Money On Gary Sheffield and Javier Vazquez. Only about 100 days until 2004. Sigh.

2003-09-28T20:31:00.000-07:00

The 1st Annual Playoff Preview Extravaganza Spectacular Special Spectacular

1) I thought about one of these:

Positional Analysis-

Second Base:
Luis Castillo and Ray Durham are both leadoff hitting second basemen who can get on base and make things happen. Durham's health is a concern, so Castillo just edges him out. Advantage: Marlins

Left Field:
Barry Bonds has more of an impact on each individual game than any player in the past eighty years, if ever. Jeff Conine has been a nice pickup, but he's no match for Bonds. Advantage: Giants

Total: Even
The Marlins and Giants are even by our calculations, so it's really just a tossup. Prediction: Giants in eight.

However, I figured every major site would do one. There should not be rational thought involved in predicting a playoff series, so allow me to present the Completely Irrational Guide to the NLDS:

a. Point: This season, the Giants are 1-1 in games I have recorded to watch later on in the day, which I will surely have to do for at least the first two games of the series.

Counterpoint: The Giants are 1-0 in games where I have screwed up the automatic VCR timer, and missed the game entirely. There's always the chance I'll do it again

Advantage: Giants

b. Point: The Giants completed half of the Poetic Justice Tour last year, eliminating the Cardinals and Braves, and making up for both '87 and '93, respectively. The Marlins ('97) have yet to get their medicine, and the Yankees ('62, so I'm told) aren't far behind.

Counterpoint: The Giants screwed up a storybook championship run last year, eliminating the mourning Cardinals. That negates any Poetic Justice idea, and then some.

Advantage: Marlins

c. Point: The Marlins won the World Series in 1997 with huge contributions from Livan Hernandez.

Counterpoint: The Giants lost the World Series in 2002 with huge contributions from Livan Hernandez. After the Ark of the Covenant which is Livan was opened, it has proved impossible to contain the demons that emerged. These spectral forces will not be sated until Nate Bump pitches six perfect mop-up innings in game five. Avert thine eyes!

Advantage: Marlins.

d. Point: The Marlins finished the year hot, and were the best team in the National League after the All-Star break.

Counterpoint: The Giants finished the year by roughing up Wilson Alvarez, which put a crimp in the rousing comeback story of an entity which previously screwed the Giants. Sounds like the Marlins in every way.

Advantage: Giants

e. Point: The Marlins play in a stadium which used to honor a human being. Now, it honors crappy jackets.

Counterpoint: The Giants played in a stadium which practically invented the stadium naming rights bit. That kind of stench doesn't just wash off with a little Lava soap.

Advantage: Even

f. Point: The Giants benefited from the ghastly dismantling of the '97 Marlins, obtaining Robb Nen for a flat keg of Amstel Light.

Counterpoint: Nen hasn't pitched all year, for one. Also, while the Marlins were an embarrassment to baseball, they were more importantly an embarrassment to Bud Selig and his legacy.

Advantage: Giants

g. Point: The Marlins have won a World Series.

Counterpoint: The San Francisco Giants have not. Can we please, please, please, please have one?

Advantage: Marlins. No one likes a whiner.

h. Point: The Marlins fired their mascot to pinch pennies, a move which saddened lil' Marlin fans everywhere.

Counterpoint: The Giants have a crappy mascot, whose one gag consists of rhythmically thrusting his seal pelvis in people's faces.

Advantage: Marlins

i. Point: Dontrelle Willis eats at the pleasantly mediocre California Pizza Kitchen, a franchise where I once saw the pleasantly mediocre J.T. Snow.

Counterpoint: Jerome Williams is from Hawai'i, where they consume Spam by the hectare.

Advantage: Giants

j. Point: Earlier in the season, I mentioned the Marlins as the team I'd most like to face in the first round.

Counterpoint: You did what? Idiot.

Advantage: Marlins

Adding it up, it doesn't look good, but these sorts of analyses always have some rigged "Super Clutch Factor X" they can throw in at the end to support the author's preconceptions.

k. Super Intangible Clutch Factor X: Peter Magowan engineered the effort to keep the Giants in San Francisco. Jeffrey Loria sunk his fangs into the Expos franchise, and didn't pull out until he could taste sternum. Rewarding that guy with anything is a Super Intangible Clutch Travesty.

Advantage: Giants

Series prediction: Unless the Giants win every game by fifteen runs, I'll end up looking like Al Pacino before his morning coffee.

2) Here's how I would stack the roster for the playoffs:

Starting Position Players - (8)
Durham
Snow
Bonds
Grissom
Alfonzo
Aurilia
Cruz
Santiago

Staring Pitchers - (4)
Schmidt
Ponson
Rueter
Williams

Bullpen - (7)
Worrell
Nathan
Rodriguez
Brower
Eyre
Christiansen
Herges

Bench - (6)

Neifi
Young
Galarraga
Torrealba
Feliz
Hammonds

I've ended my quest for the phantom left-handed bat. Todd Linden didn't look ready for anything resembling postseason action, and neither did Marvin Benard. Apropos of nothing, Benard had as many RBI this year (four) as did Alberto Castillo and Ruben Rivera.

Pedro Feliz keeps getting big hits, and, hell, he has done well for the team. Sixteen homers in 235 at-bats isn't bad at all, and, don't look now, he has been almost as good against right-handed pitching as against the lefties. I apologize to Feliz for being so harsh, even though he'll eventually suck just to spite me.

This bench is a little better than last year's. I'd rather have Ramon Martinez than Neifi, but I'd also prefer Eric Young, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Andres Galarraga to Tom Goodwin, Shawon Dunston, and Damon Minor by a healthy margin.

3) Ugh. I don't know if I'm ready for this. Good luck, team.

2003-09-23T23:00:00.000-07:00

The Waiting Game Sucks. Let's Play "Hungry Hungry Hippos"!

1) The series against Houston leaves me conflicted. I don't want the Cubs in the playoffs, for both strategic and irrational reasons, so I wouldn't have been too upset if the Astros won a couple of games. Yet, it would be sweet to wipe the Astros out, allowing Brian Sabean to do a little tap dance on Jeff Kent's figurative Moustache of Ignorance. Kill 'em all, and let God sort 'em out, I guess. Ponson could use a solid start going into the playoffs, so I'll just root for the Cubs to lose out the season, with the Astros taking their revenge against the Brewers.

2) Every time I rag on Pedro Feliz for having the audacity to not be left-handed, he wins a game. As a disciple of the Earnest Ragging Principle, I know it would be futile to intentionally bash Feliz and try to sway the baseball gods. It's never been to big of a problem for me to honestly rip on Feliz, who is solely responsible for the Giants not making the playoffs in 2001, "The League of Extraordinary Gentleman", and an increase in dropsy outbreaks. However, now I'm caught in the Earnest Ragging trap. I'm officially wondering if Feliz could be useful, which is a guarantee he'll stink up the playoffs. Realizing this doesn't do any good, because behind the guarantee of futility is the hope he's useful, which negates the earnestness of the ragging. I prepared a PowerPoint presentation to help explain it all, but it crashed my computer.

3) Lost in the epic struggle for the right to host an extra playoff game in the NLCS, should the Braves also advance, is Brian Dallimore. Dallimore, 29, was signed as a minor league free agent in the winter, and he led all of AAA with a .352 average. After a career season, he was intially caught in the number game of the 40-man roster. In order to be called up, a player needs to be on the 40-man roster, and the team was understandably not willing to drop players like Jason Ellison or Carlos Valderrama to make room. However, once Jesse Foppert's UCL snapped, the Giants could have moved Foppert to the 60-day DL, and rewarded Dallimore with his first big league callup. Dallimore likely won't ever be anything more than a fringe player, and I'm certainly not advocating replacing anyone currently on the Giants bench for the playoffs. It just would have been a nice, familiar story. Player toils in the minors, player has great year in minors, player gets cup of coffee.

My knowledge of baseball rules minutiea is far from complete, so there is probably something I'm missing. I was rooting for the guy, though.

4) When the Giants clinched the divsion, it didn't register how special a season it has really been until I was bombarded with an array of tidbits. The whole wire-to-wire thing was a little overplayed, as it isn't quite as rare in the three-division setup, but it was still impressive. Hearing this is the first time the Giants have made the playoffs in back-to-back years since the '30s almost made me tear up. Sure, the expanded playoffs helped, but it doesn't take away that it is an outstanding time to be a San Francisco Giants fan.

That written, I'll go out on a limb and publicly reveal I'm hoping they win the World Series. In 1997, there was the gee-willikers, aw-shucks feeling of watching a ragtag band of misfits upset the Dodgers. It was a great season, and there was a sense of optimism for the next season. After all, Shawn Estes was on his way to a magical career, and there was the off chance Jeff Kent could repeat his career year. The Giants had the best team in baseball in 2000, and that failure still stings, almost as much as the 2001 horror show, which wasted historic seasons from both Barry Bonds and Rich Aurilia. This postseason, however, will be a nervous, panicky affair -- in part, screw it, all because of how close the team came last year.

One playoff series at a time, sure. It's hard not to look ahead.

5) Horrible Dusty flashback #3,279: Bringing in Aaron Fultz in Game 2, with two runners on, against Garrett Anderson. Anderson has never had much of a platoon split against lefties, and has even hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handers over the past three years. Fultz had this odd platoon split in 2002 where he could get players named Al Leiter out, but was absolutely pounded by players not named Al Leiter. He was the third lefty in the bullpen, against a team with about two left-handed hitters worth worrying about, and that might be the worst punchline of last season. It didn't end well, in case you were wondering. Base hit, game tied.

6) Whether the Giants end up with the best record in the NL or not, they will likely face the winner of the Marlins/Phillies race. I pointed out the lack of success the Giants had against opponents with a winning record after the first two months of the season, but that is no longer the case. Against teams not yet officially eliminated, the Giants are 32-17, and that doesn't include the ridiculous 14-5 mark they sported against Arizona. Only the Expos, Cubs, and Mets had a winning record against the Giants this year.

It's easier to be pessimistic about the Giants chances -- the odds are against every team, and only one in eight are going to buck those odds -- but there's a lot to like. I wouldn't say the glass is half full, but it isn't half empty, either. Maybe the glass is half full, but with Mountain Dew. There's always the possibility a desk will need to be urgently stripped and restained, so the glass still holds some promise. If you squint, just right....

2003-09-17T22:11:00.000-07:00

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

There's still a lot more to go, but this night is spoken for.

2003-09-14T21:55:00.000-07:00

Five Easy Pieces

1) Todd Linden getting the game-winning hit on Sunday was a nice twist, and it can't hurt his admittedly slim chances to make a postseason roster. The last few months have seen my posts start to devolve into Phil Hartman's impression of Admiral James Stockdale, substituting "Gridlock!" with "Left-handed bat!". There isn't a point to having Pedro Feliz on the same roster as Jeffrey Hammonds and Andres Galarraga, at least not with the starting lineup heavily stacked against left-handed pitching to begin with. Felipe Alou's sick fascination with the idea of Neifi Perez as an ace-in-the-hole righty-crunching pinch-hitter isn't helping anyone, with the obvious exception of the fine folks who manufacture Zoloft. And maybe those who get a kick out of hyphens.

Linden isn't some secret weapon waiting for someone to speak his name aloud three times -- heck, he's jostling with Marvin Benard for position on the usefulness spectrum -- but he's a left-handed bat with a modicum of power. That's all I want. Sending up Hammonds or Feliz against Braden Looper, much less a pitcher like Octavio Dotel or John Smoltz, isn't likely to key a game-winning, late inning rally. Linden might not be ready for the elite right-handed relievers of the league yet, but we already know Feliz isn't. It doesn't seem like there's much to lose, with the exception of a little positional flexibility.

2) Peter Gammons wrote a good article recently, echoing something I touched on before the season started. The Reader's Digest version, and stop me if you've heard this one before: Bullpens are like boxes of chocolate; sometimes you expect a delicious dark-chocolate covered piece of toffee, but unwittingly ingest some heinous nougat-mayonnaise hybrid, so you release his goggled ass, only to have him sign with the Angels and reel off three good seasons in a row.

Or something like that.

Relievers are tricky to forecast. My favorite example will always be Alan Embree, who can be Goose Gossage one year, and Anthony Edwards the next. One thing that stands out in Gammons' column is the inclusion of Tim Worrell as an example of how relievers can pleasantly surprise, a sentiment which comes as everyone in the greater Bay Area has lost all confidence in him. Worrell's average fastball and menagerie of sloppy breaking pitches is reminiscent of Rod Beck, right before Beck's Tommy John surgery. That's not exactly a vote of no-confidence, but it isn't something I want to see with a one run lead in any sort of Game Seven. Beck exited the toughest jam of his career by getting an Eddie Murray who was Carltoning out his career to hit into a double play. Hoping for Worrell to get as lucky in a series-defining moment might be too much to ask.

3) After referring to a popular MVP candidate as Albert "How Green Was My Valley" Pujols, a couple of readers too lazy to click on the hyperlink asked what the reference was. In 1942, "How Green Was My Valley" won the Oscar for Best Picture in 1942, over both "Citizen Kane" and "The Maltese Falcon". Which of those films represents Barry Bonds is up to you. The ego-driven genius and pain of Charles Foster Kane is an easy choice, but there's something to be said for Bonds slapping around National League pitching -- played by Peter Lorre -- and exclaiming, "When you're slapped, you'll take it and like it!"

With the season winding down, it's looking like Bonds will win his eleventy-first MVP award. The Cardinals are hanging by their fingernails in the Central race, almost as close to the Pirates as the Astros. It's time to root hard for the Astros, because their division title would mean the scary pitching staff of the Cubs isn't in, and Bonds has mostly sewn up the MVP. You can root hard for Jeff Kent to take a long wash off a short truck after the regular season is over, but he's the man for now.

4) The Dodgers are only 2.5 games out of the wild card. With seven games remaining against the unwashed heathen from down south, the Giants are in the position to be major spoilers. While that would be fun, imagine the hooplah if a succession of horrific losses handed a playoff spot to the Dodgers, and the Dodgers went on to win the World Series. Self-hating Giant fans everywhere would have water cooler fodder for years. It would be exciting to see who would become a permanent scapegoat, deserved or not, in Giants lore, taking their place along side Livan Hernandez and Salomon Torres. Will it be Eric Young with a booted groundball? Kevin Correia not getting out the first inning in two straight games? Neifi Perez in the library with the wrench? The mind boggles, though this whole scenario only serves to point out what an abomination the wild card is the years the Giants aren't in contention for it.

5) At the risk of pounding the whole "people who find this site through an odd web search" thing into the ground, it wouldn't be right to not mention the person who found Waiting for Boof by entering "shirtless Dustin Hermanson" into Google. I just have to write my mind in this case. You know, mysterious visitor, the beefcake calendar industry has been hit hard by the abundance of free images on the internet. So instead of canvassing the web for handouts, why not head down to your local Waldenbooks, and pay for a copy of "365 Days of Shirtless Dustin Hermanson", or "Dustin Off The Pecs: The Wall Calendar"? You'll feel better about yourself, and the beefcake calendar industry will have a fighting chance, damnit.